Japan's Nuclear Crisis Is a Slow-moving Nightmare

Japan’s Nuclear Crisis: Where Things Stand

March 16, 2011

The Lookout - The ongoing crisis at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has turned into what one analyst calls "a slow-moving nightmare," with fires, leaks of poisonous radiation, and mass evacuations.

With events shifting quickly, and a sometimes confusing succession of announcements coming from authorities, it can be hard to get a clear sense of exactly what's happening, and of what to expect going forward. So here's a rundown, based on several recent news reports, on where things stand five days in.

What's at the root of the problem?

Friday's earthquake and tsunami caused power outages across northern Japan-- including at the Daiichi plant, which is made up of six separate reactors. The loss of power caused a failure of the reactors' cooling systems, which normally keep the nuclear fuel from overheating and melting down and/or triggering an explosion, releasing poisonous radiation into the atmosphere.

What's the current situation at the plant?

Yesterday, an explosion caused the containment vessel covering the Number 2 reactor to crack, releasing into the air a surge of radiation 800 times more intense than the recommended hourly exposure limit in Japan. The accident reportedly damaged one third of the fuel rods at the reactor. In addition, another powerful explosion blew a 26-foot- wide hole in the side of Number 4 reactor, causing fires to break out and a pool containing spent fuel rods to begin dangerously overheating.

The Japanese military tried to use helicopters to dump water from the air to cool the Number 4 reactor, but that plan was abandoned after a third explosion -- this one damaging the roof and cooling system of the Number 3 reactor -- because it would have meant flying a helicopter into radioactive steam. Water was also poured into the Numbers 5 and 6 reactors, suggesting that essentially the entire plant could be at risk of overheating.

In what appears to have been an understatement, the plant operator described the situation at the Number 4 reactor as "not so good." But in some ways, the rupture at the Number 3 reactor is especially troubling, because it's the only reactor that uses plutonium as part of its fuel mix. If absorbed into the bloodstream, plutonium can stay in the liver or bone marrow and cause cancer.

How much of the surrounding area is likely to be affected by the radiation?

The government has told the roughly 140,000 people who live within 18 miles of the plant to stay indoors, but has said that people outside that zone can safely go outside. However, some experts have accused the Japanese authorities of underplaying the severity of the crisis. The U.S. embassy has recommended that Americans within 50 miles of the plant evacuate the area or stay indoors.

Tokyo, 180 miles south of the plant, has recorded radiation levels only slightly above normal. Still, both France and Australia have urged their nationals throughout the country to leave, and many Tokyo residents have been staying indoors. One American couple living in Tokyo told family members that they don't yet see a need to leave, but are monitoring the situation closely.

What other ideas are being considered?

In what experts describe as a last-ditch effort, police are hoping to use a water cannon-- usually used to quell riots--to cool the nuclear fuel. Officials have also proposed using boric acid, which can help slow nuclear reactions by absorbing neutrons.

On Monday, 750 workers were withdrawn from the facility, leaving a core of 50 to battle the crisis alone while exposing themselves to potentially deadly levels of radiation. But even those workers appeared to have been withdrawn today after a surge in radiation caused by new explosions made the area too dangerous.

What are the best- and worst-case scenarios?

The best case scenario is that efforts to cool the fuel rods succeed, and damage to the surrounding environment is limited to an area within about 15 miles of the plant. The worst is a full-scale meltdown of the reactors caused by overheating, which would release much larger amounts of radiation into the air than has yet occurred. In that case, the damage could potentially approach the level of the Soviet Union's 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Fatalities from Chernobyl's meltdown were not closely monitored, but estimates range from 4000 to close to one million.

How does the crisis rank, in terms of nuclear plant accidents?

On Saturday, Japanese authorities ranked the incident a Level Four on a one-to-seven scale used to gauge the severity of nuclear accidents. But things have worsened since then, and yesterday France's nuclear authority said it should be classified as a Level Six. Chernobyl is the only Level 7 accident ever to have occurred.

Analysis: Worst Case Nuclear Cloud Seen Limited to Japan

March 16, 2011

Reuters – In the worst case, any radioactive cloud from Japan's damaged nuclear plant is likely to be limited to the densely populated nation -- unlike the wider fallout from the Chernobyl disaster, experts say.

The 1986 blast in then-Soviet Ukraine, when the reactor exploded, contaminated large parts of Europe in the world's worst nuclear disaster. At the Fukushima plant, the explosive potential within the six reactors is easing with time.

"In the worst case, a radioactive cloud would not go that far up in the atmosphere," said Jan Beranek, head of environmental group Greenpeace's International Nuclear Campaign.

"That is good news for the world, but bad news for Japan."

[Related: What is acute radiation syndrome?]

Despite assurances by Japanese authorities about low health risks, the crisis at the Fukushima plant has worsened since Friday's quake-caused tsunami, with desperate, unsuccessful attempts on Wednesday to water-bomb the facility.

