Will Israel Strike Iran and Ignite a Third World War?

Defying U.S., China and Iran Near Trade and Military Partnership

The investment and security pact would vastly extend China’s influence in the Middle East, throwing Iran an economic lifeline and creating new flash points with the United States.

By Farnaz Fassihi and Steven Lee Myers, The New York Times

Published July 11, 2020, Updated November 30, 2020

Iran and China have quietly drafted a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors, undercutting the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military ambitions.

The partnership, detailed in an 18-page proposed agreement obtained by The New York Times, would vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. 

In exchange, China would receive a regular — and, according to an Iranian official and an oil trader, heavily discounted — supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.

The document also describes deepening military cooperation, potentially giving China a foothold in a region that has been a strategic preoccupation of the United States for decades. It calls for joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development and intelligence sharing — all to fight “the lopsided battle with terrorism, drug and human trafficking and cross-border crimes.”

The partnership — first proposed by China’s leader, Xi Jinping, during a visit to Iran in 2016 — was approved by President Hassan Rouhani’s cabinet in June, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said last week.

Iranian officials have publicly stated that there is a pending agreement with China, and one Iranian official, as well as several people who have discussed it with the Iranian government, confirmed that it is the document obtained by The Times, which is labeled “final version” and dated June 2020.

It has not yet been submitted to Iran’s Parliament for approval or made public, stoking suspicions in Iran about how much the government is preparing to give away to China.

In Beijing, officials have not disclosed the terms of the agreement, and it is not clear whether Mr. Xi’s government has signed off or, if it has, when it might announce it.

If put into effect as detailed, the partnership would create new and potentially dangerous flash points in the deteriorating relationship between China and the United States.

It represents a major blow to the Trump administration’s aggressive policy toward Iran since abandoning the nuclear deal reached in 2015 by President Barack Obama and the leaders of six other nations after two years of grueling negotiations.

Renewed American sanctions, including the threat to cut off access to the international banking system for any company that does business in Iran, have succeeded in suffocating the Iranian economy by scaring away badly needed foreign trade and investment.

But Tehran’s desperation has pushed it into the arms of China, which has the technology and appetite for oil that Iran needs. Iran has been one of the world’s largest oil producers, but its exports, Tehran’s largest source of revenue, have plunged since the Trump administration began imposing sanctions in 2018; China gets about 75 percent of its oil from abroad and is the world’s largest importer, at more than 10 million barrels a day last year.

At a time when the United States is reeling from recession and the coronavirus, and increasingly isolated internationally, Beijing senses American weakness. The draft agreement with Iran shows that unlike most countries, China feels it is in a position to defy the United States, powerful enough to withstand American penalties, as it has in the trade war waged by President Trump.

“Two ancient Asian cultures, two partners in the sectors of trade, economy, politics, culture and security with a similar outlook and many mutual bilateral and multilateral interests will consider one another strategic partners,” the document says in its opening sentence.

The Chinese investments in Iran, which two people who have been briefed on the deal said would total $400 billion over 25 years, could spur still more punitive actions against Chinese companies, which have already been targeted by the administration in recent months.

“The United States will continue to impose costs on Chinese companies that aid Iran, the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism,” a State Department spokeswoman wrote in response to questions about the draft agreement.

“By allowing or encouraging Chinese companies to conduct sanctionable activities with the Iranian regime, the Chinese government is undermining its own stated goal of promoting stability and peace.”

The expansion of military assistance, training and intelligence-sharing will also be viewed with alarm in Washington. American warships already tangle regularly with Iranian forces in the crowded waters of the Persian Gulf and challenge China’s internationally disputed claim to much of the South China Sea, and the Pentagon’s national security strategy has declared China an adversary.

When reports of a long-term investment agreement with Iran surfaced last September, China’s foreign ministry dismissed the question out of hand. Asked about it again last week, a spokesman, Zhao Lijian, left open the possibility that a deal was in the works.

“China and Iran enjoy traditional friendship, and the two sides have been in communication on the development of bilateral relations,” he said. “We stand ready to work with Iran to steadily advance practical cooperation.”

The projects — nearly 100 are cited in the draft agreement — are very much in keeping with Mr. Xi’s ambitions to extend its economic and strategic influence across Eurasia through the “Belt and Road Initiative,” a vast aid and investment program.

The projects, including airports, high-speed railways and subways, would touch the lives of millions of Iranians. China would develop free-trade zones in Maku, in northwestern Iran; in Abadan, where the Shatt al-Arab river flows into the Persian Gulf, and on the gulf island Qeshm.

The agreement also includes proposals for China to build the infrastructure for a 5G telecommunications network, to offer the new Chinese Global Positioning System, Beidou, and to help Iranian authorities assert greater control over what circulates in cyberspace, presumably as China’s Great Firewall does.

The American campaign against a major Chinese telecommunications company, Huawei, includes a criminal case against its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, for seeking to disguise investments in Iran in order to evade American sanctions. The Trump administration has barred Huawei from involvement in 5G development in the United States, and has tried, without great success, to persuade other countries to do the same.

Moving ahead with a broad investment program in Iran appears to signal Beijing’s growing impatience with the Trump administration after its abandonment of the nuclear agreement. China has repeatedly called on the administration to preserve the deal, which it was a party to, and has sharply denounced the American use of unilateral sanctions.

Iran has traditionally looked west toward Europe for trade and investment partners. Increasingly though, it has grown frustrated with European countries that have opposed Mr. Trump’s policy but quietly withdrawn from the kinds of deals that the nuclear agreement once promised.

“Iran and China both view this deal as a strategic partnership in not just expanding their own interests but confronting the U.S.,” said Ali Gholizadeh, an Iranian energy researcher at the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei. “It is the first of its kind for Iran keen on having a world power as an ally.”

The proposed partnership has nonetheless stoked a fierce debate within Iran. Mr. Zarif, the foreign minister, who traveled to Beijing last October to negotiate the agreement, faced hostile questioning about it in Parliament last week.

The document was provided to The Times by someone familiar with its drafting with the intention of showing the scope of the projects now under consideration.

Mr. Zarif said the agreement would be submitted to Parliament for final approval. It has the support of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, two Iranian officials said.

Ayatollah Khamenei’s top economic adviser, Ali Agha Mohammadi, appeared on state television recently to discuss the need for an economic lifeline. He said Iran needs to increase its oil production to at least 8.5 million barrels a day in order to remain a player in the energy market, and for that, it needs China.

Iranian supporters of the strategic partnership say that given the country’s limited economic options, the free-falling currency and the dim prospect of U.S. sanctions being lifted, the deal with China could provide a lifeline.

“Every road is closed to Iran,” said Fereydoun Majlesi, a former diplomat and a columnist for several Iranian newspapers on diplomacy. “The only path open is China. Whatever it is, until sanctions are lifted, this deal is the best option.”

But critics across the political spectrum in Iran have raised concerns that the government is secretly “selling off” the country to China in a moment of economic weakness and international isolation. In a speech in late June, a former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, called it a suspicious secret deal that the people of Iran would never approve.

The critics have cited previous Chinese investment projects that have left countries in Africa and Asia indebted and ultimately beholden to the authorities in Beijing. A particular concern has been the proposed port facilities in Iran, including two along the coast of the Sea of Oman.

One at Jask, just outside of the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf, would give the Chinese a strategic vantage point on the waters through which much of the world’s oil transits. The passage is of critical strategic importance to the United States, whose Navy’s Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain, in the gulf.

China has already constructed a series of ports along the Indian Ocean, creating a necklace of refueling and resupply stations from the South China Sea to the Suez Canal. Ostensibly commercial in nature, the ports potentially have military value, too, allowing China’s rapidly growing navy to expand its reach.

