Climate Alarmist’s Predictions Don’t Match Real-world Data
 
May 31, 2016
TOWN HALL - Whenever there is a new record set, whether rain, hurricane, drought,
 etc., those in the climate change alarmist camp seem to be quick to 
point to global warming as the cause and make more dire predictions 
regarding the future—even when there are other documented reasons and 
even when hard data (not models) disputes the claim. Such is the case 
with Lake Mead. On May 20, the federal Bureau of Reclamation 
announced
 that the nation’s largest reservoir reached an all-time low. The 
current level slipped below the previous record set in June 2015. 
Despite 
reports of the mismanagement of the important water resource, 
USA Today responded to the news by 
proclaiming: “Due to a long drought and climate change, Lake Mead’s water levels continue to fall.”
Brad Udall, a senior water and climate research scientist at Colorado
 State University, and brother to former Colorado Senator Mark Udall and
 cousin to New Mexico Senator Tom Udall, 
declared:
 “This problem is not going away and it is likely to get worse, perhaps 
far worse, as climate change unfolds.” According to the 
Desert Sun, he added: “Unprecedented high temperatures in the basin are causing the flow of the river to decline.” 
Udall previously 
stated:
“Climate change is water change. The two go hand in hand. Heat drives 
the water cycle. …You have to invoke temperatures to explain the current
 drought.” 
While Udall’s statements are dramatic and coincide with the climate 
crisis narrative his better-known family members espouse, they do not, 
according New Mexico hydrologist Mike Wallace, reflect actual 
temperature and stream flow records in the Colorado River Basin. (I 
highlighted Wallace’s work on ocean acidification in December 2014.)
Both Wallace and Udall claim to be experts in the hydrology and 
climatology of the western U.S. However, Wallace told me: “I’m the only 
hydrologist who is publishing moisture and temperature forecasts in 
reaches of the Upper Colorado River, years in advance, with consistently
 high accuracy.”
Wallace, who counts the city of Santa Fe as one of his 
forecasting business
 clients, pioneered the discovery that moisture patterns in his area of 
study—which overlaps Udall’s—are deeply anchored to ocean indexes and 
sunspot numbers. He boldly asserts:
“There is no correlation of CO2 
emissions history to the moisture time series that I have evaluated. 
Also, for the same stations that I review there is little or no 
correlation of temperature to streamflow. Rather, ocean drivers can 
account for changes in temperature and moisture in this region, and 
those drivers appear to be driven themselves by solar cycles.” 
While Udall believes temperatures are rising and causing reduced 
streamflow into Lake Mead, Wallace disputes the premise. Wallace says he
 has three years of successful forecast exercises to back up his claim 
that, in his study areas, “temperatures are hardly trending in any 
direction and, in any case, those temperatures are not correlating to 
streamflow.” 
Wallace’s study regions include many of the tributaries of the 
Colorado River such as the San Juan River and the Green River—both of 
which are sourced in the Rocky Mountains. He says:
“There haven’t been 
any unusually low streamflow rates or unusually high temperatures in my 
area of focus. In fact, flows are going up, not down, compared to two 
and three years ago and some temperatures are actually trending down 
over the same recent time frame.”
Using his proprietary method (patent pending) with more than 200 
accurate forecasts, and applying to areas near the nexus of the Upper 
Rio Grande and the Upper Colorado Rivers, Wallace is projecting 3-4 
years of generally increased water flows, followed by 3-4 years of 
generally decreasing moisture (drought). He posits that his innovations 
help municipalities, flood control authorities, irrigation districts, 
and resource management agencies better plan for future moisture and 
temperature conditions.
Wallace has written and presented several papers on his discoveries. 
But he continues to experience resistance from major peer-reviewed 
journals to publish any of his findings. The troubles likely lie in his 
demonstrations that emissions are uncorrelated to climate in his study 
regions. In any case, scientific papers are often considered as 
precursors to actual applications, and Wallace already has a working, 
proven application. He is receiving steady and growing recognition from 
the hydroclimate community. In April, he was an invited presenter to the
 
30th Annual Rio Grande Basin Snowmelt Runoff Forecast Meeting,
 sponsored by the USDA SNOTEL network and attended by top regional 
hydroclimate scientists from agencies including the National Weather 
Service (NWS), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the National 
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If Wallace is correct, and he has a successful climate forecast 
record
 to back up his projections, Udall can’t also be right. Wallace believes
 most of Udall’s climate assertions, such as the claim that regional 
temperatures explain everything about the drought, are too simplistic. 
He also expresses concern regarding Udall’s use of the term “drought.”
“To accept those Lake Mead statements as factual,” Wallace said, 
“anything short of an epic flooding event, must be an epic drought 
event.”
The natural processes that Wallace has distilled down to a working 
forecast system, don’t, in any way, appear to fit the crisis narrative 
that Udall and many climate “authorities” perpetuate. You should ask if 
we really need more funding, bigger departments, and greater public 
anxiety to fix something that, at least, in the western U.S., appears to
 wholly be explained by natural cycles.
In a Geological Society of America abstract by Dr. Easterbrook, data 
showed we were in a global warming cycle from 1977 to 1998, at which 
time we entered into a new global cooling period that should last for 
the next three decades.
The Pacific Ocean has a warm temperature mode and a cool temperature 
mode, and in the past century has switched back and forth between these 
two modes every 25-30 years. This is known as the Pacific Decadal 
Oscillation or PDO. In 1977 the Pacific abruptly shifted from its cool 
mode (where it had been since about 1945) into its warm mode, and this 
initiated global warming from 1977 to 1998. The PDO typically lasts 
25-30 years and assures North America of cool, wetter climates during 
its cool phases and warmer, drier climates during its warm phases.
The establishment of the cool PDO in 1998, together with similar cooling
 of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), virtually assures several 
decades of global cooling and the end of the past 30-year warm phase.
 
PDO typically lasts 25-30 years:
1. 1945 - 1977: PDO cool phase (27 years)
2. 1977 - 1998: PDO warm phase (21 years)
3. 1998 - 2028: PDO cool phase (30 years)