Iran is Tightening Its Grip from Iraq to Lebanon, and Syria to Yemen in an All-out Sectarian War Between Sunnis and Shi'ites

Iran expands regional 'empire' ahead of nuclear deal

March 23, 2015

Reuters - With Iran moving closer to a deal with world powers to constrain its nuclear program in return for an end to sanctions, Arab analysts and leaders are focused more on how Tehran is working unconstrained to tighten its grip on Arab states, from Iraq to Lebanon, and Syria to Yemen.

The man behind what some see as an attempt to create a new Persian and Shi'ite "empire" on Arab land is Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the al-Quds brigade of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Since he emerged from the shadows last autumn, Soleimani seems to be omnipresent on the battlefields of the Middle East.

Photos of Soleimani, 60, almost an invisible man until the Sunni jihadis of Islamic State (IS) overran cities in northern and central Iraq last year, are now everywhere.

He is seen directing operations in the battle to recapture from IS the Sunni city of Tikrit, birthplace of Saddam Hussein. He is snapped in Syria offering condolences on the killing of a relative of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president he has helped cling to power during four years of war.

In Beirut he is photographed praying at the grave of Jihad Mughniyeh, son of the late commander of the IRGC-backed Hezbollah paramilitary group. Jihad was killed in Syria in January.

Meanwhile, the heterodox Shi'ite Houthi movement in Yemen has seized power in the capital, Sanaa, to Iranian acclaim and the alarm of Sunni Arab states such as neighboring Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional rival.


Such is Soleimani’s personal sway that a Syrian opposition website has put up a spoof election poster saying: “Vote for Qassem Soleimani, President of Syria."

GAME CHANGER?

Iran may be serious about a nuclear deal that ends its pariah status and the crippling sanctions. But it has been maximizing its strength across the Middle East and, because Iranian forces and allied militias are spearheading the fight against IS in Iraq and Syria, Sunni Arab leaders believe the United States will do nothing to stop this.

This month, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assured Saudi leaders there would be no “grand bargain” with Tehran attached to any deal. Yet in a news conference at which Kerry acknowledged that Soleimani was involved in Tikrit, his host, Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal, almost exploded.

“The situation in Tikrit is a prime example of what we’re worried about,” said Prince Saud. “Iran is taking over Iraq.”

That is why, regional analysts say, it is not so much the prospective nuclear deal that is panicking the Gulf and its Sunni allies such as Egypt, but what a U.S.-Iran rapprochement may bring.

Sultan al-Qassemi, a commentator in the United Arab Emirates, says: 

“The Iranian deal is a game-changer for the region and I think it is going to encourage Iran to pursue an even more assertive foreign policy.

“This deal is the grand bargain Kerry is denying it is. It is giving Iran carte blanche in exchange for empty promises. Iran is on the ascendant. Iran has the winning hand in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen."

Riad Kahwaji, head of the Dubai-based INEGMA think tank, warned of “all-out sectarian war” between Sunnis and Shi'ites.

“The events in Iraq, Syria and Yemen indicate that Iran is on a massive offensive under the cover of a U.S.-led war on terrorism, to gain strategic depth that has extended its areas of control all the way to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.”

SECTARIAN FIRESTORM REKINDLED

The schism between Sunnis and Shi'ites dates from shortly after the dawn of Islam 14 centuries ago. In modern times, this often translated into rivalry between the Wahhabi fundamentalism of Sunni Saudi Arabia and the Shi’ite theocracy of Iran.

But the overthrow of Saddam's Sunni minority rule by the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 and its replacement by a Shi'ite Islamist government under the sway of Iran has rekindled a sectarian firestorm.

The Saudis and their allies have backed Sunni forces, including rebels fighting to topple Assad. Riyadh formally backs mainstream rebels in this increasingly Sunni-Shi'ite stand-off, but support from Gulf states and nationals is believed to have reached jihadi groups.

That is certainly an alibi used by Shi'ites to justify intervention.

