Climate Alarmist’s Predictions Don’t Match Real-world Data
May 31, 2016
TOWN HALL - Whenever there is a new record set, whether rain, hurricane, drought,
etc., those in the climate change alarmist camp seem to be quick to
point to global warming as the cause and make more dire predictions
regarding the future—even when there are other documented reasons and
even when hard data (not models) disputes the claim. Such is the case
with Lake Mead. On May 20, the federal Bureau of Reclamation
announced
that the nation’s largest reservoir reached an all-time low. The
current level slipped below the previous record set in June 2015.
Despite
reports of the mismanagement of the important water resource,
USA Today responded to the news by
proclaiming: “Due to a long drought and climate change, Lake Mead’s water levels continue to fall.”
Brad Udall, a senior water and climate research scientist at Colorado
State University, and brother to former Colorado Senator Mark Udall and
cousin to New Mexico Senator Tom Udall,
declared:
“This problem is not going away and it is likely to get worse, perhaps
far worse, as climate change unfolds.” According to the
Desert Sun, he added: “Unprecedented high temperatures in the basin are causing the flow of the river to decline.”
Udall previously
stated:
“Climate change is water change. The two go hand in hand. Heat drives
the water cycle. …You have to invoke temperatures to explain the current
drought.”
While Udall’s statements are dramatic and coincide with the climate
crisis narrative his better-known family members espouse, they do not,
according New Mexico hydrologist Mike Wallace, reflect actual
temperature and stream flow records in the Colorado River Basin. (I
highlighted Wallace’s work on ocean acidification in December 2014.)
Both Wallace and Udall claim to be experts in the hydrology and
climatology of the western U.S. However, Wallace told me: “I’m the only
hydrologist who is publishing moisture and temperature forecasts in
reaches of the Upper Colorado River, years in advance, with consistently
high accuracy.”
Wallace, who counts the city of Santa Fe as one of his
forecasting business
clients, pioneered the discovery that moisture patterns in his area of
study—which overlaps Udall’s—are deeply anchored to ocean indexes and
sunspot numbers. He boldly asserts:
“There is no correlation of CO2
emissions history to the moisture time series that I have evaluated.
Also, for the same stations that I review there is little or no
correlation of temperature to streamflow. Rather, ocean drivers can
account for changes in temperature and moisture in this region, and
those drivers appear to be driven themselves by solar cycles.”
While Udall believes temperatures are rising and causing reduced
streamflow into Lake Mead, Wallace disputes the premise. Wallace says he
has three years of successful forecast exercises to back up his claim
that, in his study areas, “temperatures are hardly trending in any
direction and, in any case, those temperatures are not correlating to
streamflow.”
Wallace’s study regions include many of the tributaries of the
Colorado River such as the San Juan River and the Green River—both of
which are sourced in the Rocky Mountains. He says:
“There haven’t been
any unusually low streamflow rates or unusually high temperatures in my
area of focus. In fact, flows are going up, not down, compared to two
and three years ago and some temperatures are actually trending down
over the same recent time frame.”
Using his proprietary method (patent pending) with more than 200
accurate forecasts, and applying to areas near the nexus of the Upper
Rio Grande and the Upper Colorado Rivers, Wallace is projecting 3-4
years of generally increased water flows, followed by 3-4 years of
generally decreasing moisture (drought). He posits that his innovations
help municipalities, flood control authorities, irrigation districts,
and resource management agencies better plan for future moisture and
temperature conditions.
Wallace has written and presented several papers on his discoveries.
But he continues to experience resistance from major peer-reviewed
journals to publish any of his findings. The troubles likely lie in his
demonstrations that emissions are uncorrelated to climate in his study
regions. In any case, scientific papers are often considered as
precursors to actual applications, and Wallace already has a working,
proven application. He is receiving steady and growing recognition from
the hydroclimate community. In April, he was an invited presenter to the
30th Annual Rio Grande Basin Snowmelt Runoff Forecast Meeting,
sponsored by the USDA SNOTEL network and attended by top regional
hydroclimate scientists from agencies including the National Weather
Service (NWS), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If Wallace is correct, and he has a successful climate forecast
record
to back up his projections, Udall can’t also be right. Wallace believes
most of Udall’s climate assertions, such as the claim that regional
temperatures explain everything about the drought, are too simplistic.
He also expresses concern regarding Udall’s use of the term “drought.”
“To accept those Lake Mead statements as factual,” Wallace said,
“anything short of an epic flooding event, must be an epic drought
event.”
The natural processes that Wallace has distilled down to a working
forecast system, don’t, in any way, appear to fit the crisis narrative
that Udall and many climate “authorities” perpetuate. You should ask if
we really need more funding, bigger departments, and greater public
anxiety to fix something that, at least, in the western U.S., appears to
wholly be explained by natural cycles.
In a Geological Society of America abstract by Dr. Easterbrook, data
showed we were in a global warming cycle from 1977 to 1998, at which
time we entered into a new global cooling period that should last for
the next three decades.
The Pacific Ocean has a warm temperature mode and a cool temperature
mode, and in the past century has switched back and forth between these
two modes every 25-30 years. This is known as the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation or PDO. In 1977 the Pacific abruptly shifted from its cool
mode (where it had been since about 1945) into its warm mode, and this
initiated global warming from 1977 to 1998. The PDO typically lasts
25-30 years and assures North America of cool, wetter climates during
its cool phases and warmer, drier climates during its warm phases.
The establishment of the cool PDO in 1998, together with similar cooling
of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), virtually assures several
decades of global cooling and the end of the past 30-year warm phase.
PDO typically lasts 25-30 years:
1. 1945 - 1977: PDO cool phase (27 years)
2. 1977 - 1998: PDO warm phase (21 years)
3. 1998 - 2028: PDO cool phase (30 years)