Will Israel Attack Iran By Mid 2013?

If Obama Gets Second Term, Israel's January Attack on Iran Looms Large

September 30, 2012

Forbes - If the American arms dealer I spoke with on September 29 is right, Obama has bigger things to worry about than the debate or the election — which is increasingly looking like it will lead him to a second term.

Obama’s biggest concern could be how the U.S. will respond to the repercussions of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities this coming January. My source — who has been in contact with officials in Israel, Washington, and Saudi Arabia recently, said that Israel had been planning the attack for June; however, my source said that in March figures in Washington asked Israel to wait until after the November election and Israel agreed.

The plan of attack is fairly straightforward. Israel would launch a missile strike on Iran’s nuclear sites using so-called bunker buster bombs provided by the U.S. Saudi Arabia would clear its airspace for the Israeli attack.

Iran has seeded Southern Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank with millions of missiles. And Iran’s hope is to use them to strike Israel in retaliation. To prevent that, my source says that the Israeli army would send tanks to take over those territories before those missiles could be fired.

One unknown since February is a result of the change in leadership in Egypt. Israel is not certain whether Egypt will also launch missiles into Israel via the Sinai peninsula. But if Israel believes that threat is likely, it could also move troops to block such strikes.

Meanwhile, Obama is increasingly appearing to gain momentum for re-election as people get more confident about the economy and thanks in part to Romney’s less-than-stellar political skills — his “47%” video is not helping. According to AP, Romney must reverse Obama’s growing lead in nine battleground states in order to have a shot at the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

AP believes that if the election were held on September 30, Obama would win at least 271 electoral votes — “with likely victories in crucial Ohio and Iowa along with 19 other states and the District of Columbia. Romney would win 23 states for a total of 206.”

The vote that counts is November 6.

And if Israel indeed launches its attack in January, it would be logical to expect that to happen after January 20 when the U.S. president is inaugurated. After all, if Israel is going to get U.S. support for such an attack, it may want to do so during a time when our government is functioning as fully as possible.

Not everyone agrees with the January timing of such an attack. But Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, implied in his September 27 speech at the UN that “Israel would attack Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities if they were allowed to process potential weapons-grade material beyond his red line,” according to Reuters.

Some Israeli newspapers are guessing that Israel will strike Iran later in 2013. According to Reuters, those newspapers include Maariv and Yedioth Ahronoth, that believe Israel will attack Iran in “spring 2013″ because that’s when they think Netanyahu believes Iran will have made enough “20 percent-enriched uranium for a first bomb, if purified further.”

But Reuters notes that two other newspapers — Haaretz and pro-government Israel Hayom — are estimating a mid-2013 attack.

Whoever is president in January will have to deal with the unpredictable worldwide reaction to an Israeli strike — if it happens. For example, Would Iran involve the rest of the world by sending missiles to strike U.S. interests – such as our Middle Eastern embassies? Would Iran cut off the flow of oil out of the Middle East? Will Russia and China line up behind Iran and take positions against the U.S.? Will Israel be able to withstand Iran’s efforts to retaliate?

This cluster of issues is so important that it would make a good debate topic on Wednesday. For example, it is worth considering the scenario that Iran would attack U.S. interests and cut off the flow of oil from the Middle East.

Moreover, Russia and China may well help supply arms to Iran for its attacks. And while Israel may be able to defend itself from rocket attacks – it is unclear whether it will have enough ground forces in the event that Egypt gets in on the attack.

I would like to hear how the candidates would propose that the U.S. prepare for such outcomes and what policies they would implement if they happened.

Because if these rumors are realized, an Israeli attack on Iran would be the biggest issue our President will face in 2013 – and possibly beyond.