Syria and Lebanon Will Be 'One Front' If War Erupts Against Israel

October 9, 2017

(AFP) - Israeli Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Tuesday that Lebanon and Syria would constitute "one front" against his country if a new war were to break out.

Hezbollah and Israel fought a devastating conflict in 2006, and the Lebanese Shiite group is currently backing President Bashar al-Assad's regime in the Syrian civil war.

Both countries border Israel to its north.

"In the next war in the north of the country, Lebanon will not be the only front," Lieberman said in a speech to soldiers.

"There is now only one front in the north composed of Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah, the Bashar al-Assad regime and all those who help his regime."

Lieberman added that the Lebanese army had lost "its independence by becoming an integral part of Hezbollah, which gives it its orders."

Israeli leaders frequently warn Lebanon that the country's army and civilian infrastructure would be overwhelmingly targeted if Hezbollah attacks from civilian areas.

Hezbollah is also supported by Iran, Israel's arch-enemy which backs Assad in Syria as well.

IDF Prepares Largest Military Drill in Almost 20 Years Along Lebanon Border

IDF is about to hold its largest military exercise in nearly 20 years along border with Lebanon to prepare for an invasion scenario by Hezbollah forces to Israel's northern territories.

April 4, 2017

(YNet News) - The IDF is gearing up to hold its largest military drill in nearly 20 years—a combined arms exercise along its border with Lebanon—at a time of rising tensions with Iran and Hezbollah.

A military official said Monday that the joint exercise, which will begin Tuesday and involve thousands of ground, sea and air force vehicles and personnel, will prepare soldiers for "preserving the current stability in the northern sector."

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with IDF regulations, said the drill will run through for 11 days, from Sept. 4th to Sept. 14th.

Among other systems of advanced weaponry, the exercise will incorporate Israel's multi-layered missile defense systems.

Similar to other major IDF exercises in recent years, this imaginary incident also begins with an offensive initiated by the enemy—Hezbollah—against the Galilee Division.

The IDF will respond to the "attack" in three stages: defense measures over the first few days, including counter-attacks and the deployment of defense forces akin to an air strike; an offensive attack as a second stage, with extensive ground maneuvers; and a change of mission statement as the third and last stage, in an aim to push enemy forces back into Lebanon.

"Hezbollah's initial attack" will be expressed as a simulated invasion of dozens of IDF fighters into Israeli territory and infiltration into one of the border communities. Home Front Command forces will practice the evacuation of civilians from threatened communities, as soldiers act the part of civilians in distress.

The southern Galilee will serve as southern Lebanon during the days of the drill, from Route 85 southward.

The IDF emphasized that the exercise was planned for about a year following a directive given by Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot when he took office in 2015, regardless of Iran's attempts to establish itself in Syria.

Israel has voiced growing concerns about Iran's buildup in neighboring Syria and Hezbollah's alleged stockpiling of weapons in southern Lebanon.

Russia Risks a Showdown With Israel over Hezbollah in Syria

April 29, 2017

(Newsweek) - Back in 1967, Moscow shrugged when Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser closed the Straits of Tiran, cutting shipping routes to the Israeli port of Eilat—Israel’s only one in the Red Sea. Egyptian and Syrian troop movements on the Israeli border — coupled with Nasser’s fiery rhetoric  threatening mass slaughter — paved the way for war. All the while, Moscow fed the Egyptians and Syrians erroneous information about Israeli troop movements.

The Israelis put an end to all of it with a blitzkrieg that neutralized Russia’s Arab clients in six days, and in the process seized  the West Bank, Gaza, Sinai, and much of the Golan Heights.

Fifty years later and history looks set to repeat itself. Russia’s allies are again provoking the Israelis, who may ultimately see little choice but to strike first. The ensuing war, Israel warns, could, like the Six Day War in 1967, fundamentally change the region.

The theater this time is Syria, but the precipitating factor for the next conflict — believe it or not — isn’t Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against his own people. It is Iran’s most lethal proxy, Hezbollah.

Tehran dispatched Hezbollah to buttress Assad’s beleaguered Syrian troops. The first Arab child of Iran’s Islamic revolution, the Lebanese Shiite militant organization have deployed thousands of fighters to Syria, who are now gaining valuable experience from the war.

Iran is also arming Hezbollah in preparation for the next conflict with Israel. In fall 2015, Israel’s military assessed that Hezbollah had increased its rocket arsenal from an estimated 100,000 to roughly 150,000 since the Syrian war began.