"We are at the beginning of the catastrophic phase," Sebastian Pflugbeil, president of the private, German-based Society for Radiation Protection, said of Japan's efforts to pull the Fukushima plant back from the brink.

"Maybe we have to pray," he said, adding that a wind blowing any nuclear fallout east into the Pacific would limit any damage for Japan's 127 million population in case of a meltdown or other releases, for instance from spent fuel storage "ponds."

Japan placed top priority on Wednesday on efforts to cool down a plutonium-fueled nuclear reactor at Fukushima -- the only one of six not fueled by less hazardous uranium. Some countries advised their nationals to leave the country.

Many experts expect the outcome to be worse than the partial reactor meltdown at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979, which caused no widespread health damage, but less severe than Chernobyl.

A U.N. study estimated that there could be 4,000 to 9,000 extra cancer deaths from Chernobyl, but Greenpeace has said that the disaster could cause more than 250,000 cancer cases, including 100,000 fatalities.

"In Chernobyl the whole plant core exploded," said Malcolm Crick, Secretary of the U.N. Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). "But there was also a lot of heat and that lifted it high into the atmosphere."

He said Fukushima was "a serious situation but it's too early to say" what the worst outcome could be.

Malcolm Grimston, a nuclear expert at the Chatham House think-tank in Britain, said Fukushima was not like Chernobyl.

"We're nearly five days after the fission process was stopped, the levels of radioactive iodine will only be about two-thirds of where they were at the start, some of the other very short-lived, very radioactive material will be gone altogether by now," he said.

"The situation may recede or deteriorate and lead to a massive radiation leak to the atmosphere," said Professor Javier Dies, head of Nuclear Engineering at the Polytechnic University of Barcelona. "As things stand, this cannot be ruled out."

Greenpeace's Beranek said that heavy pollution from cesium could make some areas of Japan near the plant uninhabitable, at least for decades, as happened around Chernobyl. Pflugbeil also said some areas might be off-limits.

Laurence G. Williams, Professor of Nuclear Safety at the John Tyndall Institute for Nuclear Research in Britain, said he did not see a Chernobyl-type blast as likely.

"I can't think of anything at the moment that would drive that explosive force," he said. "It will just be a melting, or a degrading, heating up of the fuel which will just crumble into a heap like what happened at Three Mile Island."

Richard Wakeford, of the Dalton Nuclear Institute at the University of Manchester, said in a statement that words like "apocalypse" and "catastrophe" were "utterly inappropriate" about the situation at Fukushima and could cause unnecessary panic.

Leaks from Fukushima have already spread some radiation from the plant, briefly raising levels in Tokyo to 10 times normal levels, but are far below the level of a catastrophic release that would pose a wide threat to human health, experts say.

Crick at UNSCEAR said that long-term exposure after Chernobyl for people living in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia was about 10 millisieverts, the equivalent of the radiation in one CT scan, a special type of x-ray. People pick up about 2.4 millisieverts a year in background radiation.

Thriving Metropolis or Ghost Town? Crisis Transforms Tokyo

People shop for food from almost empty shelves at a big-box supermarket in Tokyo March 16, 2011. [Source]

March 16, 2011

Reuters - As Japanese authorities struggled to avert disaster at an earthquake-battered nuclear complex 240 km (150 miles) to the north, parts of Tokyo resembled a ghost town.

Many stocked up on food and stayed indoors or simply left, transforming one of the world's biggest and densely populated cities into a shell of its usual self.

"Look, it's like Sunday -- no cars in town," said Kazushi Arisawa, a 62-year-old taxi driver as he waited for more than an hour outside an office tower where he usually finds customers within minutes. "I can't make money today."

Radiation in Tokyo has been negligible, briefly touching three times the normal rate Tuesday, smaller than a dental x-ray. Wednesday, winds over the Fukushima nuclear-power plant gusted out to sea, keeping levels close to normal.

But that does little to allay public anxiety about an ailing 40-year-old nuclear complex with three reactors in partial meltdown and a fourth with spent atomic fuel exposed to the atmosphere after last Friday's earthquake and tsunami.

"Radiation moves faster than we do," said Steven Swanson, a 43-year-old American who moved to Tokyo in December with his Japanese wife to help with her family business.

He is staying indoors but is tempted to leave.

"It's scary. It's a triple threat with the earthquake, tsunami and the nuclear radiation leaks. It makes you wonder what's next."

A number of major events have been canceled, including the World Figure Skating Championships, Japan Fashion Week and the Tokyo International Anime Fair whose organizers cited "extreme circumstances."

EMPTY RESTAURANTS, SHOPS

Some foreign bankers, flush with money, are fleeing fast, some on private jets. BNP Paribas, Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley were among banks whose staff have left since Friday, according to industry sources.

