Swine Flu & Other Pandemics

CDC: Swine Flu Linked to 11 More Child Deaths

October 18, 2009

AP — Swine flu is causing unprecedented illness for so early in the fall — including a worrisome count of child deaths — and the government warned Friday that vaccine supplies will be even more scarce than expected through this month.

Federal health officials said 11 more children have died in the past week because of the virus.

Manufacturer delays mean 28 million to 30 million doses, at most, will be divided around the country by the end of the month, not the 40 million-plus that states had been expecting. The new count from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention means anxiously awaited flu-shot clinics in some parts of the country may have to be postponed.

It also delays efforts to blunt increasing infections. Overall, what CDC calls the 2009 H1N1 flu is causing widespread disease in 41 states, and about 6% of all doctor visits are for flu-like illness — levels not normally seen until much later in the fall.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says about half of the child deaths since September have been among teenagers.

And overall for the country, deaths from pneumonia and flu-like illnesses have passed what CDC considers an epidemic level.

The CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat (SHU'-kit) says, "These are very sobering statistics."

This new strain is different from regular winter flu because it strikes the young far more than the old, and child deaths are drawing particular attention. Eighty-six children have died of swine flu in the U.S. since it burst on the scene last spring — 43 of those deaths reported in September and early October alone, said CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat.

That's a startling number because in some past winters, the CDC has counted 40 or 50 child deaths for the entire flu season, she said, and no one knows how long this swine flu outbreak will last. Half of those early fall child deaths are among teenagers, also surprising as preschoolers are thought to be most vulnerable...

New Flu Can Kill Fast, Researchers Agree

Editor's Note: After administering millions of doses of the "live virus" nasal spray two weeks ahead of schedule, there is an increase in the number of cases; and, at the same time, the government "delays" delivery of some swine flu vaccines. Coincidentally, the mainstream media fear-mongering shifts into high gear.

October 16, 2009

Reuters - The new H1N1 flu is "strikingly different" from seasonal influenza, killing much younger people than ordinary flu and often killing them very fast, World Health Organization officials said on Friday.

A review of studies done during the seven months the virus has been circulating shows it is usually mild, but can cause unusual and severe symptoms in an unlucky few, according to a WHO-sponsored meeting in Washington this week.

"Participants who have managed such cases agreed that the clinical picture in severe cases is strikingly different from the disease pattern seen during epidemics of seasonal influenza," WHO's Dr. Nikki Shindo told the meeting.

Swine flu was declared a pandemic in June and has been circulating globally. WHO stopped trying to count cases, as there are nowhere near enough tests to formally diagnose everyone who gets sick.

Separately on Friday, Dr. Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said 86 U.S. children had died of swine flu, most in the 5- to 17-year old age group that normally escapes serious bouts with flu.

"In severe cases, patients generally begin to deteriorate around three to five days after symptom onset. Deterioration is rapid, with many patients progressing to respiratory failure within 24 hours, requiring immediate admission to an intensive care unit," Shindo said.

While most such patients need to be put on ventilators right away, some are not helped by this treatment, Shindo noted.

In some places, she said, emergency rooms have been overwhelmed with patients, many requiring critical care.

The good news is that quick treatment with the antiviral drugs oseltamivir, made by Roche AG under the brand name Tamiflu, and zanamivir, made by GlaxoSmithKline as Relenza, helps a great deal, she said.

Usually influenza is a disease of the upper respiratory tract, affecting the nose and throat. But H1N1 goes deeper, into the lungs.

"This virus really likes the lower respiratory tract. That means this virus is very likely to cause viral pneumonia compared to seasonal influenza," Shindo told a news conference.

Among the doctors speaking to the WHO meeting was Dr. Anand Kumar of St. Boniface Hospital in Winnipeg, Manitoba, who reported swine flu's effects in the Journal of the American Medical Association this week.

"At one point, 50 percent of the available ICU (intensive care unit) beds in the entire city were filled with H1N1 patients," Kumar said in a telephone interview. "We basically maxed out our capacity.

Shindo said WHO was struggling to understand what the risk factors are for a serious bout with swine flu.

