Geologist Predicts Major North American Earthquake Imminent

4.4 Earthquake Off Oregon Coast, Foreshock?

March 26, 2011

Modern Survival Blog - I found this latest earthquake to be interesting, 100 miles off the coast of California / Oregon, a magnitude 4.4.

The magnitude is of no particular interest, however it’s location is, at least to me… Given the recent very large earthquakes that have been shaking at the Pacific tectonic plate boundaries during the past year or so, the remaining ‘untouched’ region so far has been the west coast U.S (untouched – meaning a large earthquake).

While looking at the location of the past 5,000 earthquakes in the region shown in the map above, it is interesting that the recent magnitude 4.4 earthquake occurred in an area by itself, with no other apparent history of quakes there. In itself this is not alarming, but given the specific region with it’s very high concentration of historical earthquakes pulling and tugging at the Pacific plate boundary, the specific location of yesterday’s quake is exactly between two very active zones.

Could it be a precursor or fore-shock of the next big Pacific plate earthquake? Or is it just another anomaly. No one knows of course, but it did peak my curiosity.

The region is complicated in that on the left there is the Pacific plate, which is actually pulling away from the coast there. Towards the right, just off the coast of Oregon and northern California lies the Cascadia Subduction Zone, where the piece in-between itself and the Pacific plate (the Juan de Fuca plate) is actually diving down underneath the North American plate to the right.

This subduction zone is capable of producing magnitude 9+ earthquakes, and it’s historical timetable is due for another one.

Got your earthquake kit ready?

Tsunami Threat Could Catch Pacific Northwest Off Guard

March 26, 2011

AP - When the big one hits the Pacific Northwest, the best place to escape the wall of water moving at jetliner speed from 50 miles off the coast may be a City Hall on stilts.

Once the ground finishes two to four minutes of lurching and shaking, residents and tourists in Cannon Beach would flock to the refuge on concrete columns 14 feet above the waves racing beneath. They would ... if the refuge gets built. There's nothing like it from Northern California to British Columbia and, so far, no money for anything like it.

It's an example of how underprepared the West Coast is for an earthquake and tsunami on the scale of what happened in Japan.

Scientists say it's inevitable that an offshore seismic menace called the Cascadia Subduction Zone will one day unleash a megaquake. The last time it happened was 300 years ago when a magnitude-9 shaker spawned enormous ocean waves that slammed into the West Coast and damaged Japanese fishing villages.

Mindful of the risks of waves as high as 60 feet, communities in the Pacific Northwest have worked on their defenses, installing sirens to warn of dangerous waves, posting hazard signs to mark inundation zones, designating evacuation routes and holding evacuation drills.

Scientists in the Pacific Northwest hadn't understood the geology and the threat it poses until recent decades when they discovered evidence of big quakes near the coast over the last 10,000 years - about 20 the size of the March 11 quake in Japan.

By contrast, the Japanese have long paid close attention to quakes and tsunamis. Their written records from 1700 allowed North American scientists a few years ago to fix the timing of the last Pacific Northwest megaquake, right down to the hour it occurred. So the death and damage caused by this month's earthquake and tsunami in Japan were worrisome on the other side of the Pacific.

"We're not nearly as well prepared as the Japanese, and clearly they were overwhelmed," said Bill Steele, coordinator of the University of Washington's Seismology Laboratory. "It is a problem."

Elevated refuges are among the Japan-style responses to the tsunami threat that experts say helped to mitigate the destruction and death.

And these are just pieces in a giant puzzle for the Northwest in dealing with the aftermath of a disaster that could bring Katrina-style devastation to a region of 13 million people west of the Cascade Range.

In Cannon Beach, Jay Raskin is terrified at the prospect -- "terrified" is a word he uses three times in the first few minutes of an interview. The former city council member and mayor has proposed replacing the current City Hall, seismically unsound, with a two-story building on stilts to provide refuge to as many as 1,500 people. The second floor would house city offices. Atop that would be a terrace.

The idea is still conceptual, awaiting vetting by structural and geophysical engineers. That could add to the tentative $4 million price tag Raskin puts on it.

There are no current plans in California to build special tsunami-resistant structures, but some communities are looking at ways to herd residents to existing buildings perched on higher ground in the event of dangerous waves, said Rick Wilson, senior engineering geologist with the California Geological Survey.

In Washington state, emergency managers are working with coastal communities to develop local plans for elevated evacuation structures that could do double duty, such as steel-reinforced earthen berms 20 feet high that could support bleachers at a stadium.

"Right now, there's no funding for anything like this, through state and federal funding," said John Schelling of the Washington State Emergency Management.

He argues, though, that it's important to develop the plans for the day when money is available. That's particularly the case, he said, for places on the Pacific Northwest coast that don't have high ground close to the beach, such as the flats of southwest Washington's Long Beach peninsula.

Among the critics of such work is Patrick Corcoran, an Oregon State University extension worker who specializes in marine hazards and argues that the regional emphasis on geology and engineering misses the mark.

"This is a cultural, behavioral issue far more than an engineering issue," he said.