Those include ports at Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan, which are widely criticized as footholds for a potential military presence, though no Chinese forces have officially been deployed at them.

China opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2015, ostensibly to support its forces participating in international antipiracy operations off the coast of Somalia. The outpost, which began as a logistics base but is now more heavily fortified, is within miles of the American base in that country.

China has also stepped up military cooperation with Iran. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has visited and participated in military exercises at least three times, beginning in 2014. The most recent was last December, when a Chinese missile destroyer, the Xining, joined a naval exercise with the Russian and Iranian navies in the Gulf of Oman.

China’s state-owned Xinhua news agency quoted the commander of Iran’s Navy, Rear Adm. Hossein Khanzadi, saying that the exercise showed “the era of American invasions in the region is over.”

David E. Sanger contributed reporting. Claire Fu in Beijing contributed research.

Proposed China-Iran deal is bad news for Israel

The American “maximum pressure” campaign has clearly had a major impact on Iran, but a massive influx of Chinese investments will go a long way towards undoing it.

By LAHAV HARKOV, Jerusalem Post

July 14, 2020   

With Iran and China working on a multibillion-dollar 25-year economic and security deal, Israel has many reasons to be concerned and even alarmed.

The proposed agreement, leaked to The New York Times, which reported on it on Saturday, would lead to a closer military relationship between Tehran and Beijing, including joint military exercises, research and weapons development and intelligence sharing. 

It would also increase Chinese investments in Iranian banking, telecommunications and transportation, such as airports and railways. China would reportedly get a discounted supply of Iranian oil in return.

The document describes the countries as “two ancient Asian countries... with a similar outlook” that “will consider one another strategic partners.”

Neither side has publicly confirmed that the document is genuine, that they have signed it or that there is any such agreement. When asked about a deal with Iran last week, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said: 

“China and Iran enjoy traditional friendship, and the two sides have been in communication on the development of bilateral relations. We stand ready to work with Iran to steadily advance practical cooperation.”

Meanwhile, there is public debate in Iran about whether the agreement could be a debt trap, with former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking out against it. The agreement has been in the works for a long time – Chinese leader Xi Jinping first proposed it on a visit to Tehran in 2016 – and the timing for the recent progress likely has to do with Iran being especially economically weak these days.

According to Carice Witte, executive director of SIGNAL, a think tank focused on China-Israel relations: “This is indicative of the Chinese approach, [to] identify where there is a vulnerability and then patiently look for ways to capitalize on it.”

China has much to gain from the deal besides a discount on gas when energy prices are plummeting anyway. The agreement fits into China’s Belt and Road Initiative to build infrastructure across the world, while bringing Iran into its orbit of influence. It also would bolster China’s new digital currency e-RMB as a way to bypass American systems and reduce the power of the dollar – another way in which the deal could hurt Israel if it comes to fruition.

Plus, China would gain power and influence in Iran, a diplomatic card it can play with respect to the US and garner greater leverage in the Gulf.

For Israel, the potential for damage from such an agreement is clear.

AS WITTE said, “Any dollar going into the Iranian system is one that can likely be spent against Israel.”

This is especially clear when it comes to the bolstering of Iran’s military through cooperation with China. Any of the new resources directed to the Islamic Republic’s army can potentially – and likely will – be turned on Israel.

Another part of the deal may be a massive sale of weapons to Iran. A recent Pentagon report said China seeks to sell Iran attack helicopters, fighter jets, tanks and more once the UN arms embargo expires in October.

While Israelis and Israel supporters may find it hard to believe, the Chinese government truly does not think Iran is a danger to Israel, Witte said.

“China’s perception is that Iran doesn’t mean what it says about destroying Israel,” she said. “China does not see Iran as an existential threat to Israel and that Iran is only saying [it wants to destroy Israel] to be taken seriously by the world’s power centers.”

Israel and the US have been pushing UN Security Council members to extend the arms embargo on Iran that began under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. Israel and the US have cited Tehran’s violations of that deal and continued attempts to build up its nuclear program, for which the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly rapped Iran in recent weeks, as well as its sponsorship of terrorism and warfare through proxies around the Middle East.

But Chinese Ambassador to the UN Zhang Jun last week said his country opposes US attempts to activate the JCPOA’s “snapback sanctions” mechanism.

The return of US sanctions in 2018 has led to a major economic crisis in Iran and subsequent political instability. This empowered hard-liners to say Iran never should have made a deal involving the US in the first place. They won a decisive majority of Iran’s parliament in an election this year.

But it also has led to protesters taking to the streets this year, protesting a government that uses its money to pay for wars in other countries instead of helping its own people. Experts say the regime is as unpopular as it has ever been since the Islamic Revolution.

The US “maximum pressure” campaign has clearly had a major impact on Iran, but a massive influx of Chinese investments will go a long way toward undoing it, effectively relieving the pressure.

Another concern is regarding Chinese companies’ involvement in infrastructure projects in Israel and Iran. This is already taking place, but the 25-year agreement would deepen those ties.

A Jerusalem Post investigation last month found that three of the six international groups bidding on the tender to build two lines of the Tel Aviv light rail include Chinese-owned companies that also worked on railway projects in Iran. These state-owned companies include China Railway Engineering Corporation, China Harbour Engineering Company, China Communications Construction Company and its China Railway Construction Corporation.

A report by the RAND research institute this year warned that due to China’s close ties with Iran, the Chinese government could have companies share insights on Israel with Tehran to gain favor and influence. In addition, China could use the companies operating in Israel and Iran for political leverage on Israel, such as in 2013, when it conditioned a Beijing visit by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on his stopping defense officials from testifying in a New York federal lawsuit against the Bank of China for laundering Iranian money for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

The US is waiting to see what actual agreement emerges, and it will continue to take action against any Chinese company breaking sanctions, a State Department source said. For example, the US is pursuing criminal charges against Chinese telecom company Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou for attempting to avoid US sanctions by hiding investments in Iran.

The Prime Minister’s Office declined to comment on this matter, but it is likely eyeing the China-Iran agreement with concern.

Iran slips record volume of oil into China, reaches out to Asian clients for trade resumption

By Reuters

March 8, 2021

Iran has quietly moved record amounts of crude oil to top client China in recent months, while India’s state refiners have added Iranian oil to their annual import plans on the assumption that U.S. sanctions on the OPEC supplier will soon ease, according to six industry sources and Refinitiv data.

U.S. President Joe Biden has sought to revive talks with Iran on a nuclear deal abandoned by former President Donald Trump in 2018, although harsh economic measures remain in place that Tehran insists be lifted before negotiations resume.

The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has started reaching out to customers across Asia since Biden took office to assess potential demand for its crude, said the sources, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

The sanctions caused a precipitous drop in Iranian exports to China, India, Japan and South Korea since late 2018. Those measures, and output cuts by fellow OPEC+ producers, have led to tight supplies of Middle East sour crude in Asia, the top global oil market. Asia imports more than half of its crude from the Middle East.

“They talked to us. They said: ‘very soon they hope to resume oil supplies.’ We said: ‘Inshallah’,” said one source at an Indian refiner. “Inshallah” is an Arabic term that means “God willing,” used to express that the speaker hopes something will happen.

GRAPHIC: China's Iranian oil purchases hit record in early 2021 -

Restored Iranian supplies to India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, could reduce demand for spot cargoes, which has climbed recently after Iraq cut supplies and Kuwait reduced the duration of some contracts.

India, which is hurting from the recent sustained recovery in global crude prices, expects Iranian supplies to return to the market in 3 to 4 months, a government official said.

