After Iran Test-fired a New Ballistic Missile, Trump Imposed Sanctions and Pence Warned Iran Not to Test Trump's Resolve

"If Iran were to cease compliance with the nuclear agreement and restart full-scale enrichment of nuclear fuel, it would risk uniting Europe, Russia and China with the U.S. in pressing for a 'snapback' of sanctions. The budget would then unravel and the economy could suffer." [Source]

February 4, 2017

The Independent - Iran is testing its missile and radar systems after Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Tehran for a recent ballistic missile test.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards website said the aim of the military exercise was to “showcase the power of Iran’s revolution and to dismiss the sanctions”.

Home-made missile systems, radars, command and control centres, and cyber warfare systems will all be tested in the drill, according to Iranian state news agencies.

Mr Trump’s administration sanctioned 13 individuals and 12 entities related to the country’s missile programme and Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s National Security Advisor, said the US was putting Iran on notice over its “destabilising activity”.

US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said he was not considering raising the number of forces in the Middle East to address Iran’s “misbehaviour” but warned the world would not ignore the activities.

Last week Iran confirmed it had test-fired a new ballistic missile but said it did not breach the nuclear agreement it signed with other world powers.

A UN resolution urges Tehran refrain from work on missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons and Iran is adamant it has complied with this.

The country has test-fired several missiles since the deal but this was the first since Mr Trump entered the White House.

February 5, 2017

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TIMES - US Vice-President Mike Pence issued a warning to Iran on Sunday not to "test the resolve" of new US President Donald Trump. The vice-president's comments, made in an interview with ABC News, come in the wake of sanctions imposed on Tehran by Washington after a ballistic missile test.

Days after the sanctions were imposed, it was reported that further testing was due to be carried out by Iran. Though US-Iranian relations have long been problematic, they have further deteriorated as Trump signed an executive order to ban travel from seven Muslim-majority countries – including Iran – to the US.

On Sunday Pence joined a growing number of critics within the new administration of Iran and the previous President's handling of relations.

"The Iranians got a deal from the international community that, again, the president and I and our administration think was a terrible deal," Pence said.

"Iran would do well to look at the calendar and realise there's a new president in the Oval Office,"  he added. "And Iran would do well not to test the resolve of this new president."

The warnings echo those expressed by White House National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, last week, who said: "President Trump has severely criticised the various agreements reached between Iran and the Obama Administration, as well as the United Nations – as being weak and ineffective."

Press Secretary Sean Spicer also said the new administration was not prepared to "sit by and not act on their [Iran's] actions".

The tough talk by Trump's team has led to speculation that the US may not honour terms negotiated between world powers and former president Barack Obama that would see Iran kerb its nuclear programme in exchange for relief from international sanctions.

Trump said in response to Iran's perceived "belligerence" that "nothing is off the table." 

February 6, 2017

• The 2015 deal has been a boon to Iranian economy, oil output
• Tehran’s hardliners don’t appear to be pressing to scrap deal

BLOOMBERG - Since the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Tehran over a ballistic missile test Friday, Iran’s conservative media has railed against the government for being too soft, the military has tested another projectile, and officials have generally thumbed their noses at a White House warning that they were now “on notice.”

What hasn’t happened, however, is as important: no official has threatened to abandon the nuclear deal signed in 2015 under the previous U.S. administration of President Barack Obama.

On Monday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry termed some recent U.S. statements as “antagonistic” and having “a threatening tone,” but it also advised against rushing to conclusions about the government of Donald Trump.

Iran seeks “a better evaluation of the new U.S. administration,” ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi said in Tehran. “We still need to wait and not make hasty comments.”

That’s in part because the new sanctions are largely symbolic and in line with Obama’s policy. It’s also a sign of how many reasons Iran has to stick with the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and ensure that if it must collapse, Washington -- not Tehran -- takes the blame.

“For the moment they have support of the international community and they see continuation of the JCPOA as a strength,” said Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “The best position for the Iranians is exactly where they are.”

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said Monday that the missile testing didn’t violate the nuclear deal, and that view has been conveyed to the U.S., the RIA Novosti news agency reported.