In Syria, when Assad seemed likely to succumb to the mainly Sunni rebellion two years ago, Iran deployed its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.

Soleimani and the al-Quds brigade, created in 1980 to export Iran’s Islamic Revolution, patched together a network of loyalist militias that is now the backbone of Syrian rule.

In Iraq, after the IS eruption in mid-2014, the al-Quds commander put together a similar coalition of Shi’ite militias, first to defend Baghdad and the south and now to carry the fight northwards into jihadi strongholds such as Tikrit.

His allies in Iran, meanwhile, such as Tehran MP Ali Reza Zakani – like Soleimani, close to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – boast they have three Arab capitals in the bag, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, with Sanaa soon to follow.

According to Iran’s Rasa new agency, Zakani said that “had Hajj Qassem Soleimani not intervened in Iraq, Baghdad would have fallen, and the same applies to Syria; without the will of Iran, Syria would have fallen.”

Describing events in Yemen as a “natural extension” of the Iranian revolution, Zakani predicted 14 of Yemen's 20 provinces would soon be under Houthi control.

“The Yemeni revolution will not be confined to Yemen alone” he said. It would extend into Saudi territories – a reference not only to the kingdom’s long, porous border with Yemen but the Shi'ite Eastern Province where Saudi Arabia’s richest oil deposits lie.

FOUR CAPITALS IN THE BAG?

John Jenkins, until last year British ambassador to Saudi Arabia and now with the International Institute of Strategic Studies, suggests US inattention to the region’s concerns is worrying.

“Already we see Iranian officials saying that they control four Arab capitals, and we have seen Houthi delegations travel to Tehran and Baghdad. This plays into the Gulf Arab narrative that they are being sold down the river,” Jenkins says.

“The U.S. presence in the region is as strong as its ever been, but the Gulf Arabs' questions are about the Western will to act. They've seen examples in Lebanon and Syria of US inaction. And Yemen is the tip of the spear as far as the Saudis are concerned. Behind Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen stands Iran."

While the Obama administration seeks to reassure Arab allies that it remains committed to them, analysts say Washington's priority is to stop Iran from developing an atomic bomb and halt IS expansion.

"Obama believes that reaching a nuclear deal with Iran could be his foreign policy legacy. The Americans are not looking at the deal with Iran in terms of its regional impact," says Fawaz Gerges, Middle East expert at the London School of Economics.

"The U.S. deal with Iran would deeply intensify a new cold war that has been unfolding between Saudi Arabia and its allies on one hand and Iran. It would likely pour more gasoline on the raging fires in the Arab heartland."

Iran has three Arab capitals in the bag, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, with Sanaa soon to follow,

Exclusive: Saudi Arabia building up military near Yemen border - U.S. officials

March 24, 2015

Reuters - Saudi Arabia is moving heavy military equipment including artillery to areas near its border with Yemen, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, raising the risk that the Middle East’s top oil power will be drawn into the worsening Yemeni conflict.

The buildup follows a southward advance by Iranian-backed Houthi Shi'ite militants who took control of Yemen's capital Sanaa in September and seized the central city of Taiz at the weekend as they move closer to the new southern base of U.S.-supported President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.

The slide toward war in Yemen has made the country a crucial front in Saudi Arabia's region-wide rivalry with Iran, which Riyadh accuses of sowing sectarian strife through its support for the Houthis.

The conflict risks spiraling into a proxy war with Shi'ite Iran backing the Houthis, whose leaders adhere to the Zaydi sect of Shi'ite Islam, and Saudi Arabia and the other regional Sunni Muslim monarchies backing President Hadi.

The armor and artillery being moved by Saudi Arabia could be used for offensive or defensive purposes, two U.S. government sources said. Two other U.S. officials said the build-up appeared to be defensive.

One U.S. government source described the size of the Saudi buildup on Yemen's border as "significant" and said the Saudis could be preparing air strikes to defend Hadi if the Houthis attack his refuge in the southern seaport of Aden.