Another Indian refiner said they had been told by NIOC officials that a formal agreement on crude supply would be signed after Iran’s elections in June. NIOC has also reached out to other Asian customers.

“Recently NIOC called us, asking about demand,” said a trader at an east Asian refiner. “It looks like Iran is getting ready to return to the market.”

Another refining source said the talks were “very initial” and that NIOC wanted to know whether the company would resume Iranian oil purchases. The sources declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

CHINA

Unlike India, China never completely halted Iranian oil imports.

Iran moved about 17.8 million tonnes (306,000 barrels per day) of crude into China during the past 14 months, with volumes reaching record levels in January and February, according to Refinitiv Oil Research.

Of these, about 75% were “indirect” imports identified as oil from Oman, the United Arab Emirates or Malaysia, which entered China mainly via ports in eastern Shandong province, home to most of China’s independent refiners, or Yingkou port in northeastern Liaoning province.

GRAPHIC: China's indirect Iranian oil imports by ports -

The remaining 25% of imports were marked as official purchases for China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves, Refinitiv said, as Beijing maintains a small purchase volume despite U.S. sanctions.

GRAPHIC: Oman, Malaysia UAE crude flows to China -

“Volumes started to surge from the last quarter of 2020, with Shandong province as the top receiving region which indicates independent plants are the main consumers,” said Emma Li, a Refinitiv crude flows analyst.

Tankers carrying Iranian oil typically switch off their transponders when loading to avoid detection, but then become traceable via satellites near ports in Oman, the UAE and Iraq. Some transfer part of their cargoes to other ships near Singapore or Malaysia before sailing to China, Li said.

Reuters is unable to identify the end buyers for these cargoes.

Without commenting directly on the oil transactions, the Spokesman’s Office of China’s Foreign Ministry said: “Iran is a friendly nation to China and the two nations have maintained normal exchanges and cooperation. The cooperation between China and Iran under the framework of international laws is both reasonable and legitimate, and deserves respect and protection.”

NIOC declined to comment. An official at the country’s Oil Ministry said, “When the unjust U.S. sanctions are lifted, Iran will be able to sell its oil to any country, and I can assure you that many contracts will be signed.”

Geneva-based tanker tracker Petro-Logistics said Iranian oil loadings in January exceeded 600,000 bpd for the first time since May 2019, a sign that the end of Donald Trump’s term may be changing buyer behavior.

Indirect shipment arrivals in February, including those waiting to discharge off Chinese ports, reached nearly 850,000 bpd, beating the daily record of 790,000 bpd set in April 2019, according to Refinitiv and Chinese customs data.

Chinese customs data showed on Sunday that crude imports rose 4% annually in the first two months of this year. It will release details for the breakdown by country of origin this month.

“Iranian stuff started to slip into Shandong from late 2019... started with some cash-stripped refiners which processed oil first before paying for the cargo,” said an independent Chinese trader familiar with some of the transactions.

Most of these transactions were settled in Chinese currency or euros to circumvent U.S. scrutiny, the trader said.

The record imports have weighed on prices for competing medium and heavy grades from other Middle East producers, traders said.

“While it does not seem that the sanction will be lifted anytime soon, Iran has resurfaced,” another trade source said.

Newly revealed attempt to hit Iranian oil trade to Syria provides a belated glimpse into the economic war between Israel and Iran

By Amos Harel, Haaretz

March 13, 2021

The report published by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday about Israel's operations targeting Iranian ships explains many of the developments that have taken place in the Middle East over the last two years. It also provides, belatedly, a glimpse of the ...

Russia Setting Up Direct Shipping Line to Syria 

October 10, 2017

(Reuters) - Russia is setting up a direct shipping line to Syria and wants its companies to help build an economic recovery in the war-torn Middle Eastern country, the TASS news agency quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin as saying on Tuesday. 

The report did not specify what a direct shipping line would entail, but any increase in agricultural and other supplies from Russia or help in reviving exports would be a boost for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Russia, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, supports Assad in the long-running civil war in Syria and has previously helped his government with wheat aid.

“A direct shipping line between Russian and Syrian ports is being established,” Rogozin, in charge of the military industrial complex, told a meeting of a Russian-Syrian commission on trade cooperation, according to the agency.

Agricultural goods are currently transported by a company called Oboronlogistika, which is “interested in expanding its services,” he said.

Oboronlogistika says on its website it acts under the jurisdiction of Russia’s defence ministry, organising cargo transportation, customs clearance and warehouse services.

Its fleet includes three ships with loading function for transportation of cargo in trailers and containers.

Syria was once self-sufficient in wheat but continued fighting in the main grain-producing areas in its northeastern regions has reduced its crops in recent years.

Trade between Russia and Syria rose by 42 percent year-on-year to $193 million in the first seven months of 2017, according to Rogozin. However, Syria’s exports to Russia only amounted to $2 million in the period.

“This is mainly related to a lack of necessary infrastructure for exports and commissioning of local agricultural produce, which makes it economically unviable to supply Syrian vegetables and fruits,” he said.

The plan is to create a closed loop to grow, pack, store and export Syrian vegetables and fruit to Russia in the near future, he said.

“We now state that it’s time for economic restoration and expect that Russia’s businesses will play the most active role in this process,” Rogozin added.

This Is Not WW3: Allies Russia and China Will Not Rush to Defend Syria

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin regarded the strike "as aggression against a sovereign nation" that was carried out "in violation of international law, and also under an invented pretext. “Russia would allow a one-time event to slide,” Pavel Felgenhauer, a veteran military policy specialist in Moscow, told ABC News. “There’s going to be fireworks of condemnation coming from Moscow. But Russia still wants to find an understanding with Trump.” There were indications that Russia did hope to continue a dialogue with the United States despite the hot words. There was, for instance, no suggestion Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, who is due to visit Moscow next week on his first trip there, would be uninvited now. The head of Russia’s parliamentary committee on international affairs, Leonid Slutsky, told the Russian state television network, Rossiya 24, that Russia would not “close itself behind walls” with the United States. The Russian leaders' condemnation stood out on the global stage, where most leaders, especially U.S. allies, appeared to support Trump's decision to strike the air base linked with the deadly and illegal chemical weapons attack. Syria and Russia have denied that the government was responsible." [Source]

"Russia is not going there to conduct armed activity with the US; our task there is to support the Syrian armed forces in the fight against terrorism," Ozerov told the Russian news agency, adding, "We have a mandate to fulfill this very task." [Source]

April 7, 2017

(andywarhaul at subreddit conspiracy) - This may be a shock but China, Russia and the US couldn't give a damn about Assad, the people of Syria, and whether or not they were gassed by Assad. Forget if the attack is a false flag or not because it doesn't effect the point, and the point is, they all only give a shit about gas and oil.

Let's lay it out to highlight why toppling Assad is important to Israel, USA, and Saudi Arabia. And why keeping Assad standing is important to Russia and Turkey. It will also highlight why China and Iran don't give a hoot about what happens either way.

Scene is the Middle East

The big players are Iran, Syria, Turkey, Russia, Israel, USA, Saudi Arabia and China.

The prize is the South Pars gas/oil field.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pars_/_North_Dome_Gas-Condensate_field

The Iranians have an insane amount of untapped gas and oil. A combination of sanctions by the US, the inaccessibility of the reserves, and scores of other more easily accessed reserves have delayed Iran developing on it. They have just started producing in the last week or so.

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Irans-South-Pars-Oil-Field-To-Produce-By-End-Of-March.html

The closest market for all that oil is Europe but you need a pipeline to get it there. There are a few options of where it could go through.

Iran doesn't give a hoot about where the gas and oil goes at all because, no matter what, they are getting paid.