Such relative stoicism from a famously prickly regime may not last. The limited U.S. measures and tit-for-tat Iranian response may represent just the start of a deliberate cycle of escalation, said Tabrizi. The “on notice” warning from National Security Adviser Michael Flynn was followed on Sunday by a pledge from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to assemble “a partnership against Iran’s defiant aggression.”

Still, for now even conservatives hammering President Hassan Rouhani ahead of elections in May -- for signing the deal in the first place and then for failing to respond to the new U.S. administration with sufficient force -- don’t appear to be pressing to scrap the agreement.

Trump “is the best opportunity for us, because he will show the essence of the U.S. to the world and this is where we can prove our rightfulness,” Alireza Zakani, a former legislator and opponent of Rouhani, said in an interview with the Fars news agency on Saturday.

Iran expected the new administration to start piling on pressure in non-nuclear areas such as missile tests and human rights to provoke the regime into harsh retaliation, so “it could be held responsible for the failure” of the nuclear deal, said Amirali Abolfath, an independent Tehran-based analyst. “So far, Iran has been rational.”


Another reason for Iran to avoid collapsing the deal is financial. Although Trump’s Twitter claims that Iran had been “on its last legs” before the nuclear agreement allegedly showered Iran with $150 billion of unfrozen funds are inaccurate on both counts, the agreement has been a success for the country’s economy.

Iran’s oil production has bounced back to pre-sanctions levels. In addition, although foreign investment hasn’t yet come close to the hoped-for $30 billion to $50 billion per year, it’s increased by 42 percent since the agreement took effect, the government said in January.



The government is counting on those flows to support the budget for the coming fiscal year, which begins in March. Government expenditure will rise by 11 percent from last year and investment by 12 percent, according to the budget, which assumes economic growth of 7.7 percent for the year.

If Iran were to cease compliance with the agreement and restart full-scale enrichment of nuclear fuel, it would risk uniting Europe, Russia and China with the U.S. in pressing for a “snapback” of sanctions. The budget would then unravel and the economy could suffer.

Even minor sanctions could poison the atmosphere for investments, said Cyrus Razzaghi, president of Ara Enterprise, a Tehran-based business consultancy. “The psychological impact on foreign investors can’t be ignored,” he said, noting that some Asian and European clients had already held back on investment plans as they waited to find out what policies the Trump administration would pursue toward Iran.

Still, the effects of the latest sanctions are likely to be limited, said Razzaghi. Major international banks never restarted business with Iran. Meanwhile, any U.S. attempt to target foreign companies for doing business in Iran more widely would put the U.S. in breach of the nuclear agreement, he said. 

In the meantime, the diplomatic benefits of the deal are also important to the Iranian regime, which is anxious to play a role with Russia, the U.S. and others in resolving the Syrian conflict. That gives Iranian leaders a further reason to moderate their responses, said Sanam Vakil, an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, also known as Chatham House, in London.

The nature of the U.S.-Iranian relationship has clearly snapped back already from one of cautious engagement under Obama to, at best, containment under Trump, Vakil said. “Anything is possible now,” she said. “I feel we have gone back in time.”

Related:

A Short History of the Alliance Between Syria and Iran

"The strategy for the Iraq war is now making itself known. By using 9/11 as a pretext to invade Afghanistan, Iran is flanked on the east side. By using the Desert Storm protocols and UN Resolution 1441, among others, the excuse to invade and occupy Iraq is brought forward because Saddam is not disarming, we are told. By taking Iraq, the U.S. forces then flank Iran to the West. Having troops stationed in Turkey is a key part of this plan, for then Iran is flanked to the North, which is why so much pressure is being applied to Turkey to allow our troops there. Although we cannot be sure which incidents will be used to bring war with Iran, we can be sure something will transpire to make is necessary to invade Iran, and most likely Syria would be next. Syria is also isolated in all directions. With Israel the main benefactor in the Middle East, this strategy will totally rearrange the Middle Eastern landscape and set the stage for the appointment of the 10 puppet kings of Revelation chapter 17, which have no 'kingdom yet' but will with the beast for 42 months." - Stewart C. Best, March 2003, The Strategy for Taking the Middle East