Greece's Role in the Energy Game Between Russia and Turkey
Russia vs Turkey : The Geopolitics of the South and the Turk Stream Pipelines [Excerpt]
- At the following Spiegel article, titled “Erdogan Urges Turks Not to Assimilate”, February 2011, you can read that during his very successful tour in Germany, Erdogan urged Germans of Turkish origin not to assimilate. The Germans are not feeling very comfortable with that, given that Erdogan is an Islamist, and he is also supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
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They have come from all over Germany to see him live, some 10,000 people. They say things like: “The Germans will never accept us, but we have Erdogan.” Or: “At last someone feels responsible for us, for the first time a Turkish prime minister isn’t forgetting his compatriots abroad.” One woman says: “Erdogan may get Merkel to see us as part of this society. He is our savior.”
Some 3 million people of Turkish origin live in Germany, most of them descendants of Turks invited by the government in the 1950s and 1960s as ” guest workers” to make up for a shortage of manpower after World War II.
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In a newspaper interview published ahead of his speech, Erdogan urged Merkel to drop her opposition to Turkey’s accession to the EU. “Never have such political obstacles been put in the path of an accession country,” he said.
And then he repeats the sentence that caused such a stir at a speech heheld in Cologne three years ago. He warns Turks against assimilating themselves. “Yes, integrate yourselves into German society but don’t assimilate yourselves. No one has the right to deprive us of our culture and our identity.”The new Greek government is trying to take advantage of this diversion between the American and German interests by indirectly saying to the Americans that if they do not put pressure on the EU, in order to give money to Greece without asking for privatisations and reforms, Greece will block the Southern Energy Corridor by stopping the Trans Adriatic Pipeline.
Erdogan knows that this statement amounts to a provocation in Germany — no politician here is demanding that Turkish immigrants should deny their roots or give up their culture. Erdogan adds: “German newspapers will pick up on this tomorrow, but that’s a mistake.”
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/erdogan-urges-turks-not-to-assimilate-you-are-part-of-germany-but-also-part-of-our-great-turkey-a-748070.html
On the other hand the new Greek government is also saying to the Germans that if they do not give money to Greece without asking for reforms and privatisations, Greece will block the Southern Energy Corridor, which will force Turkey and Albania to attack Greece, and the United States will have to rush on the side of Turkey to create an alternative to the Southern Energy Corridor and save NATO from the Russian gas.
But if the Americans help the Turks and the Albanians, the Germans cannot be on their side, because they cannot afford to see the Islamists reaching the heart of Europe, as would happen if the Christian wall that is formed by Greece and Bulgaria was to fall (see the following map).
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The Islamists of Turkey are a much greater problem for the Europeans than the Americans, and a collapse of Greece could possibly lead to an even greater divergence of interests between the Americans and the Germans. After all, Northern European countries are already connected to the Russian gas through the North Stream pipeline, and it is very unlikely that they would be willing to support Turkey and Albania against Greece. For the Northern Europeans it would probably be better if Greece was left bankrupt but untouched. But the Americans and other NATO members cannot see it that way because if there is no Southern Energy Corridor there is no NATO, unless of course Putin decides to make Russia a democratic country, which for the moment seems unlikely.
The Greek communists are threatening both the Americans and the Germans that if they insist on reforms and privatisations they will kill Greece, implying that Greece’s funeral will be very very expensive for both of them. If Greece collapses very dramatic events could be triggered. The Americans and the Germans are not worrying about the economic consequences of a Greek collapse, but they are terrified about the geopolitical consequences of such a collapse.
These are very dangerous games by the Greek communists who are willing to risk Greek land just to save their businesses in the Greek public sector.
As you can see at the following article by the British Telegraph, titled “Greece’s defence minister threatens to send migrants, including jihadists, to Western Europe”, March 2015, Panos Kammenos, the Greek Defence Minister is directly threatening the Germans that Greece will send immigrants and jihadists to Germany.
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th ParagraphsAt the same time Greece is discussing with Russia the possibility of allowing Russia to use Greek military bases, as you can read at the following article of the state owned Sputnik, titled “Greece Might Allow Russia to Use Its Military Bases –Greek Defense Analyst”, April 2015.
Greece will unleash a “wave of millions of economic migrants” and jihadists on Europe unless the eurozone backs down on austerity demands, the country’s defence and foreign ministers have threatened.