Later that year, the Russians began to carry out airstrikes against rebel groups fighting to oust Assad from Syria. Moscow had long provided Assad with arms and other provisions via its Mediterranean naval facility in Tartus. But the Russians soon deployed ground and air forces, intelligence assets, and heavy hardware to protect the Assad regime, making it clear that Syria was part of its ever-expanding sphere of influence.

Russia soon established fusion centers so that it could coordinate its war effort with Iran, Hezbollah and the Assad regime. Hezbollah has benefited from Russian air cover, and even fought alongside Russian forces against Syrian rebels.

Meanwhile Iran and its Lebanese proxy have tried to exploit both the Russian presence and the fog of war to move what Israelis have called “game-changing weapons” from the war zone to Lebanon. Israeli officials say the weapons they are attempting to acquire include long-range and high payload rockets, lethal anti-ship missiles, and perhaps even sophisticated anti-aircraft systems.

The Next War Between Israel and Lebanon Will Be Only a Matter of Time and Will Be More Destructive Than Ever Before

Israel 'readier' for new Hezbollah war

July 12, 2016

BBC News - Some Israelis refer to the war with Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah 10 years ago as a national trauma. Its civilians in the north of the country came under attack and Israel hit back hard, bombing Lebanese towns and infrastructure.

It was a conflict many feel Israel was not prepared for. Thirty-three days after it was triggered by a deadly cross-border attack by Hezbollah, it ended with a ceasefire.

Hezbollah was damaged, but rebuilt over the past decade with the help of Iran and Syria. Israel says the group's firepower is now much greater than before the war.

"Now they have more than 120,000 rockets and missiles," says General Yaakov Amidror, a former national security advisor, now with the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv.

"It's a huge number that you don't find in any country in Europe for example. When you see all these efforts, you ask yourself one question - what for?"

The Israeli military sees Hezbollah as a stronger, more professional fighting force and says it should be treated as an army - and it has had to raise its game.

"The military is such an important issue in Israeli society, there are very high expectations," says defence journalist Amos Harel.

He says in 2006 the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were not equipped for conflict with Hezbollah "because they were so busy fighting the second intifada [Palestinian uprising] in the West Bank and in Gaza. We need our reserves to be more ready and all of this has been done and there's been quite a lot of operational changes."

Israel Warns That Any Future Crisis with Hezbollah Will Unleash Full-scale War on Lebanon

Israeli general warns of 'devastating war' with Hezbollah

April 20, 2016

AP –  A top Israeli military leader on Wednesday issued a stern warning to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, saying any future war between the two enemies will unleash "devastating" damage on Lebanon.

Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, Israel's deputy chief of staff, told foreign journalists that Hezbollah has developed capabilities that present "unprecedented" threats to Israel. Israel estimates the group has over 100,000 rockets and missiles in its arsenal.

Golan said any future war will be "much harsher" than anything experienced in the past 20 years.

"In any future crisis, they are not going to see a small war in Lebanon. It's going to be decisive. It's going to be full-scale war," he said.

"That could create devastating damage to Lebanon," including in civilian areas, where he said Hezbollah hides and operates. "There is no other way to take out this threat without ... creating large damage to the Lebanese infrastructure, to Lebanese houses and other civilian facilities."

Israel and Hezbollah fought a monthlong war in the summer of 2006 that ended in a stalemate.

The fighting killed about 1,200 Lebanese, including hundreds of civilians, and about 160 Israelis. Israeli airstrikes caused heavy damage to Lebanon's infrastructure, while Lebanon fired several thousand rockets into Israel. Israeli officials say Hezbollah's improved missile arsenal is now capable of striking virtually anywhere in the country.

Hezbollah Leader Warns Israel Against Attacking Lebanon

Anthony Bourdain No Reservations S06E21, Back To Beirut


In 2008 Syria and Lebanon established diplomatic relations. The reason: Iran, Syria’s main ally, is financing Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is playing an increasingly important role in Lebanon. Moreover, Iran brought forward the project of the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Pipeline. [Source]

"Regarding the May 29 op-ed by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh, “Strategic anti-Semitism in Iran”:

Iran is not anti-Semitic. It is anti-Zionist, and so are some Jewish people. Iran has a seat in parliament for a Jewish Iranian citizen to represent the 25,000-strong Jewish community in Iran. The op-ed conflated hatred of Jews — anti-Semitism — with political opposition to the apartheid-like Jewish identity of Israel, its violent origins and its continuing violent oppression of Palestinians. Many anti-Zionist Jewish supporters of Israel, including me, who seek to find ways to make real peace with the Arabs and Palestinians are thus identified, along with Iran, as “anti-Semites.” The situation demands more than propaganda." - Charles Kestenbaum, Vienna, Vice President of the Middle East & North Africa Consultants Association.

