Israel Prepares for Ground Offensive Inside Lebanon and Considers Hezbollah Its Biggest Military Threat; the Next Israel-Hezbollah War Holds the Potential to be the Most Destructive
The threat of devastation on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon conflict is now enormous. Does that mean no more wars?
March 3, 2016
The Daily Beast - “Lebanon has a nuclear bomb,” Hezbollah Secretary General
Hassan Nasrallah
declared in a televised address to supporters of the Shia militant
group in Beirut last month. “This is no exaggeration,” he went on,
before admitting that it was, in fact, a slight exaggeration.
“We don’t
really have a nuclear bomb,” he said, laughing—rather, the threat was
that “several missiles” launched from Lebanon onto ammonia storage
depots in the Israeli port city of Haifa would “lead to the same impact
as a nuclear bomb.”
Citing a previous Israeli study, Nasrallah claimed
that blowing up 15,000 tons of the toxic gas in a densely populated
region of 800,000 people would lead to tens of thousands of casualties.
In Israel,
Hezbollah’s latest threat dominated national headlines, underlining the
tense cold war going on between the two old foes. Like the historic
global battle between East and West,
this more localized Middle Eastern
version sees both Israel and Hezbollah preparing tenaciously for the
next round of hostilities, a hot war of untold destruction, while
maintaining the present nervy standoff and engaging carefully, when need
be, in contained skirmishes.
“The
missiles of the resistance cover each and every spot in occupied
Palestine,” Nasrallah threatened, touting his “nuclear” option.
Yet in
line with classic deterrence theory, he went on to add:
“We do not want
war. This kind of war is not part of our strategy, but we must be ready
for it, in order to prevent it and in order to be able to win it, if it
takes place.”
Such a statement perfectly encapsulates Israel’s current strategic thinking regarding Hezbollah as well.
Nasrallah’s
boast about his group’s expansive missile capabilities is not mere
bluster. Haifa’s ammonia depots are just one of many potential targets
inside Israel. Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal, estimated at
150,000, is believed to now hold precision guidance systems—putting not
only Haifa’s heavy industries but the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF)
Kiryah Tel Aviv headquarters, the Knesset parliament building in
Jerusalem, and the nuclear reactor in Dimona in harm’s way.
A
day after Nasrallah spoke, IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot
admitted that Hezbollah was Israel’s biggest threat and the
“organization with the most significant capabilities” to inflict harm on
the country. Indeed, in private discussions IDF officers betray a
grudging respect for Hezbollah, comparing other armed groups—Hamas,
ISIS, etc.—to the Lebanese militia and finding them all wanting.
Nearly
everything Eisenkot has done since assuming the top military post one
year ago appears to have been done with Hezbollah in mind.
The
IDF is in the process of implementing a new five-year strategic plan
called “Gideon” that views sub-state armed groups like Hezbollah as
Israel’s main military threat—above conventional armies or even the
Iranian nuclear program.
As
part of Gideon, the IDF is restructuring its force posture, one element
of which was the formation of an elite Commando Brigade for more agile,
penetrating attacks against guerrilla groups. The Israeli Air Force, as
the Jerusalem Post and others have reported, has been
developing more “efficient” precision-strike capabilities that can
deliver thousands of bombs onto targets daily— to exactly combat
Hezbollah’s widely dispersed missile storage facilities and command and
control positions. More revealing still: For the past several years IDF
infantry and armor brigades have been undergoing intensive training
exercises, with an eye to a major ground offensive inside Lebanon.
Just
what that ground operation would look like recently was described for
The Daily Beast by a senior IDF officer with responsibility for Lebanon,
who spoke on condition of anonymity, according to IDF protocol.
The
difference between the last major Israel-Hezbollah confrontation in
2006, when Hezbollah held out for weeks against the once-seemingly
invincible IDF, and the next conflict, the officer explained, “will be
the difference between an operation and a war: 2006 was an operation and
we didn’t use all of our power. Next time it won’t just be planes
flying around.” (In 2006, Israel initially tried to win the fight
without putting boots on the ground.) This time, said the officer,
“Ground forces will be maneuvering into southern Lebanon, wherever
Hezbollah is—we will use all of our power to destroy Hezbollah
militarily.”
Of
course, in the 2006 war, Israel did belatedly launch an ill-defined
ground campaign. In the next conflict, the IDF seems to be promising, a
major ground offensive likely tallying several divisions is a given.