China also doesn't give a hoot because they, along with a French company, have a 50% stake in the deal with Iran to develop the field. On top of that, they are reported to be involved in investing over 42 billion dollars in developing the portion of the pipeline in Iran.

Let's look at the possible routes for that pipeline once it leaves Iran.

We'll call this one the American Express:

http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/335809bc5a4500918ff797c8a540c039

And this one the Russian Run:

https://m.imgur.com/a/nECpe

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Pipeline

So starting with the American Express, we've established that between Iran and China the development and pipeline infrastructure inside Iran is covered. Both Iran and China will make money no matter what.

With the American Express the next stage would be building a pipeline through Iraq.

Getting into the finer mechanics, the US, the Saudis, and the Israelis all lack control over Iran and Turkey; in other words, they wouldn't be getting a cut of the profits if it goes through Turkey. Plus they have their own natural gas and oil asserts that would see a decrease in value when the South Pars starts producing full blast. So they want to make sure they are getting a cut.

Next they are going to want to make a route over which they have total control. The shortest route between Iran and the Mediterranean is through Iraq and Syria. So ideally you would want to take control of both of those countries to build your pipeline.



Iraq ✅ - the US took care of that some time ago.

Syria ❌

Russia Ups Ante by Freezing Communications with US in Syria

April 7, 2017

(AP) — Russia reacted to U.S. military strikes on its ally Syria Friday by cutting a hotline intended to prevent midair incidents, a response that demonstrates Moscow's readiness to defy Washington and could even put the two nuclear superpowers on a course toward military confrontation.

President Vladimir Putin signaled he was ready to risk a clash with the U.S. and abandon hopes for mending ties with the U.S. under President Donald Trump, rather than accept the humiliation of standing by while his ally is bombed.

Russia's decision to suspend the hotline established after the launch of the Russian air campaign in Syria in September 2015 effectively means that Russian and U.S. planes could fly dangerously close to each other during combat missions, raising the risk of inadvertent or deliberate clashes in the crowded skies over Syria.

By freezing the information channel between the two potent militaries, Russia is signaling to Washington that it will tolerate no further strikes on Syrian government facilities.

Syria has aging Soviet-built aircraft and air defense missile systems, while Russia has deployed dozens of its cutting edge warplanes and air defense batteries at its base in Syria's coastal province of Latakia. It also has a strategically important naval outpost in the Syrian port of Tartus, which is protected by air defense assets.

Further upping the ante, the Russian Defense Ministry said it will now help strengthen Syrian air defenses.

U.S. officials accused Russia of failing to ensure Syrian President Bashar Assad's commitment to a 2013 deal for the destruction of Assad's chemical weapons arsenal. The U.S. says that arsenal was tapped for a chemical attack that killed dozens of civilians in the Syrian town of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province.

Trump cited the chemical attack as justification for the missile strike on a Syrian air base. But the Kremlin insists Assad's government wasn't responsible for the attack, saying civilians in Khan Sheikhoun were exposed to toxic agents from a rebel arsenal that was hit by Syrian warplanes.

"President Putin believes that the U.S. strikes on Syria represent an aggression against a sovereign state in violation of international law under a far-fetched pretext," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement. "Washington's move deals a significant blow to Russia-U.S. relations, which are already in deplorable shape."

Until the attack on the Syrian air base, the U.S. had avoided striking Assad's forces for fear of provoking a clash with the Russian military.

U.S. Fires Missiles at Assad Airbase; Russia Denounces 'Aggression'

April 7, 2017

(Reuters) - The United States fired cruise missiles on Friday at a Syrian airbase from which President Donald Trump said a deadly chemical weapons attack had been launched, the first direct U.S. assault on the government of Bashar al-Assad in six years of civil war.

In the biggest foreign policy decision of his presidency so far, Trump ordered the step his predecessor Barack Obama never took: directly targeting the Syrian military for its suspected role in a poison gas attack that killed at least 70 people

That catapulted Washington into confrontation with Russia, which has military advisers on the ground aiding its ally, President Assad. The Kremlin denounced the strikes as illegal.

"Years of previous attempts at changing Assad’s behavior have all failed and failed very dramatically," Trump said as he announced the attack from his Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago, where he was meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"Even beautiful babies were cruelly murdered in this very barbaric attack," he said of Tuesday's chemical weapons strike, which Western countries blame on Assad's forces. "No child of God should ever suffer such horror."

Assad's office said Damascus would respond by striking its enemies harder: "This aggression has increased Syria's resolve to hit those terrorist agents, to continue to crush them, and to raise the pace of action to that end wherever they are."

U.S. officials said that the strike was a "one-off" intended to deter future chemical weapons attacks, and not an expansion of the U.S. role in the Syria war.

The swift action is likely to be interpreted as a signal to Russia, as well as to countries such as North Korea, China and Iran where Trump has faced foreign policy tests early in his presidency, that he is willing to use force.

US Fires Missiles at Syrian Military Base Near Homs in Response to ’Assad’s Chemical Attack’ (Syria Gas Attack: Assad's Doing...Or False Flag?)

Just days after the US Administration changed course on Syrian President Assad, saying he could stay, an alleged chemical weapon attack that killed dozens of civilians has been blamed on the Syrian government. Did Assad sign his own death warrant with such an attack...or does some other entity benefit?

Ron Paul: Chemical Attack in Syria May Have Been False Flag by Deep State to Undermine Peace

April 5, 2017

(We Are Change) - During Wednesday’s Liberty Report, Ron Paul asserted that he believes there is “zero chance” that the chemical attack in Syria was conducted by Bashar al-Assad.

“Just days after the US Administration changed course on Syrian President Assad, saying he could stay, an alleged chemical weapon attack that killed dozens of civilians has been blamed on the Syrian government,” the description for the stream read. “Did Assad sign his own death warrant with such an attack…or does some other entity benefit?”

The former Texas congressman explained that the timing of the incident was strange, as things were going reasonably well in Syria given the conditions. He noted that Trump had allowed the Syrians to decide who should be running their country, and that peace talks were in the works and terror groups were “on the run.”

“It looks like, maybe, somebody didn’t like that so there had to be an episode, and the blame now is we can’t let that happen because it looks like it might benefit Assad,” Paul asserted.

Paul then referenced the 2013 incident, and the “red line.” He noted that neoconservatives have been “yelling and screaming,” including a portion of the administration, that Assad used poison gas on the Syrian people.

Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity executive director Daniel McAdams chimed in at this point, stating that it was never proven that the attack was conducted by Assad, and that the UN’s Carla Del Ponte had stated the vicious assault was likely conducted by the rebels.

“It makes no sense, even if you were totally separate from this and take no sides of this and you were just an analyst, it doesn’t make sense for Assad under these conditions to all of the sudden use poison gasses. I think it’s zero chance that he would have done this deliberately,” Paul added.

Paul asserted that his viewers need to decide what they stand for, urging them to consider the benefits of negotiation and diplomacy.

“If we give up on that, then we’re going to have the neoconservatives — epitomized by Bill Kristol, Cheney, McCain, and Lindsey Graham — they’re the ones who will be running it. I mean, in many ways they have a lot of influence, they’re closer to the insiders, they’re closer to the deep state,” Paul warned. “This may well be an example of what they can do to reverse any attempt to come up with a peaceful solution.”

Paul stated that is why the message of non interventionism, minding our own business, and having a strong national defense to protect liberty at home is so important.
“That is the policy that must be used if we are determined to promote the cause of peace and prosperity,” Paul concluded.

The Strategy for Taking the Middle East (Excerpt)

March 2003

(Stewart Best) - The strategy for the Iraq war is now making itself known. By using 9/11 as a pretext to invade Afghanistan, Iran is flanked on the east side. By using the Desert Storm protocols and UN Resolution 1441, among others, the excuse to invade and occupy Iraq is brought forward because Saddam is not disarming, we are told.