Hezbollah Chief Warns Israel There Will Be 'No Red Lines'

March 21, 2016

AP - The leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah has warned Israel against attacking Lebanon, saying it will fight any new war with the Jewish state without any red lines.

In an interview with the Lebanon-based Al-Mayadeen station Monday, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah says the group has a comprehensive list of targets in Israel that includes nuclear reactors and biological research centers it can hit.

"There will be no ceiling, limits or red lines," he said. "We can strike any target we want inside occupied Palestine."

The Iranian-backed Hezbollah fought Israel to a draw during a ferocious month-long war in 2006. The border between the two countries has been largely quiet since then.

Israel Prepares for Ground Offensive Inside Lebanon and Considers Hezbollah Its Biggest Military Threat; the Next Israel-Hezbollah War Holds the Potential to be the Most Destructive

Hezbollah Claims a ‘Nuclear Option’ in Tense Standoff with Israel

The threat of devastation on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon conflict is now enormous. Does that mean no more wars? 

March 3, 2016

The Daily Beast - “Lebanon has a nuclear bomb,” Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah declared in a televised address to supporters of the Shia militant group in Beirut last month. “This is no exaggeration,” he went on, before admitting that it was, in fact, a slight exaggeration.

“We don’t really have a nuclear bomb,” he said, laughing—rather, the threat was that “several missiles” launched from Lebanon onto ammonia storage depots in the Israeli port city of Haifa would “lead to the same impact as a nuclear bomb.” 

Citing a previous Israeli study, Nasrallah claimed that blowing up 15,000 tons of the toxic gas in a densely populated region of 800,000 people would lead to tens of thousands of casualties.

In Israel, Hezbollah’s latest threat dominated national headlines, underlining the tense cold war going on between the two old foes. Like the historic global battle between East and West, this more localized Middle Eastern version sees both Israel and Hezbollah preparing tenaciously for the next round of hostilities, a hot war of untold destruction, while maintaining the present nervy standoff and engaging carefully, when need be, in contained skirmishes.

“The missiles of the resistance cover each and every spot in occupied Palestine,” Nasrallah threatened, touting his “nuclear” option.

Yet in line with classic deterrence theory, he went on to add:

“We do not want war. This kind of war is not part of our strategy, but we must be ready for it, in order to prevent it and in order to be able to win it, if it takes place.”

Such a statement perfectly encapsulates Israel’s current strategic thinking regarding Hezbollah as well. 

Nasrallah’s boast about his group’s expansive missile capabilities is not mere bluster. Haifa’s ammonia depots are just one of many potential targets inside Israel.  Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal, estimated at 150,000, is believed to now hold precision guidance systems—putting not only Haifa’s heavy industries but the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) Kiryah Tel Aviv headquarters, the Knesset parliament building in Jerusalem, and the nuclear reactor in Dimona in harm’s way.

A day after Nasrallah spoke, IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot admitted that Hezbollah was Israel’s biggest threat and the “organization with the most significant capabilities” to inflict harm on the country.  Indeed, in private discussions IDF officers betray a grudging respect for Hezbollah, comparing other armed groups—Hamas, ISIS, etc.—to the Lebanese militia and finding them all wanting. 

Nearly everything Eisenkot has done since assuming the top military post one year ago appears to have been done with Hezbollah in mind. 

The IDF is in the process of implementing a new five-year strategic plan called “Gideon” that views sub-state armed groups like Hezbollah as Israel’s main military threat—above conventional armies or even the Iranian nuclear program. 

As part of Gideon, the IDF is restructuring its force posture, one element of which was the formation of an elite Commando Brigade for more agile, penetrating attacks against guerrilla groups. The Israeli Air Force, as the Jerusalem Post and others have reported, has been developing more “efficient” precision-strike capabilities that can deliver thousands of bombs onto targets daily— to exactly combat Hezbollah’s widely dispersed missile storage facilities and command and control positions. More revealing still: For the past several years IDF infantry and armor brigades have been undergoing intensive training exercises, with an eye to a major ground offensive inside Lebanon.

