Wake Up to the Truth or Join the Herd and Be Willingly Ignorant

How to Help Your Friends and Family See the Truth

Get ahead of the storm or be caught up in the tidal wave -- the Western world is in massive decline and the consequences of being unprepared are drastic.

December 20, 2010

Sovereign Man - One of my favorite movies is the Matrix. I remember when it came out over 11-years ago, my best friend went to go see it. He called me immediately afterward and said, “I just saw the Matrix. You need to stop whatever you’re doing and come see this movie with me right now.”

Sure enough, the movie was spectacular… and if you haven’t seen it, you should check it out. The action sequences and special effects were mind-blowing for that era of filmmaking, but what really made this movie timelessly brilliant was its philosophy.

In the movie, the main character ‘Neo’ recognizes that the world he’s living in is based on lies and misdirection. He know’s that something is wrong, but he’s not exactly sure what, or why.

Neo is given a choice. On one hand, he can find out the truth, no matter how ugly it may be -- this is represented by a red pill. On the other hand, he can go back to blissful ignorance, which is represented by a blue pill.

He chooses the red pill… and the true nature of the real world isn’t like anything he had imagined.

Seeking out the truth is a scary proposition for most people; finding out that many of our core institutions and beliefs are built on a mountain of lies is unsettling, and it goes against basic human instincts like acceptance and security.

Choosing to ignore the truth, however, is like going up against a force of nature. You might be able to sustain a city under sea level or at the foot of a rumbling volcano for a while… but at some point, mother nature is going to wash everything away with one awesome display of power.

Similarly, the truth can be kept at bay for a very long time. Politicians and institutions can pass off their lies and corruption as reality for decades, centuries if necessary. But like a great storm, the truth will eventually surface and wash away their fraud.

People who maintain an open mind and choose to seek out the truth early can get ahead of the storm. People who refuse to acknowledge the obvious facts around them will get caught up in the tidal wave.

I say ‘obvious facts’ because there are so many clear signs that our political establishment and financial system are based on fraud… from the ponzi scheme debt levels of western governments to their farcical elections to the mindless distractions that continually dribble out of the mainstream media.

Many people are waking up to this reality every day, but so many more refuse to see the truth; they’d rather carry on in their blissfully ignorant world instead of prepare to survive and thrive in a bold new future.

I’ve run into this myself many, many times… and I’ll bet you have too; talking to friends and family about the important issues that will change our future can be like talking to a potted plant.

My friend Porter Stansberry has spent a lot of time and energy putting together a comprehensive video that really spells out the truth in its simplest terms -- that the western world is in massive decline, and that the consequences of being unprepared are drastic.

Hell, I’d say Porter breaks it down like baby food, and I think it’s the perfect video for anyone looking for a very well-grounded analysis of the economic problems facing the world.

The video is long -- about an hour -- and it’s controversial. But I encourage you to check it out. Click here to see it.

More importantly, I encourage you to forward this email to your friends and family in the hopes that they too might watch the video and see the truth for themselves. Besides, it just might make those upcoming holiday dinner discussions a bit more interesting…

Normalcy Bias - Are You Prepared for Unexpected Events?

December 13, 2010

The Hickory Hound - The Normalcy Bias refers to an extreme mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster and, on a larger scale, the failure of the government to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred that it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation. (Source: Wikipedia)

Possible causes

The normalcy bias may be caused in part by the way the brain processes new data. Research suggests that even when the brain is calm, it takes 8–10 seconds to process new information. Stress slows the process, and when the brain cannot find an acceptable response to a situation, it fixates on a single solution that may or may not be correct. An evolutionary reason for this response could be that paralysis gives an animal a better chance of surviving an attack; predators are less likely to eat prey that isn't struggling.