By taking Iraq, the U.S. forces then flank Iran to the West. Having troops stationed in Turkey is a key part of this plan, for then Iran is flanked to the North, which is why so much pressure is being applied to Turkey to allow our troops there.

Although we cannot be sure which incidents will be used to bring war with Iran, we can be sure something will transpire to make is necessary to invade Iran, and most likely Syria would be next. Syria is also isolated in all directions.  

With Israel the main benefactor in the Middle East, this strategy will totally rearrange the Middle Eastern landscape and set the stage for the appointment of the 10 puppet kings of Revelation chapter 17, which have no 'kingdom yet' but will with the beast for 42 months.

Russia Says It Now Recognizes Jerusalem as Israel's Capital

April 7, 2017

(Business Insider) - Russia recognizes west Jerusalem as Israel's capital, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated in a surprise announcement on Thursday, obtained exclusively by The Jerusalem Post.

The announcement comes as US President Donald Trump's administration is agonizing over whether to move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a move that would constitute recognizing west Jerusalem as the country's capital. No other country in the world recognizes any part of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

The statement issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry reads, "We reaffirm our commitment to the UN-approved principles for a Palestinian-Israeli settlement, which include the status of East Jerusalem as the capital of the future Palestinian state. At the same time, we must state that in this context we view West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel."

This is a sharp shift in Russian policy, which until now has formally held that Jerusalem should eventually be under a permanent international regime. The statement appears in English on the Russian Foreign Ministry's Russian web site.

While officials in Jerusalem interpreted this to mean that recognition of west Jerusalem as Israel’s capital will only come once east Jerusalem becomes the capital of a Palestinian state, The Jerusalem Post has learned that Moscow intends this recognition to go into effect immediately.

Russia's ambassador to Israel will meet with Foreign Ministry officials in the coming days to discuss Moscow's decision and its ramifications. There is currently no intention, however, of moving Russia's embassy to Jerusalem.

Headlined "Foreign Ministry statement regarding Palestinian-Israeli settlement," the statement reads that Moscow "is deeply concerned about the situation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Palestine and Israel have not held political negotiations for nearly three years, and the situation on the ground has been deteriorating."

According to the statement, "The stalling of the Middle East peace process has created conditions for unilateral moves that undermine the potential for an internationally accepted solution to the Palestinian problem, under which two states – Israel and Palestine – could live in peace and security with each other and with their neighbors."

Moscow reaffirmed its "support for the two-state solution as an optimal option that meets the national interests of the Palestinian and Israeli people, both of whom have friendly relations with Russia, and the interests of all other countries in the region and the international community as a whole."

The statement continued that "The concrete parameters of a solution for the entire range of issues regarding the status of Palestinian territories, including Jerusalem, should be coordinated at the direct talks between the parties involved. Using its opportunities as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a co-sponsor of the peace process and an active member of the Middle East Quartet of international intermediaries, Russia will continue to provide assistance to the achievement of Israeli-Palestinian agreements."

The statement also said that Moscow will "focus on ensuring free access to Jerusalem's holy places for all believers."

Israel's Foreign Ministry had no immediate reaction to the Russian statement.

One diplomatic official said that timing may be connected to Russia – in the wake of the chemical attacks in Syria – wanting to deflect criticism of being a chief enabler of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Likewise, the official said, it was likely that the statement is Moscow's answer to the apparently rejuvenated US efforts to revive the Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic process, and a signal that Russia is a relevant party that wants to play an active role in the process.

Israel Warns Russia Against Iranian Troops Buildup in Golan Heights

March 10, 2017

International Business Times - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused long-time enemy Iran of using the Syrian conflict to "gain a foothold to fight Israel" as Iranian troops reportedly straddle the 1967 ceasefire line in the Golan Heights.

Iran has long supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with deployments of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and the volunteer Basij militia in addition to funding Israel's arch enemies, Hezbollah.

Skirmishes between Syrian forces and the Israel Defence Force (IDF) have occurred regularly in the Golan Heights since the start of the Syrian civil war six years ago. New reports suggest that the IRGC have positioned themselves along the border with the occupied Golan Heights.

Brig Gen Mohammad-Reza Naghdi, a commander in Iran's Basij force, was pictured surveying the border in July last year according to Israeli media.

And the Tehran-backed Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba said they were "ready to take action to liberate Golan" according to Iranian state media earlier this week.

In response to rising tensions in the region Netanyahu met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to express his view that any truce in Syria must not allow Iranian forces to stay in the country.

"We discussed at length the matter of Iran, its objectives and intentions in Syria, and I clarified that there cannot be a peace deal in Syria when Iran is there and declares its intention to destroy Israel," Netanyahu said, according to Reuters.

He added: "We do not want to see Shia Islamic terrorism led by Iran step in to replace Sunni Islamic terrorism," the Independent reported.

"Iran continues attempts to destroy the Jewish state. They speak of this openly and write this in black and white in their newspapers.

"Today, we have our own country and our army and we can defend ourselves. But I want to say that the threat of Shia Islamic terror is directed not only against us but against the region and the entire world."

He claimed Iran was "arming itself and its forces against Israel including from Syria territory and is gaining a foothold to continue the fight against Israel".

Tehran has emerged as a major player in the Syrian conflict and has met Russian and Turkish envoys in Astana, Kazakhstan, in attempts to thrash out a ceasefire.

For 50 years the Golan Heights has been the scene of intermittent fighting between Israel and Syria. The Israeli army seized the 1,200 sq km (460 sq miles) of land from Syria in the Six Day War of 1967.

Syria attempted to retake the area during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The Heights were then annexed by Israel in 1981.

China May Be Preparing for a Crippling Preemptive Missile Strike on US Military Bases

February 7, 2017 

Business Insider - A new report by Thomas Shutgart on War On The Rocks details the disturbing level to which China appears to have planned out a crippling missile attack on US military bases in the Pacific should its interests in the region be threatened.

For some time analysts have noted that China seems to be tailoring its military to counter the US's. For example, Beijing tested its "carrier killer' ballistic missile on a model of a US Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, while its own aircraft carrier is designed for coastal defense and will likely be destined for the South China Sea.

But Shutgart's investigation of satellite imagery comparing China's missile testing grounds with US bases in the region shows an eerie pattern. It appears that China's latest missile tests have all been geared towards knocking out US carriers, destroyers, and airfields in East Asia.

This falls right in line with one of China's core military doctrines — "active defense."

Essentially, if China thinks it is facing a foe that actively seeks to challenge its territorial cohesiveness or sovereignty, the PLA will engage the enemy through all available means: Legal challenges, psychological and cyber warfare, counter-space systems, and preemptive strikes.

Under President Donald Trump, the US has made the most serious challenges to China's territory and sovereignty in recent history.

Trump and key members of his administration have chastised China for its "massive military fortress" in the South China Sea, and even threatened to cut off China's access to the islands it has built and militarized in the region. Trump's phone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen struck at the core of China's very existence, as it could undermine China's policy of considering Taiwan as a rogue province that must be back into Beijing's fold.

 
(CSIS Missile Defense Project)

China has already engaged its state-sponsored propaganda against the US, developed counter-space systems that could denude the US of its huge satellite-driven information advantage, and developed systems uniquely able to counter US stealth aircraft.

If the US continues to actively challenge China and seek to undermine its territorial cohesion, the next logical step in the PLA's escalation may be to attempt to eviscerate US bases and assets throughout Asia with a blistering missile attack.