Another U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Washington had acquired intelligence about the Saudi build-up. But there was no immediate word on the precise location near the border or the exact size of the force deployed.

Hadi, who supported Washington’s campaign of deadly drone strikes on a powerful al Qaeda branch based in Yemen, has been holed up in Aden with his loyalist forces since he fled Sanaa in February. On Tuesday, forces loyal to Hadi drove Houthi fighters from two towns they had seized hours earlier, residents said, apparently checking an advance by the Shi'ite fighters toward Aden.

SAUDIS "DEEPLY CONCERNED"

Saudi Arabia faces the risk of the turmoil spilling across its porous 1,800 km (1,100 mile)-long border with Yemen and into its Shi'ite Eastern Province where the kingdom's richest oil deposits lie.

“The Saudis are just really deeply concerned about what they see as an Iranian stronghold in a failed state along their border,” U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Matthew Tueller told Reuters on Monday at a conference hosted by the National U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce in Washington.

But a former senior U.S. official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the prospects for successful external intervention in Yemen appeared slim. He said Hadi’s prospects appeared to be worsening and that for now he was “pretty well pinned down.”

Riyadh hosted top-level talks with Gulf Arab neighbors on Saturday that backed Hadi as Yemen's legitimate president and offered "all efforts" to preserve the country's stability.

Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said on Monday Arab countries would take necessary measures to protect the region against "aggression" by the Houthi movement if a peaceful solution could not be found.

In March 2011, Saudi troops, along with those from the United Arab Emirates, entered neighboring Bahrain after weeks of protests by that country’s Shi’ite majority that Riyadh feared could lead to an expansion of Iran’s influence.

A spokesman for the Saudi embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment on any military movements.

Yemen asked the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday to back military action by "willing countries" to combat Houthi militias, according to a letter from Hadi seen by Reuters.

Hadi wants the 15-member body to adopt a resolution that would authorize "willing countries that wish to help Yemen to provide immediate support for the legitimate authority by all means and measures to protect Yemen and deter the Houthi aggression."

Fighting has spread across the Arabian peninsula country since last September when the Houthis seized Sanaa and advanced into Sunni Muslim areas.

U.S. officials said on Saturday that the United States had evacuated all its remaining personnel in Yemen, including about 100 special operations forces, because of the security situation. The end of a U.S. security presence inside the country has dealt a blow to Washington's ability to monitor and fight al Qaeda's Yemen affiliate.

The Houthis have denied taking material and financial support from Tehran. But last year Yemeni, Western and Iranian sources gave Reuters details of Iranian military and financial support to the Houthis before and after their takeover of Sanaa last year.

However, U.S. officials have said that Iranian backing for the Houthi rebels has been largely limited to funding. They say Iran has its hands full providing armed assistance to its allies in Syria and Iraq.

Yemen president quits, throwing country deeper into chaos

2016 UPDATE: Yemen has been torn by a ferocious war pitting the Houthis and forces loyal to a former president against fighters loyal to exiled President Mansour Hadi, as well as southern separatists, local militias and Sunni extremists. The conflict escalated in March as a Saudi-led, U.S.-backed coalition launched an air campaign against the Houthis. On January 7, 2016, supporters of the Houthi movement protested against the execution of Shi'ite Muslim cleric Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia, during a demonstration outside the Saudi embassy in Sanaa, Yemen. The posters read: "Martyr Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr". [Reuters, January 7, 2016]

January 22, 2015 

Reuters - Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi resigned on Thursday, days after Houthi rebels battled their way into his presidential palace, plunging the unstable Arab country deeper into chaos and depriving Washington of a key ally against al Qaeda.

Hadi, a former general, blamed the Houthis' control of Sanaa for impeding his two-year-long attempt to steer Yemen toward stability after years of secessionist and tribal unrest, deepening poverty, and U.S. drone strikes on Islamist militants.