The threat comes as Greece struggles to convince the eurozone and International Monetery Fund to continue payments on a £172billion bailout of Greek finances.
Without the funding, Greece will go bust later this month forcing the recession-ravaged and highly indebted country out of the EU’s single currency.
Greece’s border with Turkey is the EU’s frontline against illegal immigration and European measures to stop extremists travelling to and from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) bases in Syria and Iraq.
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“If they deal a blow to Greece, then they should know the the migrants will get papers to go to Berlin,” he said.
“If Europe leaves us in the crisis, we will flood it with migrants, and it will be even worse for Berlin if in that wave of millions of economic migrants there will be some jihadists of the Islamic State too.”
“If Europe leaves us in the crisis, we will flood it with migrants, and it will be even worse for Berlin if in that wave of millions of economic migrants there will be some jihadists of the Islamic State too.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11459675/Greeces-defence-minister-threatens-to-send-migrants-including-jihadists-to-Western-Europe.html
http://sputniknews.com/military/20150414/1020893392.html
That’s why the American Minister of Defence embarrassed his Greek counterpart in May 2015. Panos Kammenos travelled to United States to meet the American Defence Minister, and the American minister cancelled the meeting on a very short notice, while Panos Kammenos was already in the United States. And the Americans did not even allow the Greek Minister to see his deputy, as you can read at the following Enikos article, titled “Greek defense min snubbed by US counterpart”, May 2015.
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th ParagraphsAll this game that is being played between Greece, USA and Russia, led Turkey to announce a major military exercise in the Mediterranean Sea in March 2015. This exercise included Greek territories, even though the Turks later cancelled it as you can read at the following Enikos article, titled “Turkey cancels provocative military exercise in Aegean”, March 2015. Enikos is one of the largest Greek news portals.
Defence minister Panos Kammenos, on visit to the United States, will see neither his counterpart, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, nor his deputy, Robert Work.
Carter cancelled the meeting over the weekend, invoking a busy schedule.
Kammenos will go to the Pentagon, to meet Christine Wormuth, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. He will also meet Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs at the United States Department of State, whom he has already met in Athens.
Reportedly, Greek diplomats were scrambling to upgrade Kammenos’ contacts, without success.
http://en.enikos.gr/politics/29227,Greek-defense-min-snubbed-by-US-couterpart.html
1st, 2nd, 3rd ParagraphsAlmost at the same time, in May 2015, the Albanians said they have claims over Greek territories, as you can read at the following Kathimerini article, titled “Albanian demarche raises concerns about possible territorial claims over Greece”, May 2015. Kathimerini is one of the largest and most reliable Greek newspapers.
Greece says Turkey has withdrawn a recent notice seeking to reserve a large swathe of airspace over the Aegean Sea for military maneuvers until the end of the year.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Constantinos Koutras said Monday that Turkey has withdrawn the Notice to Airmen, or NOTAM, which it had issued to reserve extensive airspace over the Aegean Sea for military use from March 2 to Dec. 31.
Greece had complained about the planned manoeuvers, which it said would have intruded into Greek airspace, interfered with traffic to two regional airports and affected two international air traffic routes.
http://en.enikos.gr/politics/24919,Turkey-cancels-provocative-military-exercise-in-Aegean.html
1st, 2nd, 3rd ParagraphsI know that to a non Greek all this sound unbelievable, but that’s what happens in all countries that are run by corrupt socialist and religious regimes. It is not just Greece. I have kept asking my self if Greek politicians can actually kill Greece in order to protect their interests in the public sector. I cannot answer this question, but Greek politicians have definitely done it in the past.
A strong-worded demarche delivered by Albania to Greek authorities over energy exploration indicates that Tirana is asserting territorial claims along the land border dividing the two Balkan neighbors, Kathimerini understands.
Last week’s demarche, which called on Athens to revise its plans for hydrocarbon exploration in the Ionian Sea on the grounds it would encroach on Albanian territorial waters, also requested Greek officials to make available land surveys of Epirus in northwestern Greece.
Speaking to Kathimerini, diplomatic sources interpreted the move as a clear bid to question existing borders between the two nations. On a political level, the demarche is seen as a high-risk initiative for Albania and bilateral relations.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_19/05/2015_550148
Before closing the chapter I would like to bring to your attention some very interesting articles about Greece and her role in the energy game between Russia and Turkey.