Read Shutgart's full piece here»

Obama Issues Sanctions for Alleged Russian Hacking of DNC and Podesta Emails

December 29, 2016

ABC News - The U.S. government provided new details today that revealed how a state adversary broke into American computer systems and influenced the U.S. democratic process.

In a report issued this afternoon, the FBI and Department of Homeland Security outlined “technical details” that led them to conclude Russian military and intelligence services were behind a massive cyber assault on U.S. institutions, including the breach of the Democratic National Committee that became public earlier this year.

“All Americans should be alarmed by Russia’s actions,” which seek “to harm U.S. interests in violation of established international norms of behavior,” President Barack Obama said in a statement today.

U.S. officials have dubbed the alleged Russian campaign “Grizzly Steppe,” and today’s report was issued shortly after the Obama administration announced new sanctions against Russian agencies and individuals for the cyber attacks.

According to the report, two different Russian groups took part in the hack of “a U.S. political party” – a direct reference to the Democratic Party and DNC, which had tens of thousands of internal emails stolen and then released online this year.

 

The report said one group -- known as “Advanced Persistent Threat 29” or “APT 29” -- first broke into the Democratic Party’s systems in summer 2015, and then the second group -- known as “APT 28” -- successfully breached systems in spring 2016.

The groups often “trick” their victims into divulging “legitimate credentials” by closely mimicking domains and email addresses from their employers, the FBI and DHS said.

“Once APT28 and APT29 have access to victims, both groups exfiltrate and analyze information to … craft highly targeted spearphishing campaigns” and then ultimately “harvest credentials and other valuable information from their targets,” according to the report.

In fact, in summer 2015, operatives from APT29 blasted out a malicious link to more than 1,000 potential victims, many of them within the U.S. government, the report said. And that effort ultimately led to the DNC hack after at least one “targeted individual” clicked on links to malicious software and opened attachments.

“APT29 delivered malware to the political party’s systems, established persistence, escalated privileges, enumerated active directory accounts, and exfiltrated email from several accounts through encrypted connections,” the report continued.

In spring 2016, a new “spearphishing” campaign from APT28 targeting the Democratic Party “tricked recipients into changing their passwords through a fake webmail domain,” ultimately allowing hackers to “steal content,” likely including “multiple senior party members,” the FBI and DHS concluded.

“The U.S. government assesses that information was leaked to the press and publicly disclosed,” the report said.

Internal DNC messages posted online earlier this year appeared to show efforts by DNC officials to undermine Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders during the primary season.

After those damaging emails were publicly released by WikiLeaks, Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz stepped down as the DNC's chairwoman. 

https://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/

Emails stolen from the private email account of Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta, also led to a series of uncomfortable disclosures that were repeatedly highlighted by now-President-elect Donald Trump and other critics during the presidential campaign. 

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/ 

In October, DHS and the Director of National Intelligence issued a statement saying the U.S. intelligence community was “confident that the Russian government directed the recent compromises of emails from U.S. persons and institutions,” and insisting the “thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the U.S. election process.”

Today’s report expands on that statement, noting that Russian services “are continuing to engage in spearphishing campaigns, including one launched as recently as November 2016, just days after the U.S. election.”

Russia has denied any involvement in such cyber attacks.  

And Trump has continued to question the U.S. intelligence community's unanimous conclusions.

“There’s no debate in the U.S. administration about the fact -- and it's a fact -- that Russian interfered in our democratic election," an administration official told reporters today, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "I would never expect Russia to come out with their hands up and acknowledge what they did. They don’t do that.”

In their report, DHS and the FBI offered “indicators” and details from the malicious software that was used to hack the DNC and other entities, insisting those indicators are directly linked to Russian operatives. DHS also released samples of the Russian “malware” so other U.S. agencies and private companies can further defend themselves, U.S. officials said.

“The U.S. government seeks to arm network defenders with the tools they need to identify, detect and disrupt Russian malicious cyber activity that is targeting our country’s and our allies’ networks,” DHS, FBI and the DNI said in a joint statement today.

December 29, 2016
 

Good Morning America - President Obama has expelled 35 Russian nationals and sanctioned five Russian entities and four individuals for an alleged cyber assault on Democratic political organizations during the 2016 presidential campaign, the White House announced today.

Confused Barack Obama Essentially Calls Russia a ‘Weak Superpower’

December 17, 2016

THE DURAN - In his end-of-year press conference on Friday, President Barack Obama once again contradicted himself on Russia, while reiterating his belief that the Kremlin helped elect Donald Trump.

While Obama didn’t say that Russia is a small and weak superpower in a single sentence, which would have immediately raised questions about his mental condition, he clearly demonstrated a break with logic and difficulties with making up his mind on Russia’s status and role in the world.

On the one hand, he has repeated on numerous occasions, including this Friday, that Russia is a weak country that is of little interest to anyone else in the world:

“The Russians can’t change us or significantly weaken us. They are a smaller country, they are a weaker country, their economy doesn’t produce anything that anybody wants to buy except oil and gas and arms. They don’t innovate.”

While on the other hand, just a month ago, he said something completely different during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin:

“Russia is an important country. It is a military superpower. It has influence in the region and it has influence around the world. And in order for us to solve many big problems around the world, it is in our interest to work with Russia and obtain their cooperation.”

So which one is it, Mr. President?

If the two of his latest thoughts on Russia are combined, the view can be summarized as such: Russia is a small and weak superpower that doesn’t produce anything but somehow maintains strong influence around the world and is even capable of changing the outcome of elections in the greatest and most powerful nation on earth.

Putin Promises ‘Confrontation’ If Clinton Keeps Up Russia Talk

October 25, 2016

New York Post - Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a veiled threat to Hillary Clinton, saying his country will engage in “confrontation” with the US if she continues to provoke the Motherland, according to a new report.

Putin, 64, accused the Democratic presidential nominee of putting forth continued “harsh rhetoric” and “threats” against Russia for her own political gain, The Daily Star reported.

“Jeopardizing Russian-American relations in order to gain brownie points internally – I consider this to be harmful and counterproductive, Putin recently told reporters in Russia.

“It’s not funny anymore. If somebody out there wants confrontation. This is not our choice but this means that there will be problems,” Putin warned.

The former KGB spy added that Clinton was trying “to distract [American] voters from the country’s problems” by unifying voters against two common enemies – Russia and Iran.
And Putin made no secret over who he favors in the Nov. 8 election.

“Mrs. Clinton has chosen to take up a very aggressive stance against our country, against Russia. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, calls for cooperation – at least when it comes to the international fight against terrorism,” Putin said.

“Naturally we welcome those who would like to cooperate with us. And we consider it wrong, that we always have to be in conflict with one another, creating existential threats for each other and for the whole world,” Putin noted.

Russia Suspends Nuclear Agreement, Ends Uranium Research Pact with United States

October 5, 2016

Reuters - Russia further curtailed its cooperation with the United States in nuclear energy on Wednesday, suspending a research agreement and terminating one on uranium conversion, two days after the Kremlin shelved a plutonium pact with Washington.The Russian government said that as counter-measures to the U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, it was putting aside a nuclear and energy-related research pact with the United States.
 
It also said it was terminating for the same reasons an agreement between its nuclear corporation Rosatom and the U.S. Department of Energy on feasibility studies into conversion of Russian research reactors to low-enriched uranium.
 
On Monday, President Vladimir Putin suspended a treaty with Washington on cleaning up weapons grade plutonium, signaling he is willing to use nuclear disarmament as a new bargaining chip in disputes with the United States over Ukraine and Syria.
 
"The regular renewal of sanctions against Russia, which include the suspension of Russian-American cooperation in the field of nuclear energy demands the adoption of countermeasures against the U.S. side," the Russian government said on its website.
 
