Division Remains Over the Fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad

There are believed to be as many as 1,000 armed opposition groups in Syria, commanding an estimated 100,000 fighters. Many of the groups are small and operate on a local level, but a number have emerged as powerful forces with affiliates across the country or formed alliances with other groups that share a similar agenda. Since the Syrian Civil War, the enlisted members of the Syrian military have dropped by over half from a pre-civil war figure of 325,000 to 150,000 soldiers in the army in December 2014, due to casualties, desertions and draft dodging. Syria, known as Syrian Arab Republic, was founded on April 17, 1946. The country has a population of more than 22 million, with approximately 5,000 fleeing every day. More than 9 million Syrians have been displaced by the four-year conflict, 6.5 million of whom remain in the country and more than 3 million of whom have fled to immediately neighboring countries, according to the European Migration Policy Center. 

Syrians express opposition to Russian plan to end conflict

November 11, 2015

AP - A Russian proposal to end Syria's conflict that would include early presidential elections faced opposition from both sides on Wednesday, as deep divisions remained over the fate of President Bashar Assad.

Syrian legislator Sharif Shehadeh, a member of the ruling Baath party, told The Associated Press there will be no presidential vote before Assad's latest term ends in 2021. He added that parliamentary elections are an internal Syrian affair and that it was still too early to hold them.

His comments came a day after Russia circulated a document on ending Syria's conflict that calls for drafting a new constitution in up to 18 months. The charter would be put to a popular referendum and followed by an early presidential election.

Shehadeh said the proposal is not official yet.

"Regarding presidential elections there will be no talk about it. The president has a term and when it ends then we can talk about it," Shehadeh said. 

Assad was elected for a third seven-year term last year in an election boycotted by the opposition and panned by its Western supporters.

Prominent Syrian opposition figure [opposing President Assad and the ruling Baath party] Haitham al-Maleh said Russia, which began launching airstrikes in support of Assad's troops on Sept. 30, is an "occupation force" in Syria, adding that the opposition [against the Assad regime] will not accept any role for Assad during the transition.

Al-Maleh, a senior member of the Western-backed Syrian National Coalition, said by telephone from Egypt:

"We will not accept that the regime stays even for 24 hours. Bashar should be detained and put on trial." 

The document, obtained Tuesday by The Associated Press, makes no mention of Assad stepping down during the transition — a key opposition demand. It only mentions that "the president of Syria will not chair the constitutional commission."

Al-Maleh said Russia wants "the current regime to stay," adding that the Russian air campaign "will be defeated."

The document was circulated ahead of a second round of talks in Vienna on Saturday among key governments on both sides of the Syrian conflict [the civil war between Assad forces and opposition groups].

At the initial talks in Vienna on Oct. 30, the U.S., Russia, Iran and more than a dozen other nations agreed to launch a new peace effort involving Syria's government and opposition groups.

But they carefully avoided the issue of when Assad might leave power, a dispute at the heart of the conflict, which has claimed more than 250,000 lives and generated more than 4 million refugees.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday that the key subject on the agenda of the weekend talks in Vienna would be the creation of a list of the opposition that could be part of political talks and a list of "terrorists."

Asked what role Assad should play, she said it was something for the Syrian people, not Russia, to decide.

Syrian opposition, rebel groups united against U.N. Syria 'working groups' plan

October 3, 2015

Reuters - A U.N. plan towards ending the civil war in Syria would not work in its current form, Syria's western-backed opposition and rebel groups said in a rare show of unity on Saturday, a day after the government said it was ready to take part in the initiative.
 
In July, U.N. special envoy to Syria Staffan De Mistura unveiled the idea of inviting warring parties to form four U.N.-led working groups on how to implement a roadmap to peace, since the groups were not ready to hold formal peace talks.

In a rare instance of the coalition's political and military components finding agreement, the statement was signed by the political offices of powerful Islamist factions such as Ahrar Al Sham and those backed by the United States, such as Division 101.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said on Friday that President Bashar al-Assad's government was ready to participate in de Mistura's initiative, although he said any outcome would be non-binding.

"We consider that the 'work groups' initiative in its current form and its unclear mechanisms provides the perfect environment to reproduce the regime," the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces said in a statement.

It said the plan ignored "the majority" of the relevant U.N. resolutions on Syria, including those on ridding the country of its chemical weapons and allowing unfettered humanitarian access.

The statement was issued after the coalition held meetings in Istanbul this week to discuss de Mistura's plans.

This week Moscow launched its first air strikes on Syria amid claims that rebel groups — backed by governments opposing Syria's President Bashar al-Assad — rather than Islamic State militants were being targeted.

A source involved in Syrian negotiations said the opposition groups [against the Assad regime] had condemned Moscow launching its first air strikes on Syria. An announcement that the groups would meet in mid-October was likely to be put off, the source said, on condition of anonymity.

The statement from the opposition groups reiterated that Assad and the "pillars of his regime" have no place in a future Syria or a transitional government.

De Mistura has said the working groups could be a step toward a "Syrian-owned framework document" that would provide for a transitional governing body, procedures for national dialogue, a constitution drafting process and transitional justice issues.

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