1) A very good article about Greece and the Interconnector-Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) is Natural Gas Europe’s “Re-affirming The Greek Energy Strategy on Energy Union”, March 2015.
13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th Paragraphs2) At the following Financial Times article, titled “Tsipras will not find salvation in Moscow”, April 2015, you can read that the new Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, might have a motive to default on the Greek debt and turn to Russia for help. According to the Financial Times, what Tsipras can offer Putin is the boycott of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, and also vetoing the extension of economic sanctions against Russia. However, according to the FT, Russia cannot provide Greece with sufficient funds. Moreover the Greek politicians would be scared to replace their European creditors with Russians creditors, because the Russians are much tougher than the Europeans.
The next pivotal step towards enhancing Greece’s role in the region is through the realisation of the Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector (IGB) which is the starting point of the vertical corridors which were referred to in the Joint Statement signed by the Energy Ministers of Greece, Bulgaria and Romania on December 9th in Brussels.
IGB’s completion will represent a crucial milestone in the EU’s efforts to build a regional energy market in South East Europe, as it will enable gas flow from TAP and a new LNG facility in Northern Greece to filter into Bulgaria, extending onwards to Central Europe, through the Balkans and South Eastern Europe.
After the inaugural meeting of the newly formed Central Eastern South Europe High level working group (CESEC) in Sofia on the 9th February, the Energy Ministers of Greece and Bulgaria agreed to accelerate works related to IGB and set a goal of arriving to a final investment decision in May 2015, ahead of the next CESEC meeting in June.
The projected cost of the IGB currently amounts to €220 million. The project has been awarded the status of a project of common interest, and features in the short term priorities of the EU’s energy security strategy published in May 2014. As such, it has already received €45 million in financing from the European Economic Programme for Recovery, while it has significant potential for further financing – Connecting Europe Facility, Juncker Plan.
However straightforward this project might seem, significant forces have been delaying its development. Notably, the loss of the Nabucco and the South Stream projects has alienated the Bulgarian authorities, making the next steps in their energy policy unclear.
Bulgaria’s ambiguity is emphasised by the recent agreement of Bulgargaz with Botas on the Turkey-Bulgaria Interconnector (ITB), as well as the Prime Minister’s request to have Turkey participate in the CESEC meeting, only to be rejected by the EU Vice President for Energy Union.
The situation becomes more complex if we consider that the ‘Eastring’ project – originally planned as a counter balance to South Stream that would link Bulgaria to Romania, Hungary and Slovakia – has been touted as a possible link to Gazprom’s new Turkish Stream concept, which would include the building of a gas hub in Turkey.
Such developments would be at odds with the Greek energy policy as mapped out by the former government. Turkish analysts in Botas have stated that if Greece were to develop newly planned LNG capacity in Alexandroupoli and Kavala, there would be no added value offered by ITB given the relatively small size of the regional gas markets in South East Europe.
The Greek government needs to act swiftly in re-affirming its energy strategy and capitalise on the current willingness from the EU to fund Greek projects – e.g. IGB, Aegean LNG. Greece should build on the political momentum achieved at the EU level following the signing of the vertical corridors declaration on December 9th 2014.
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/re-affirming-the-greek-energy-strategy-on-energy-union-22487?utm_source=Natural+Gas+Europe+Newsletter&utm_campaign=581fc7ac42-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c95c702d4c-581fc7ac42-307785513
1st , 2nd, 3rd Paragraphs3) At the following article of Natural Gas Europe, titled “New Greek Government Changes Course on Natural Gas Sector”, February 2015, you can read that the newly elected Greek government of SYRIZA and Independent Greeks wants to reexamine the clauses of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, supposedly for striking a better deal for Greece. According to the article, the new Greek government is willing to even take the TAP agreement to the European Court of Justice. Taking the TAP agreement to the European Court of Justice would essentially block it for the coming years.
As the range of options for Greece appears to dwindle by the day, is it time for Athens to consider a strategic alliance with Russia as part of some plan B? We may find out this Wednesday when Alexis Tsipras is due to visit President Vladimir Putin of Russia. Greece’s prime minister might be tempted to default on all its foreign creditors and bondholders, exit the eurozone and get Moscow to provide some short-term funding to prevent a collapse of the banking system. In exchange, Mr Tsipras could offer to veto the extension of EU sanctions against Russia. Athens could also boycott the trans-Adriatic pipeline, through which the EU hopes to tap Caspian gas bypassing Russian territory. The longest section of the pipeline, over 500km, would run through Greek territory.
