Hurricane Irene Could Turn 2011 into the Year with the Most Billion-dollar Disasters

Hurricane Irene Will Make 2011 a Record Disaster Year

August 27, 2011

Live Science - Hurricane Irene is very likely to be the 10th billion-dollar disaster of 2011, breaking 2008's record for number of billion-dollar disasters a year, according to preliminary estimates.

Between the summer floods, tornados, blizzards and drought, 2011 had already racked up nine natural disasters that cost at least $1 billion each, tying 2008's record. If damage estimates hold, Irene would make 2011 a record-breaker.

No one knows what the final toll of Irene will be, but estimates were high as the hurricane churned toward the Carolinas on Friday (Aug. 26) as a Category 2 storm with winds of up to 105 miles per hour (169 kilometers per hour). By 5:00 p.m. ET on Friday, the National Weather Service reported that winds were picking up speed along the North Carolina coast. Hurricane-force winds are expected in that region overnight Friday, with hurricane conditions arriving along the mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday afternoon.

The news agency Bloomberg reported Thursday (Aug. 25) that risk assessor Kinetic Analysis Corp. had estimated that Irene may cause $13.9 billion in insured losses and $20 billion in total economic losses when factors such as lost work hours and disruption of shipping are factored in.

Meanwhile, Roger Pielke, a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado, Boulder, wrote on his blog, "it does seem safe to say [Irene's] effects will be widespread and the damage total considerable."

Pielke looked up damage totals from previous storms that followed Irene's track and found inflation-adjusted damage estimates ranging from about $4.9 billion (Storm 8, 1933) to about $46.2 billion (New England storm, 1938). But none of the past storms are good analogues for Irene, Pielke wrote.

"We should expect to see damage along the entire eastern seaboard," Pielke wrote, "as well as a considerable amount of damage from inland flooding (not included in these numbers.)"

Escalating costs of hurricanes

If storms seem more expensive in recent decades, they are. But that's not because storms are making landfall more often or becoming more severe. Rather, a growing population, more buildings along coastlines and a big economy mean that storm disruptions are more costly.

In a 2008 paper published in the journal Natural Hazards, Pielke and colleagues compared hurricane damage from 1900 to 2005, taking into account changes in wealth, inflation, population growth and coastal development. Holding those factors steady, the researchers found that there was no increasing trend of greater damage attributable to the storms themselves over the 20th century.

In other words, there's just more stuff in the way to get damaged, making hurricanes today more costly than in the past.

By the researchers' reckoning, the most damaging single storm was the 1926 Great Miami, which would have cost as much as $157 billion in 2005 dollars. The storm was a Category 4 storm that roared onshore with winds of up to 125 mph (201 kph). After devastating southern Florida, the storm made a second landfall near Mobile, Ala.

Preventing damage

If you're in the path of the storm, experts recommend boarding up windows and taking valuables along in case of evacuation. Damage by Irene may be reduced by as much as a quarter if people follow these steps, said Cecilia Rokusek, a project manager at the Institute for Disaster and Emergency Preparedness at Nova Southeastern University in Florida. [Hurricane Evacuations: Why Some Won't Go]

But Rokusek urged hurricane-threatened residents to keep their priorities straight.

"The most important thing in a disaster is to save your life," she told LiveScience. "The material things can always be replaced."

Previous 2011 disasters

Pre-Irene, economic damage from natural disasters in the U.S. exceeded $35 billion this year, according to a National Climatic Data Center report released in August 2011. Those disasters were:

• Upper Midwest flooding (summer): At least $2 billion of damage as of mid-August
• Mississippi River flooding (spring and summer): $2 billion to $4 billion in damage
• Drought, heat wave and wildfires in the Southern Plains and Southwest (spring and summer): Over $5 billion in damage
• Tornadoes (May 22-27): At least $7 billion in damage in central and southern states, including the tornado that struck Joplin, Mo., killing 141
• Tornados (April 25-30): At least $9 billion in damage in central and southern states
• Tornadoes (April 14-16): More than $2 billion in damage in central and southern states
• Tornadoes (April 8-11): Losses exceeding $2.2 billion in central and southern states
• Tornadoes (April 4-5): More than $2.3 billion in damage in central and southern states
• Groundhog Day Blizzard: $2 billion in damage after a massive winter storm dumped snow across the central, eastern and northeastern sections of the country.

Hurricane History Facts

How often do major hurricanes hit the US?

On average, two major hurricane (category 3-5) strike every three years; in all categories, about five hurricanes make landfall every three years. On average, a hurricane category 4 or higher only strikes once every six years. 2004 has been an anomaly.

What was the busiest hurricane season on record in the Atlantic?

In 1995, 11 hurricanes were recorded in the Atlantic. Named storms got all the way up to Hurricane Tanya. Allison, Dean, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Opal, and Roxanne all made landfall in the US.