"Although the exact role of obesity is poorly understood at present, obesity and especially morbid obesity have been present in a large portion of severe and fatal cases," Shindo said. "Obesity has not been recognized as a risk factor in either past pandemics or seasonal influenza."

Swine Flu Vaccines Delayed, CDC Says

October 16, 2009

Reuters — Delivery of some swine flu vaccines has been delayed because companies cannot make it as fast as they had hoped, just as the virus has really started to spread, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday.

The CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat said that while 40 million doses had been anticipated for the end of October, only about 28 to 30 million doses would be available.

"Yields for vaccine are lower than would be hoped," Schuchat said in a telephone briefing. "We unfortunately won't have as much at the end of this month as we had hoped to."

She also said deaths from H1N1 swine flu were above the epidemic threshold in some U.S. cities and states. H1N1 flu activity was widespread in 41 states, she said.

"It is unprecedented for this time of year to have the whole country having such high levels of activity," Schuchat said.

"There are now a total of 86 children under 18 who have died from the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus," she added. Many had died in recent weeks and the number was now higher than the usual number of child deaths in an entire flu season.

"These are very sobering statistics ... 43 deaths in one month is a lot," Schuchat said. "Some of these children have been totally healthy."

Older children were hardest hit, she said, with 16 deaths among 5- to 11-year-olds and 19 deaths in 12- to 17-year-olds.

The new virus, which emerged in March and was declared a pandemic in June, does not seem any deadlier than seasonal influenza. But it attacks a different age group -- older children and young adults, unlike seasonal flu, which affects mostly elderly people and kills up to 36,000 in a normal year.

And because hardly anyone has immunity, the H1N1 virus may infect far more people than seasonal flu does in a single season.

Schuchat said 15 percent to 20 percent of patients with H1N1 who needed to be hospitalized were requiring intensive care.

"Influenza is widespread in the country and illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths continue to increase," she said.

The U.S. government has opted to roll out seasonal flu vaccine and H1N1 vaccines as they become available, which the CDC has said could make for a bumpy vaccination plan.

People need both vaccines to be protected from all the circulating viruses, although Schuchat says virtually all cases of influenza are due to the new H1N1 virus.

As of Wednesday, 11.4 million doses of H1N1 vaccine were available and 8 million had been ordered by states for distribution.

The U.S. government has ordered both types of flu vaccine from five companies: Sanofi-Aventis SA, CSL Ltd, Novartis AG, GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca unit MedImmune.

Schuchat said 82 million doses of seasonal flu vaccine had been distributed, with a total of 114 million doses ordered. On Thursday CVS Caremark Corp said it would cut short its flu-shot clinics due to delivery delays.

"This is how influenza vaccine production often goes," Schuchat said. She said there should be widespread availability by November and advised people who wanted a vaccine but were having trouble finding one to keep trying.

Drugmakers, Doctors Rake in Billions Battling H1N1 Flu

October 14, 2009

Americans are still debating whether to roll up their sleeves for a swine flu shot, but companies have already figured it out: vaccines are good for business.

ABC News - Drug companies have sold $1.5 billion worth of swine flu shots, in addition to the $1 billion for seasonal flu they booked earlier this year. These inoculations are part of a much wider and rapidly growing $20 billion global vaccine market.

"The vaccine market is booming," says Bruce Carlson, spokesperson at market research firm Kalorama, which publishes an annual survey of the vaccine industry. "It's an enormous growth area for pharmaceuticals at a time when other areas are not doing so well," he says, noting that the pipeline for more traditional blockbuster drugs such as Lipitor and Nexium has thinned.

As always with pandemic flus, taxpayers are footing the $1.5 billion check for the 250 million swine flu vaccines that the government has ordered so far and will be distributing free to doctors, pharmacies and schools. In addition, Congress has set aside more than $10 billion this year to research flu viruses, monitor H1N1's progress and educate the public about prevention.

Drugmakers pocket most of the revenues from flu sales, with Sanofi-Pasteur, Glaxo Smith Kline and Novartis cornering most of the market.