Thousands of people have inundated private jet companies with requests for evacuation flights, sending prices surging.

"I got a request yesterday to fly 14 people from Tokyo to Hong Kong ... they did not care about price," said Jackie Wu, chief operations officer at Hong Kong Jet, a newly established private jet subsidiary of China's HNA Group.

A chartered plane from Tokyo to Australia, one way, was $265,000, 20 percent higher than usual, he said.

Mike Walsh, chief of Asia Jet, said they had run three evacuation flights to Hong Kong from Tokyo by early Wednesday.

Electronics shops are selling out of small, portable Geiger counters that measure radiation. Strawberry Linux, a Tokyo-based company, is out of stock, said its owner, Masahiro Ochiai.

Some areas of Tokyo were hit by rolling blackouts and reduced train services as the nuclear plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co, struggled to make up for a drop in power capacity.

At Sony Corp's headquarters in Tokyo's Shinagawa district, only 120 staff of the usual 6,000 were working. Staff were told to stay at home as much as possible due to difficulties with train transportation, said Sony spokeswoman Mami Imada.

In Akasaka, normally packed with office workers, sushi restaurants and noodle shops, streets were quiet into the night when the area usually becomes a neon-lit entertainment district.

"Akasaka has been dead quiet since the quake. We should be thankful we are alive but if this continues, the economy will be a disaster," said Akihiro Sumitani, owner of a shop that sells kitchen utensils.

"I seriously worry how many shops can survive."

People stocked up food, milk and other supplies, emptying some shelves at convenience stores and supermarkets. Some residents towed suitcases. Thousands showed up at nearby airports without tickets, hoping to book flights out of Tokyo.

Anthony Blick, an expatriate in Tokyo working from home since the earthquake, said he would prefer to leave.

"I'm worried about the nuclear reactors in Fukushima. There's a lot of information out there but unfortunately a lot of it is conflicting. Ideally, I would like to get out of Japan but that isn't practical at the moment."

Many schools were closed, but one mother interviewed outside an open kindergarten said she preferred her children in school.

"I want them to do everything that we are allowed to do as long as it is safe," she said. "If I show them that I'm nervous, my children will get nervous."

Snapshot: Japan's Nuclear Crisis

March 16, 2011

Reuters - Following are main developments after a massive earthquake and tsunami devastated northeast Japan and crippled a nuclear power station, raising the risk of uncontrolled radiation.

- The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog says core damage at reactors 1, 2 and 3 of the plant is confirmed, but reactor vessels seem intact. Says the situation is "very serious."

- Top U.S. nuclear regulator says no water left in No. 4 reactor cooling pool, radiation levels extremely high.

- Nuclear power plant operator says it wants a military helicopter to try again to pour water onto a damaged reactor, after an earlier attempt was aborted.

- In that attempt, a helicopter was unable to drop water to cool the No.3 reactor, probably because of the high radiation, Kyodo news agency said, quoting the defense minister.

- Japan's nuclear safety agency says military will help pump water at the No.3 reactor at the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex in northeastern Japan, and into the spent fuel pool in No.4 reactor.

- Agency also says radiation levels outside the plant spiked around noon but fell back.

- Police will attempt to cool No.4 reactor's spent nuclear fuel pool using a water cannon, NHK TV says.

- Japan's top government spokesman says radiation levels around the complex are not at levels to cause an immediate health risk.

- Tokyo is safe for international travellers, the Japanese Red Cross says.

- Britain advises its citizens in Japan to consider leaving Tokyo and the area north of the capital

- There is no evidence of a significant spread of radiation from Japan's crippled nuclear plants, the World Health Organization says.

- Operator says it is unable to resume work cooling the reactors due to radiation risk. Workers ordered to leave the plant were allowed back in after radiation levels fall. Operator says there were 180 workers on site as of 0230 GMT.

- Fire breaks out at reactor No.4 a day after a blast blew a hole in the building housing spent fuel rods. White smoke seen from No.3 reactor most likely to be steam from the water that is being poured to cool the rods.

- No plan yet to extend evacuation zone near the facility, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo.

- Australia urges its citizens with non-essential roles to consider leaving Tokyo and the most damaged prefectures, and Turkey warns citizens against traveling to Japan. France urges nationals living in Tokyo to leave country or move south.

- Radiation levels in Tokyo were 10 times normal at one point, but not a threat to human health, officials said.

- Japan's benchmark Nikkei average closes 4.5 percent up on Wednesday after suffering its worst two-day rout since 1987. The index surged over 6 percent at one point.

- Tens of thousands of people are still missing since Friday's quake and tsunami. About 850,000 households in the north without electricity in near-freezing weather. Death toll is expected to exceed 10,000.

Millions without Food, Water, Ppower in Japan (Slide Show)
Japan's Evacuation Centers (Slide Show)