Effects

The normalcy bias often results in unnecessary deaths in disaster situations. The lack of preparation for disasters often leads to inadequate shelter, supplies, and evacuation plans. Even when all these things are in place, individuals with a normalcy bias often refuse to leave their homes. Studies have shown that more than 70% of people check with others before deciding to evacuate.

The normalcy bias also causes people to drastically underestimate the effects of the disaster. Therefore, they think that everything will be all right, while information from the radio, television, or neighbors gives them reason to believe there is a risk. This creates a cognitive dissonance that they then must work to eliminate. Some manage to eliminate it by refusing to believe new warnings coming in and refusing to evacuate (maintaining the normalcy bias), while others eliminate the dissonance by escaping the danger. The possibility that some may refuse to evacuate causes significant problems in disaster planning.

Prevention

The negative effects can be combated through the four stages of disaster response:

1. Preparation, including publicly acknowledging the possibility of disaster and forming contingency plans


2. Warning, including issuing clear, unambiguous, and frequent warnings and helping the public to understand and believe them


3. Impact, the stage at which the contingency plans take effect and emergency services, rescue teams, and disaster relief teams work in tandem


4. Aftermath, or reestablishing equilibrium after the fact by providing supplies and aid to those in need

The Black Swan Theory or "Theory of Black Swan Events" was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

1. The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology


2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to their very nature of small probabilities)


3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.

The Ostrich Effect or “Normalcy Bias” Part 1 - The Almighty Dollar - Mark Birmingham

Everyone on the Titanic thought the ship was “unsinkable.” In a matter of a few hours, they watched it sink.

One man warned of an attack on Pearl Harbor, but most thought that was “unthinkable,” until December 7, 1941.

A few perceptive men warned of dangerous investment leveraging practices, before the stock market crash of 1929.

100,000 Jews left Germany before their 450,000 cultured, intelligent, Jewish countrymen were trapped by Nazi insanity. They thought the Nazi movement would pass without real consequence...

The Ostrich Effect or “Normalcy Bias” Part 2 - The Almighty Dollar - Mark Birmingham

If the dollar is dethroned as the world’s reserve currency, which now seems inevitable to those willing to look for evidence, gasoline prices will double over night and a series of events that might include a much deeper global recession. With a large spike in oil prices comes more expensive goods, especially food. This may be what survivalists have been preparing for. It’s the “speeding train” referred to in The Ostrich Effect Part 1.

Naturally, we can’t imagine such madness occurring in the most powerful and affluent nation on the planet (a little “normalcy bias” perhaps?). But when 46 state governments face crippling deficits for 2011, and every graph you dare to look at is shaped like a “hockey stick,” blatantly illustrating the over extension of credit, debt and commensurate rise in commodity prices, it begs the question, “how much more evidence do you need?”

We, as a nation, are in the grip of a “normalcy bias,” which is an under-estimation of the effects of factual evidence.

The Hound: Has the government or the mainstream media been preparing for harsh economic realities, such as those seen in the immediate aftermath of the stock market crash of October 29, 1929. Why does our government and media continue to push the notion that things are improving. Does this not harm us? Does this not fit right into this idea of the "Normalcy Bias?"

I think that it is very important that we practice Situational Awareness. Situation Awareness (SA) involves being aware of what is happening around you to understand how information, events, and your own actions will impact your goals and objectives, both now and in the near future. Having complete, accurate and up-to-the-minute SA is essential where technological and situational complexity on the human decision-maker are a concern.

Has our government been giving us the information (honest data) that we need to properly operate our personal lives related to the financial crisis we are in? We are told that they don't want people to panic, but better to agitate people early in the process of preparation, than to have people be hysterical at or close to the point of impact during a critical event. We saw this on 9/11/2001 and when Katrina hit New Orleans. The calmer people are, the better their chance to survive a catastrophic event.

All I am getting at is that it is a good time to get prepared, because the dynamics of the economy don't look good. Be prepared to help yourself and your family in a time of crisis, and then you will be able to help others. Be a part of the solution, not the problem!