The announcement startled the Arabian Peninsula country of 25 million, where the Iran-backed Houthis emerged as the dominant faction by seizing the capital Sanaa in September and dictating terms to a humiliated Hadi.

"This is a coup," said Ahmed al-Fatesh, a hotel security supervisor, suggesting Hadi had been bullied from office. "The Houthis took power by force. Hadi is a legitimate president and was elected by more than 6 million Yemenis. Hadi tried to bring the political forces together."

In the first sign that the turmoil would affect U.S. operations in Yemen, Washington said it had pulled out more staff from its embassy in Sana due to the worsening security situation.

"While the Embassy remains open and is continuing to operate, we may continue to re-align resources based on the situation on the ground," a senior State Department Official told Reuters.

U.S. authorities have made clear they want to avoid shutting the compound, which is important for counterterrorism cooperation with Yemeni security forces in the fight against a powerful al Qaeda branch based in the country.

The Houthi movement said it had no official reaction as yet to Hadi's resignation, but urged Yemenis to stage mass rallies to show their support on Friday afternoon.

A statement urged the army to "uphold" its responsibilities and called on Houthi fighters to be on alert.

Hadi, who has led a United Nations-mandated bid to make political reforms and bury the autocracy and graft of the past, stood down shortly after Prime Minister Khaled Bahah had offered his government's resignation, saying it did not want to be dragged into "an unconstructive political maze".

This was a reference to a standoff between Hadi and the Shi'ite Muslim Houthi movement which this week has been holding the president a virtual prisoner in his official residence.

"We apologize to you personally and to the honorable chamber and to the Yemeni people after we reached a dead end," a government spokesman quoted Hadi's resignation letter as saying.

It was addressed to the speaker of parliament, who becomes interim head of state under the Yemeni constitution.

Sultan al-Atwani, one of Hadi's advisors, told Reuters he had resigned after pressure and threats from the Houthis. He also said parliament would meet on Saturday to decide whether to accept or reject it.

The official Saba news agency said there would be an emergency meeting of parliament on Sunday.

Late on Thursday, Houthi fighters took up positions around the parliament building, residents say.

In the southern city of Aden, unidentified gunmen attacked two military armored vehicles in the early hours of Friday, two local officials told Reuters. Three explosions were heard in Aden during the attack, which was followed by the clashes, said one of the officials, who declined to be identified.

The departure of Hadi, a southerner, has caused anger in Aden, a key port city where officials reacted by telling security officers to only obey orders issued in Aden, an implicit snub to institutions in the north, where Sanaa is.

Earlier in the week, Aden closed its ports briefly in protest against Houthi militia attacks on state institutions in Sanaa, calling them an "aggressive coup on the president personally and on the political process as a whole".

Hadi's decision marked an abrupt turnaround from Wednesday, when he said he was ready to accept Houthi demands for a bigger stake in constitutional and political arrangements.

This map shows the brewing proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia

January 8, 2016

Business Insider - The following map by Emmanuel Pene, from The Maghreb and Orient Courier, beautifully highlights the battle lines in the Middle East between the two powers, where they are currently clashing, and their respective zones of influence.

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(Emmanuel Pene/Agathocle de Syracuse/The Maghreb and Orient Courier)

The map was first published in November 2015. And although the facts on the ground have not changed substantially since that time, tensions have continued to rise exponentially. 

On January 2, Saudi Arabia executed 47 alleged terrorists, including a prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr. The execution immediately drew outrage from the Shiite world and culminated in an Iranian mob torching the Saudi Arabian embassy in Tehran and clashes between the Shiite majority in Bahrain and the police in the Sunni-run country on January 3.

In response to these events, Saudi Arabia has severed diplomatic ties with Iran. So far, Sudan, Bahrain, and Somalia have also cut diplomatic ties with Iran in an expansion of tensions throughout the region. 

The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have both also downgraded diplomatic relations with Iran following Saudi Arabia's lead.