Just what that ground operation would look like recently was described for The Daily Beast by a senior IDF officer with responsibility for Lebanon, who spoke on condition of anonymity, according to IDF protocol.

The difference between the last major Israel-Hezbollah confrontation in 2006, when Hezbollah held out for weeks against the once-seemingly invincible IDF, and the next conflict, the officer explained, “will be the difference between an operation and a war: 2006 was an operation and we didn’t use all of our power. Next time it won’t just be planes flying around.” (In 2006, Israel initially tried to win the fight without putting boots on the ground.) This time, said the officer, “Ground forces will be maneuvering into southern Lebanon, wherever Hezbollah is—we will use all of our power to destroy Hezbollah militarily.”

Of course, in the 2006 war, Israel did belatedly launch an ill-defined ground campaign. In the next conflict, the IDF seems to be promising, a major ground offensive likely tallying several divisions is a given.

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia vs. Islamic Republic of Iran

A proxy war in the Middle-East

October, 2015    

The Maghreb and Orient Courier - The Middle East is currently the scene of a huge proxy war involving the oil-rich regional powers. Both countries are the main leaders for their own Muslim faith in the world, Sunni for Saudi Arabia, and Shia for Iran, and are supporting governments, legalized or banned opposition groups, or insurgency groups in those countries where popular protests have emerged in the recent years and have challenged legal powers.

A Short History of the Alliance Between Syria and Iran

"The strategy for the Iraq war is now making itself known. By using 9/11 as a pretext to invade Afghanistan, Iran is flanked on the east side. By using the Desert Storm protocols and UN Resolution 1441, among others, the excuse to invade and occupy Iraq is brought forward because Saddam is not disarming, we are told. By taking Iraq, the U.S. forces then flank Iran to the West. Having troops stationed in Turkey is a key part of this plan, for then Iran is flanked to the North, which is why so much pressure is being applied to Turkey to allow our troops there. Although we cannot be sure which incidents will be used to bring war with Iran, we can be sure something will transpire to make is necessary to invade Iran, and most likely Syria would be next. Syria is also isolated in all directions. With Israel the main benefactor in the Middle East, this strategy will totally rearrange the Middle Eastern landscape and set the stage for the appointment of the 10 puppet kings of Revelation chapter 17, which have no 'kingdom yet' but will with the beast for 42 months." - Stewart C. Best, March 2003, The Strategy for Taking the Middle East 

Iran and Syria, the ties that bind

October 31, 2015

AFP - Iran's first presence in international talks on Syria underscore a special relationship between the two countries' governments, based in part on a joint adherence to the Shiite branch of Islam.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and top officials of his regime are members of the country's Alawite minority, a Shiite offshoot.

Here is a short history of relations between the two nations since Iran became an Islamic republic.

Iran is Tightening Its Grip from Iraq to Lebanon, and Syria to Yemen in an All-out Sectarian War Between Sunnis and Shi'ites

Iran expands regional 'empire' ahead of nuclear deal

March 23, 2015

Reuters - With Iran moving closer to a deal with world powers to constrain its nuclear program in return for an end to sanctions, Arab analysts and leaders are focused more on how Tehran is working unconstrained to tighten its grip on Arab states, from Iraq to Lebanon, and Syria to Yemen.

The man behind what some see as an attempt to create a new Persian and Shi'ite "empire" on Arab land is Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the al-Quds brigade of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Since he emerged from the shadows last autumn, Soleimani seems to be omnipresent on the battlefields of the Middle East.

Photos of Soleimani, 60, almost an invisible man until the Sunni jihadis of Islamic State (IS) overran cities in northern and central Iraq last year, are now everywhere.

He is seen directing operations in the battle to recapture from IS the Sunni city of Tikrit, birthplace of Saddam Hussein. He is snapped in Syria offering condolences on the killing of a relative of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president he has helped cling to power during four years of war.

In Beirut he is photographed praying at the grave of Jihad Mughniyeh, son of the late commander of the IRGC-backed Hezbollah paramilitary group. Jihad was killed in Syria in January.

Meanwhile, the heterodox Shi'ite Houthi movement in Yemen has seized power in the capital, Sanaa, to Iranian acclaim and the alarm of Sunni Arab states such as neighboring Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional rival.