The message that has to be driven home for coastal residents, he said, is there are just a few keys to surviving a tsunami, including the importance of getting to higher ground and staying there, even if your family is scattered. It's also important to find a way to hoof it to higher ground - rather than trying to drive and dealing with gridlock -- while also designating someone on solid ground as the family contact point.

Governments, he said, can make it easier for people to survive tsunamis by creating shelters on high ground, and making sure paths uphill are clear of the invasive blackberry brambles that plague the coast.

In Cannon Beach, the 1,500 capacity of the proposed City Hall refuge is about the size of the town's permanent population. At the height of the tourist season, there are three to four times as many people. Most would have to rely on following an evacuation route to get above the waves - something locals would likely know well but could be difficult for tourists already panicked by the quake.

Raskin said his concern about earthquakes dates to his work as an architect in the San Francisco Bay area during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and argues that Cannon Beach has a responsibility to the tourists the town has invited to the coast.

Choking up in an interview, he said, "I don't want to be in a position to say that I didn't do enough."

Ring of Fire: Quake Predicted for California

March 17, 2011

Before It's News - Jim Berkland was on San Francisco local radio station KSFO 560 AM this morning with Brian Sussman and elaborated on his prediction. The Bay Area (San Francisco, San Jose, etc.) would get a 4.5 shaker, while Southern California would get a 6.0 quake. He thought the larger quake would happen near where the massive school of fish ran aground in Redondo Beach, California.

He has had many reports of animals behaving strangely and mentioned that one of his methods is to track the number of missing pet classified ads in the local paper. Cats in particular go missing right before earthquakes, the theory being their sense of direction is affected by a change in the magnetic field. Apparently, the theory works.

Jim Berkland has a track record of predicting earthquakes like the 1989 Loma Prieta shaker in San Francisco for the World Series. Here's a photo from the Gilroy paper one day in advance making his prediction:

Now, according to Berkland, we're due for another one. How does he know? The gravitational pull of the moon is at it's strongest in many years, with the "Super Moon", caused by the closest approach of the moon. Also, there have been fish in massive numbers washing up on the beaches of California, caused by disruptions in the magnetic field of the earth.

This is a good time to get prepared, if you are in California. Stock up on food, water and fuel for generators (if you have one). Even if the earthquake doesn't come to pass, being prepared is always a good idea.

Everett, Washington: Land Crack Appears, Neighborhood is Sinking

March 18, 2011

Sott.net - People living in the Valley View neighborhood of southeast Everett are waiting and watching. A two story house on their block is tilted at a 20 degree angle and could collapse at any moment.

A crack in the earth that first appeared six weeks ago is now threatening about four homes. The City of Everett has "red tagged" the home on Burl which is collapsing. That means no one is allowed near the property.

A "yellow tag" was posted on two other properties where the land is giving way.

A surface slide in the area of Rob and Margaret Lund's house caused their deck and cement patio to completely collapse.

"There is nothing to stop this from happening again and again," said Rob Lund.

Recent heavy rains has caused the sliding to accelerate in the neighborhood. Neighbors said the problem appears to be getting much worse.

"If that house goes, the land will go with it," said Steve Mosman, who lives right next door to the collapsing home. "It would pull our land down with it. We just don't know what is going to happen."

The City of Everett is monitoring the problem daily but has no authority to re-enforce private property. City engineers have recommended the homeowner demolish the collapsing home.

Chunk of California Coastal Highway Falls into Pacific Ocean, Blocks Road to Big Sur; No Injuries

The Monterey Times Herald reports that CHP said the highway could be closed “potentially several days if not longer. No injuries were reported.

March 17, 2011

AP - Engineers on Thursday were working to figure out when they’ll be able to reopen a stretch of California coastal highway that collapsed into the ocean, blocking traffic to the scenic Big Sur region. Authorities have closed the two-lane road to traffic indefinitely.

Authorities say that the closure came after 40-foot stretch of the highway slid down a hillside shortly after 5 p.m. in an area called Hurricane Point following several days of heavy rains. The entire southbound lane is gone, and the soil under the northbound lane also was giving way.


The southbound lane of Highway 1 is shown after sliding down the hillside on Wednesday, March 16, 2011 in Big Sur, Calif.

No one was injured in the slide, the California Highway Patrol said.

The collapse occurred south of Carmel near Rocky Creek Bridge, one of the iconic arch bridges that make the stretch of roadway, also known as the Pacific Coast Highway, one of the country’s best known scenic drives.

California Department of Transportation officials told The Monterey Herald they would know closer to the end of Thursday when the road would be reopened.

The closure comes as spring tourist season is about to get under way.

“There is too much going down here to allow an extended closure,” Alan Perlmutter told the newspaper.

Perlmutter is a partner in the Big Sur River Inn, one of the many inns and lodges that depend on the dollars of tourists drawn to dramatic coastal vistas, where forested mountainsides plunge into blue seas.

Other inns and restaurants reported a mix of no-shows and guests who were forced to stay longer because of the blocked road.

The best alternate route to Big Sur from the north would require drivers to take Highway 101 inland through the Salinas Valley and drive over a steep, winding mountain road to the coast, adding at least an hour to the trip.