U.S. Agrees to Call Off Military Action Against Syria in a Deal with Russia to Remove Chemical Weapons; Obama Says He May Still Launch U.S. Strikes If Damascus Fails to Follow a Nine-month U.N. Disarmament Plan
September 15, 2013
Reuters - Syrian warplanes
and artillery bombarded rebel suburbs of the capital on Sunday after the
United States agreed to call off military action in a deal with Russia
to remove President Bashar al-Assad's chemical weapons.
President
Barack Obama said he may still launch U.S. strikes if Damascus fails to
follow a nine-month U.N. disarmament plan drawn up by Washington and
Assad's ally Moscow. But a reluctance among U.S. voters and Western
allies to engage in a new Middle East war, and Russian opposition, has
put any attacks on hold.
Syrian rebels, calling the international
focus on poison gas a sideshow, dismissed talk the arms pact might
herald peace talks and said Assad had stepped up an offensive with
ordinary weaponry now that the threat of U.S. air strikes had receded.
International responses to Saturday's accord were guarded. Western
governments, wary of Assad and familiar with the years frustrated U.N.
weapons inspectors spent in Saddam Hussein's Iraq, noted the huge
technical difficulties in destroying one of the world's biggest chemical
arsenals in the midst of civil war.
Assad's key sponsor Iran
hailed a U.S. retreat from "extremist behavior" and welcomed its
"rationality". Israel, worried that U.S. leniency toward Assad may
encourage Tehran to develop nuclear arms, said the deal would be judged
on results.
China, which like Russia opposes U.S. readiness to
use force in other sovereign states, was glad of the renewed role for
the United Nations Security Council, where Beijing too has a veto.
The Syrian government has formally told the United Nations it will
adhere to a treaty banning chemical weapons but made no comment in the
day since U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov patched over bitter differences between
Washington and Moscow to set a framework for the United Nations to
remove Assad's banned arsenal by mid-2014.
BOMBARDMENTS
Air strikes, shelling and infantry attacks on suburbs of Damascus
through Sunday morning offered evidence in support of opinions from both
Assad's Syrian opponents and supporters that he is again taking the
fight to rebels after a lull following the August 21 gas attack that
provoked the threat of U.S. action.
"It's a clever proposal from
Russia to prevent the attacks," one Assad supporter told Reuters from
the port of Tartous, site of a Russian naval base. "Russia will give us
new weapons that are better than chemical weapons," he added. "We are
strong enough to save our power and fight the terrorists."
An
opposition activist in Damascus echoed disappointment among rebel
leaders:
"Helping Syrians would mean stopping the bloodshed," he said.
Poison gas is estimated to have killed only hundreds of the more than
100,000 dead in a war that has also forced a third of the population to
flee their homes since 2011.
The deal, suggested by Russian
President Vladimir Putin, resolved a dilemma for Obama, who found
Congress unwilling to back the military response he prepared following
the release of sarin gas in rebel suburbs of Damascus.
Obama blames
Assad for some 1,400 dead civilians; Assad and Putin accuse the rebels.
Russia says it is not specifically supporting Assad - though it has
provided much of his weaponry in the past. Its concern, it says, is to
prevent Assad's Western and Arab enemies from imposing their will on
Syria. And Moscow, like Assad, highlights the role of al Qaeda-linked
Islamists among the rebel forces.
Their presence, and divisions
among Assad's opponents in a war that has inflamed sectarian passions
across the region,
have tempered Western support for the rebels. Al
Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri urged followers not to work with other
Syrian rebels.
The opposition Syrian National Coalition elected a
moderate Islamist on Saturday as prime minister of an exile government -
a move some members said was opposed by Western powers who want to see
an international peace conference bring the warring sides together to
produce a compromise transitional administration.
Previous attempts to revive peace efforts begun last year at Geneva have foundered on the bitter hostilities among Syrians.
SCHEDULE
Assad has just a week to begin complying with the U.S.-Russian deal by
handing over a full account of his chemical arsenal. He must allow
U.N.-backed inspectors from the Hague-based Organisation for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)
to complete their initial on-site
checks by November.