In Washington, a State Department spokesman said the United States had not received an official notification from Russia although he had seen media reports of the suspension of the research agreement.
 
"If they're accurate, we would regret the Russian decision to unilaterally suspend cooperation on what we believe is a very important issue that's in the interest of both of our countries," spokesman Mark Toner said at a daily news briefing.
 

Russian Television Warns of Nuclear War Amid US Tensions

October 14, 2016

Good Morning America - With diplomatic relations between Moscow and Washington at their lowest point since the Cold War, turning on Russian television can be an alarming experience. For the past month, Russian media outlets have been punctuated with reports asking people whether they are ready for nuclear war.

"If it should one day happen, every one of you should know where the nearest bomb shelter is. It’s best to find out now," according to one particularly fevered report on the Russian state-owned channel, NTV.

Russia’s main current affairs show, hosted by a presenter known by critics as the country’s propagandist-in-chief, recently spent two hours warning that Russia would defend itself with nuclear arms.

"We’ve had it with American abuse over Syria," the show’s host, Evgeny Kiselyov, told his audience. "Impudent behavior," from the U.S. towards Russia, he said, can now take on "nuclear dimensions."

Anti-Americanism is not rare on Russian state news, nor is an inclination for the apocalyptic. But more notable than the intensity of the warnings has been how Russian government ministries have joined in the alarms in recent weeks. Since September, Russia has conducted a nationwide civil defense drill, purportedly involving 40 million people, preparing them for catastrophes -- among them nuclear fallout. Russia’s military announced who would run the country in the event of war and ran an exercise simulating that in the south.
Even more bluntly, Russia announced this week it was moving nuclear-capable ballistic missiles into its Northern European enclave, Kaliningrad, putting them within striking distance of Western capitals. In the same week, Russia test-fired 3 intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Such moves have further raised the temperature with the West, already exceptionally high since the U.S. publicly accused Moscow of trying to interfere in its presidential elections and efforts by the two countries to reach a cease-fire deal terrorists in Syria, collapsed amid mutual recrimination and the renewal of ferocious airstrikes by Russian jets on the besieged city of Aleppo.

But the blood-curdling statements and military posturing, however, are very far from heralding imminent war, analysts said.

"It’s ridiculous," said Aleksander Baunov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center. "It’s not preparation for war."

Like other Russia observers, he said the atomic-fueled reports and exercises may have several purposes, but none of them were to prepare the populace for major conflict. The nuclear threats, while frightening, reflected an sense in Russia that they could be made without real fear of being taken sincerely.

"The ease with which people in this country use the nuclear threat in their aggressive rhetoric is truly amazing and of course alarming," Maria Lipman, a veteran Russian analyst and editor-in-chief of Counterpoint journal.

That relative unconcern is perhaps reflected in that the war talk does not appear to have much traction among Russians. What's more Baunov said, anti-Americanism not especially high among ordinary people currently, limited he said to official discourse.

That discourse, rather than heralding war, Baunov said, was meant to deter Western countries from intervening in Syria and in particular perhaps was meant to prevent the U.S. from responding too strongly to suspected Russian interference in the U.S. elections. Moscow, he said, is trying to set the field ahead of an incoming U.S. president, whoever wins.

Putin Sends Russian Warships to English Channel

October 15,  2016

NEWSMAX - Russian President Vladimir Putin Saturday sent a fleet of warships to the English Channel to test bombs off the British coast, according to news reports.The move put the Royal Navy on high alert, as vessels would seek to intercept the fleet as it passes within a mile of the British coast en route to Syria, The Sun reports.

The vessels are headed to the Mediterranean Sea and would join Russian naval forces in support of Moscow's bombing campaign in Syria, according to the report.

Putin's action is seen as a bold display of strength amid rising tensions between Russia and the West. The ships are expected to perform drills north of Scotland before sailing off the English coast.

NATO allies, however, are developing plans to intercept the Russian warships, The Telegraph has reported.

"It’s not catching us by surprise," a NATO official said. "We are working up what to do and we are all over it.

"The most likely thing is that they will go through the North Sea, down the Dover Strait and through the Channel.

"They might even stop off the North East coast to fly for a bit," the official told the Telegraph.

A NATO source told the Sun that Moscow's vessels could pass Britain as early as next week.

Alan West, a lord in the House of Commons who is a former Royal Navy senior officer, told the Telegraph that Russia's move risked heightening tensions.

"When people start posturing, things become dangerous," he said. "It all raises tensions and makes things more difficult and that’s not a clever thing to do.
"I find Russia very worrying at the moment," he added. "Their economy is on a war footing."

Putin's action comes days after British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson called for protests outside the Russian Embassy as he condemned Moscow's bombing campaign.

"A war crime is defined as when you attack something, attack a civilian target in the knowledge that it is a civilian target," Johnson told the Star.

He charged that Moscow could be guilty of war crimes in Syria because an aid convoy was hit by airstrikes.

"Now, Putin’s regime is not only as it were handing [Syrian President Bashar] Assad the revolver," Johnson added. "He is in some instances actually firing the revolver himself.

"The Russians themselves are actually engaged."

Russia is Building Fallout Shelters to Prepare for a Potential Nuclear Strike

Is this self-defense, an implied threat to the West, an excuse for political repression, or all of the above? 

October 17, 2016

THE DAILY BEAST — Managers of the Zenit Arena, a giant half-built stadium in St. Petersburg, received an official letter from the Ministry of Emergency Situations last week demanding that they immediately create shelter facilities for wartime. The stadium, under construction for the upcoming World Cup 2018, is located outside the city boundaries, the letter said, but in case of nuclear attack it is in the potential “zone of war destruction and radiation fallout.”

The last time Russians heard authorities talk like this about a potential mobilization for a nuclear strike was 20 years ago, and it all seemed highly improbable. Now, it appears, the Kremlin is not joking. Up to 40 million people participated in recent civil-defense exercises all across the country, learning about how to hide and where exactly to run to in case of a nuclear war.

But whether the motive behind this is self-defense, an implied threat to the West, a means to mobilize and control public opinion, or all of the above, is not entirely clear.

“These are the most serious tensions between Moscow and Washington in decades, said Sergei Markov, a member of the Civic Chamber, a Moscow-based state institution. “The war might begin even before the November elections in the U.S.”

“I personally plan to stock 200 cans of pork to be ready for a potential war crisis,” Markov told The Daily Beast in an interview, “and I advise everybody to do the same.”

State Duma Deputy Vadim Dengin said he hoped that there would be no war with United States.

“I cannot understand why the West cannot just leave us in peace, let us be,” the official said. “Americans should realize that it will be their children looking for shelters, too, if they are serious about attacking Russia.”

On Thursday, Vladimir Gladkov, a 19-year-old student, said he heard from a neighbor that the closest bomb shelter to his apartment building was Kitai Gorod metro station.

A thermonuclear bomb on Moscow?

Gladkov, who was born years after the Soviet Cold War with the United States was over, sounded frustrated: “Americans are not crazy to bomb us, I am not sure why our authorities want people to experience hysterical panic attacks. Maybe somebody feels annoyed that we feel too free and happy,” he suggested.

In Russia, where generations have suffered from wars or economic crises, panic takes over quickly as a kind of contagious epidemic and some respond with millennial obsessions.

During the impoverished years of the early 1990s, thousands of Russians moved to settlements in the Taiga seeking mystical salvation. Over 3,000 believers in Christ Vissarion still live in the Siberian woods waiting for the End of Light.

In 2012 many in Russia waited in fear for the Mayan Doomsday. People bought bottles of vodka, matches, and candles to survive the dark times.

There is an expression that every Russian knows well: “To save for a black day.” And there are so many black days in Russian history—not just days, but years of devastation.