In the 20th century, how many hurricanes hit the US?

158 hurricanes hit the US from all categories in the 20th century; 64 of these were major hurricanes, categories 3-5. Florida had the most landfalls at 57, with the majority of these being in the northwest and southeast. Texas came in second with 36, and Louisiana and North Carolina tie for third at 25 a piece.

What is the busiest month in the US for major hurricane hits?

By far, September is the busiest month: 36 of the 64 major hurricanes hit in September. The next busiest month the August, with only 15.

Top Ten Hurricanes to Hit the United States

1. The Great Labor Day Storm (1935) - Florida
One of just three Category 5 Hurricanes to make landfall in the US, the Great Labor Day Storm had a minimum pressure of 892 millibars (26.35 inches). It caused 423 deaths in Florida. It also was notable for providing the setting for the Humphrey Bogart - Lauren Bacall movie, Key Largo.

2. Hurricane Katrina (2005) - Louisiana and Mississippi
Katrina had a minimum pressure of 904 millibars (26.64 inches), making it the second most intense storm to hit the US, as well as the most costly, and the third deadliest hurricane in U.S. history.

3. Hurricane Camille (1969) - Mississippi, SE Louisiana
This Category 5 hurricane was the second most intense hurricane ever to hit the United States, with a minimum pressure of 909 millibars (26.84 inches). The final wind speed will never be known because all measuring devices were destroyed, but it is thought to exceed 200 mph.

4. Hurricane Andrew (1992) - Florida and Louisiana
A Category 4 when it hit Florida, Hurricane Andrew hit Louisiana as a Category 3. At its peak, Andrew had a minimum pressure of 922 millibars (27.23 inches).

5. Unnamed Hurricane (1886) - Texas
This Category 4 hurricane turned Indianola into a Ghost Town. Today, the Court House lies 300 feet out in Matagorda Bay. The storm had a recorded minimum pressure of 925 millibars (27.31 inches).

6. The Atlantic-Gulf Hurricane (1919) - Florida, Texas
This hurricane struck the Keys as a Category 4, and Texas as a Category 3. At its peak, it had a minimum pressure of 927 millibars (27.37 inches).

7. San Felipe-Okeechobee Hurricane (1928) - Florida
The fourth strongest Hurricane to hit the US mainland caused a lake surge on the inland Lake Okeechobee in Florida that rose as high as nine feet, flooding nearby towns. A Category 4, it had a minimum pressure of 929 millibars (27.43 inches)

8. Hurricane Donna (1960) - Florida to New England
The only hurricane known to have produced hurricane-force winds in Florida, the Mid-Atlantic states, and New England. At its peak, it had a minimum pressure of 930 milibars (27.46 inches).

9. Unnamed Storm (1915) - New Orleans, Louisiana
This unnamed Category 4 Storm reached a minimum pressure of 931 millibars (27.49 inches). It flooded Lake Pontchartrain, causing it to overflow its banks and killing 275 people.

10. Hurricane Carla (1961) - Texas
A Category 4, Carla had a minimum pressure of 931 millibars (27.49 inches), tying it with the 1915 Louisiana storm.

11. Unnamed Hurricane (1900) - Texas
A category 4 hurricane, it struck Galveston, Texas, with sustained winds of 140 miles per hour, killing 8,000 people. With no radar, tracking, or predictions, there were no preparations made for the storm. The highest elevation in Galveston in 1900 was 8.7 feet; the 15.7 foot storm surge covered the homes and businesses like an ocean. It cost $20 million at the time; in today's money, the damage would have cost $700 million. After the hurricane, Galveston raised a sea wall and increased the grade of the island to prevent a recurrence of the tragedy.

Deadliest Hurricanes

Rank	Hurricane	Year	Category	Deaths
1.	Galveston, Tex.	1900
2.	Lake Okeechobee, Fla.	1928	4	2,500
3.	Katrina (La./Miss.)	2005	3	1,800
4.	Florida Keys/S. Tex.	1919	4	600
5.	New England	1938	3	600
6.	Florida Keys	1935	5	408
7.	Audrey (SW La./N. Tex.)	1957	4	390
8.	NE U.S.	1944	3	390
9.	Grand Isle, La.	1909	4	350
10.	New Orleans, La.	1915	4	275
10.	Galveston, Tex.	1915	4	275

Costliest Hurricanes

Rank	Hurricane	Season	Cost (2005 USD)
1.	“Miami”	1926	$157 billion
2.	“Galveston”	1900	$99.4 billion
3.	Katrina	2005	$81.0 billion
4.	“Galveston”	1915	$68.0 billion
5.	Andrew	1992	$55.8 billion
6.	“New England”	1938	$39.2 billion
7.	“Pinar del Río”	1944	$38.7 billion
8.	“Okeechobee”	1928	$33.6 billion
9.	Donna	1960	$26.8 billion
10.	Camille	1969	$21.2 billion