Under the Geneva pact, the United States and
Russia will back a U.N. enforcement mechanism. But its terms are not
yet set.
Russia is unlikely to support the military option that Obama
said he was still ready to use:
"If diplomacy fails, the United States
remains prepared to act," he said on Saturday.
The Pentagon said its forces were still poised to strike.
Assad told Russian state television last week that his cooperation was
dependent on an end to such threats and U.S. support for rebel fighters.
It seems likely that Moscow can prevail on him to comply, at least
initially, with a deal in which Putin has invested no little personal
prestige.
While Lavrov stressed in Geneva that the pact did not
include any automatic use of force in the event of Syria's failure to
comply,
Western leaders said only the credible prospect of being bombed
had persuaded Assad to agree to give up weaponry which he had long
denied ever having, let along using.
"It would have been
impossible to obtain if there hadn't been a stick," French Foreign
Minister Laurent Fabius said in Beijing. Paris had offered Obama
military support against Assad.
Fabius cautioned: "This agreement
is not the be all and end all. We're very cautious about it. There is
all the rest that has to be solved and there must be a political
solution."
Where such a political solution may come from is unclear.
Kerry and Lavrov plan to meet the U.N. envoy on Syria at the end of the
month to review progress toward peace talks. Lavrov spoke of an
international peace conference as early as October.
ASSAD "REWARDED"
Fighting on the ground in a country divided between rebel and
government forces shows little sign of slowing its descent into
atrocity, with 1,000 people dying in any typical week.
Analyst
Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center wrote in the Atlantic magazine:
"If anything, Assad finds himself in a stronger position. Now, he can
get away with nearly anything - as long as he sticks to using good old
conventional weapons.
"Assad is effectively being rewarded for
the use of chemical weapons," Hamid added. "He has managed to remove the
threat of U.S. military action while giving very little up in return."
There was heavy fighting overnight in Jobar, a rebel-held area just
east of downtown Damascus, opposition activists from the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights said on Sunday.
Residents counted three air
strikes on neighboring Barzeh and there were clashes in other parts of
the metropolis, too.
In the government-held centre, however, schools reopened on Sunday
after the summer break and traffic was heavy -
further signs the
authorities see the U.S. threat has passed for now.
Lavrov and
Kerry, whose personal rapport played a part in breaking some of the Cold
War-era ice that has chilled relations between the world's two biggest
military powers, both welcomed their agreement as a victory for
diplomacy.
But Kerry warned it would not be easy:
"The
implementation of this framework, which will require the vigilance and
the investment of the international community, and full accountability
of the Assad regime, presents a hard road ahead."
Having taken
the surprise decision two weeks ago to seek congressional approval for,
Obama faced a dilemma when lawmakers bridled - citing doubts about the
rebel cause and wariness of new entanglements after wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
Those who back intervention blasted the deal with Moscow.
Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, Republican opponents of the
Democrat Obama said it would give Assad months to "delay and deceive". They added in a statement:
"It requires a wilful suspension of
disbelief to see this agreement as anything other than the start of a
diplomatic blind alley, and the Obama administration is being led into
it by Bashar Assad and Vladimir Putin."
SANCTIONS
The
agreement states that a U.N. Security Council resolution should allow
for regular assessments of Syria's behavior and "in the event of
non-compliance ... the UN Security Council should impose measures under
Chapter VII of the UN Charter".
Chapter VII can include force but
can be limited to other kinds of sanction. Lavrov said:
"There is
nothing said about the use of force and not about any automatic
sanctions."
Senior Kerry aides involved in the talks said that
the United States and Russia agreed that Syria has 1,000 tonnes of
chemical agents, including nerve gas sarin and mustard gas - one of the
world's largest stockpiles of such material.
But the officials said there was no agreement on how many sites must be inspected. Washington thinks it is at least 45.
One U.S. official called the task "daunting to say the least". Another noted there were "targets ... not a deadline".
The weapons are likely to be removed through a combination of
destroying them in Syria and shipping some for destruction elsewhere,
U.S. officials said. Russia is one possible site for destruction, but no
final decisions have been made.
The OPCW's experts have never moved weapons across borders before, because of the risk and have never worked in a war zone.