“My life is just one everlasting black day,” says Baba Zoya, an old woman living alone in the village of Bezvodnoye in the Nizhny Novgorod region. The 82-year-old pensioner finds winters especially hard to survive.

“On some cold winter days when every joint, every bone hurts, I have no energy to go out and buy a piece of bread,” she told The Daily Beast. Her only comforts are her old dog and a falling-apart armchair outside of her old dark wood isba, a Russian traditional log house. She remembers World War II only too well—dozens of Bezvodnoye men left one day and never came back. “I wish, my dear, that you live your life without such awful memories,” she said.

Last week Perm, a city of more than 1 million people in the Ural region, prepared shelters “for the employees who would continue to work during wartime,” the state Russia channel reported.

Experts from the Ministry of Emergency Situations inspected one of the shelters to make sure there is enough space, medicine, and minimal provision; the daily norm of water was three liters per person, the channel reported.

Television shows devoted to the civil-defense drills explained to Russians that there was no reason to panic, that during wartime authorities would make sure that there was no radiation on public transport, that every person would have at least 300 grams of bread per day.

From early morning on Thursday, activists received boxes with baby food, plastic bags full of diapers and used warm clothes at Russia Behind Bars NGO, which had been supporting Russian convicts for the last eight years.

Were there bomb shelters for the population of Russia’s prisons?

“No chance to survive in prison,” the head of the NGO, Olga Romanova, told The Daily Beast. “Russian prisoners will be doomed, everybody in jail realizes that.”

For her part, Romanova said she knew exactly where she would go and how many minutes it would take for NATO missiles to reach Moscow.

“If they bomb Moscow, I might make it to Taganka metro station, it takes me about 5 minutes to run from my house,” Romanova told The Daily Beast. “My husband and I have already discussed and decided that we would only bring a couple of water bottles and our passports.”

Chinese and Russian Warplanes Intercept U.S. Military Aircraft and Patrol Near America’s West Coast

Threat from Russian and Chinese warplanes mounts

May 22, 2016

USA TODAY — Chinese and Russian warplanes have been increasingly aggressive intercepting U.S. military aircraft and patrolling near America’s West Coast, prompting the Air Force’s top combat officer to label their provocations one of his top worries.

Air Force Gen. Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, who leads Air Combat Command, said in an interview with USA TODAY that meeting the challenge from the Russian and Chinese to flights in international airspace is essential but dangerous.

“Our concern is a resurgent Russia and a very, very aggressive China,” Carlisle said.

Both countries are intent on expanding their spheres of influence — Russia in eastern Europe and the Pacific with China focusing much of its effort over the disputed South China Sea.

“Their intent is to get us not to be there,” Carlisle said. “So that the influence in those international spaces is controlled only by them. My belief is that we cannot allow that to happen. We have to continue to operate legally in international airspace and international waterways. We have to continue to call them out when they are being aggressive and unsafe.”

The stakes are high. Aggressive intercepts of U.S. patrol planes run the risk of mid-air collisions that would escalate tensions among nuclear powers.

“Any accident that occurs while the U.S. military is playing cat and mouse with Russian or Chinese forces could escalate into a real fight,” said Loren Thompson, a defense industry consultant and military analyst at the Lexington Institute. “If it does, American victory is not assured, because U.S. forces are operating thousands of miles from home and the other side is near its main bases. Small confrontations can turn into big wars, and Russian military doctrine embraces the use of nuclear weapons to win local conflicts."

An increasing number have occurred in recent months, Carlisle said, with fighters from Russia and China buzzing perilously close to American military aircraft.

The Pentagon has denounced the hazardous intercepts for more than a year, although condemnation hasn’t halted the practice. On May 17, two Chinese fighter jets flew dangerously close to a U.S. Navy patrol plane over the South China Sea. China has been on a campaign to assert its sovereignty over the busy waterways, building artificial islands on reefs in the sea and establishing military bases. In late April, a Russian fighter pilot performed a “barrel roll” over the top of an Air Force RC-135 reconnaissance plane, Carlisle said, above the Black Sea.

There has also been an uptick in long-range bomber activity from the Russians in Eastern Europe and extending to flights off the U.S. West Coast, Carlisle said.

“We have seen an increase,” Carlisle said. “All the way down to the California coast. The number and frequency has increased.”

For China, the goal appears to be establishing control of the international airspace over the South China Sea. There are conflicting territorial claims among countries in the region with China upping the ante by establishing a military bases on artificial islands around the Paracel and Spratley Islands chains.

Carlisle expects that the Chinese will institute an Air Defense Identification Zone over a large portion of the South China Sea. Zones like these extend beyond a country’s borders in its national security interests. Aircraft entering such a zone are required them to identify and locate themselves. The United States has established them after consulting with neighboring countries.

The Chinese unilaterally set up an identification zone in the East China Sea in 2013. Carlisle expects a similar action soon in the South China Sea.

“Their expansion into the Paracels and the Spratleys is so they can declare it and then have the capability to enforce it, where they can do intercepts,” Carlisle said. “They are doing it outside of what could be consider the norms.”

Maintaining communication with the Russian and Chinese military is key to avoiding mishaps, Carlisle said. Training pilots to deal with intercepts will continue.

“As they become more aggressive, you run the risk of miscalculation,” he said. “You don’t know where that’s going to lead, or end.”

History of Golan Heights and the Battle Over Control of Oil and Natural Gas

The Intra-Arab War for Oil : 1950-1970

June 9, 2015

Iakovos Alhadeff - Gamal Nasser was a socialist army officer in the Egyptian army. In 1952 Nasser, together with other Egyptian army officers, overturned the Egyptian King. Eventually Nasser became Egypt’s president, and he established a one party political system. In 1967 he decided to close the Straits of Tiran to Israel, sending at the same time many army units at the Sinai Peninsula. By closing the Straits of Tiran, Nasser was basically blocking the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline. However Israel, supported by the Americans, attacked Egypt and Syria, and during the Six Days War, the Israelis took the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights. Therefore the Eilat- Askhelon Pipeline Company was established in 1968; and, at the same time, the piece of the Trans Arabian Pipeline that was passing through the Golan Heights was no longer under Syrian control.

Gamal Nasser died in 1970, without ever achieving to control the oil of the Persian Gulf. However he had supporters in all Arab countries, and all Arab leaders attended his funeral. The only Arab leader who did not attend was the Saudi King. After all, Nasser was mainly after the Saudi oil. When Nasser was using Pan-Arabism, and the socialists of the Persian Gulf, in order to attack the Arab monarchs of the Persian Gulf, the Saudis were using Pan-Islamism and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, in order to attack Nasser. Therefore Nasser designated the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization.

However, nowadays, the Muslim Brotherhood is supported by Turkey and Erdogan. Tayip Erdogan wishes to become the new Sultan of the chaliphate. That way Turkey would play a greater role in the oil and natural gas of the Persian Gulf. As a result the Saudis have designated the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization. In a way Erdogan is for the Saudis a new Nasser. Except that Erdogan is not a socialist, like Nasser was, but he is an Islamist. That does not mean that the Saudis and the Turks cannot reach an agreement. That will depend on how much Turkey wants.

You always hear intellectuals saying how complicated the Middle East is. That’s a great lie. The Middle East is complicated only when oil and natural gas is not based at the centre of the analysis. When oil and natural gas are placed at the centre of the analysis the Middle East is the simplest region in the world. There is only one rule in the Middle East, and that is that the fastest gun takes the oil. But the intellectuals will not say that because their job, as Murray Rothbard and Ayn Rand were saying many decades ago, is to convince us about how much we need the civil servants that are paying them.