If only it was so simple. For all the speculation about the logic of such a deal, I remain profoundly sceptical for a number of reasons.
The first is that Mr Putin would probably not be able to bankroll Greece to any serious extent. The Russian economy is in bad shape. According to the latest Russia report by the World Bank it will decline by 3.8 per cent this year, mainly due to the fall in oil and gas prices. The sanctions did not have much of an impact initially. But they have effectively killed off investment, which in turn will lower future growth. The fall in energy prices has also made the sanctions more potent.
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Second, the relationship between a member state and the EU is based on international treaties. Member states have legal rights, and they have an independent court of justice to defend those rights. If they have a bilateral deal with Russia, they are on their own. There will be no question about who calls the shots. So they will have to ask themselves: do they really want Mr Putin as their creditor? I am just trying to picture a scene of what would happen if the Greek finance minister were to give one of his instructional PowerPoint lectures to his Russian colleagues. When he does this in Brussels, people try very hard to stay polite.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/98ca9c8c-da2b-11e4-ab32-00144feab7de.html?ftcamp=crm%2Femail%2F_2015___04___20150405__%2Femailalerts%2FKeyword_alert%2Fproduct
The article also mentions SYRIZA’s opposition towards the economic sanctions that were imposed on Russia by the European Union, and Greece’s dependency on Russia for oil and natural gas. Sixty five percent of the Greek oil imports, and 75% of the Greek natural gas imports come from Russia according to the article. In the 11th paragraph the article mentions the issues of the floating LNG terminal of the North Aegean Sea, and the Interconnector Greece Buglaria pipelines, and it says that they are on the table of negotiations too, because these two projects would diversify Greek and Bulgarian natural gas imports away from Russian and Azeri natural gas.
8th, 9th Paragraphs4) At the following article of the Russian state-owned news agency Itar-Tass, titled “Greece PM says sanctions against Russia a road to nowhere”, March 2015, you can read that the newly elected Prime Minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras, accused the previous Greek governments, because in his opinion they did not do the best they could to prevent the European sanctions against Russia.
TAP project may also be facing head winds. Local media reports indicate the Syriza government will request in the short term, an amendment of the clauses that have been signed by the previous administration. Most importantly, those include the payment of transit fees by TAP consortium. Should these fees be denied, Syriza will then examine the option of taking the subject to the European Court of Justice, since according to the standing EU and Greek law, transit fees are to be requested by the national member states. In such case, several former governmental figures, maybe found liable of damaging the economic interests of the state that is a punishable penal offence, as a Syriza official emphatically commented for Natural Gas Europe.
Syriza also appears to be pursuing closer relations with Russia. Lafazanis conveyed he personal opposition to the embargo on Russia. It should be noted that already Greece is heavily dependent on Russian energy supplies, receiving 65% of its oil imports and 75% of its gas from Russian companies, most notably Gazprom and Lukoil. The reason for that is that the country has lost its traditional suppliers such as Libya and Iran on oil business, and the gas streaming from Russian pipelines is under long-term contracts and relatively, depending on seasonal adjustments, cheaper that LNG supplies.
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Another topic of importance in the natural gas sector is that of the LNG infrastructure. There appears to be no change in the Greek position, with the upgrade of the Revythousa LNG terminal proceeding as well as the intention of establishing a new terminal in Northern Greece that will aim to diversify both Greek and Bulgaria supplies and away from Russian and Azeri imports.
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/greek-government-natural-gas-policy
4th Paragraph5) At the following Guardian article, titled “Alexis Tsipras looks to Moscow but risks becoming Putin’s useful idiot”, April 2015, you can read that Putin has more to gain from the visit of the Greek Prime Minister to Russia, because Putin can demonstrate another division within the EU. According to the Guardian, Putin is financing the French far-right party of Marine Le Pen, the “National Front”, and the Greek Prime Minister will be seen as joining the Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, and the Serbian government, who are ready to applaud Putin.
“You know that over the past years a blow was dealt to these relations as the previous governments in my country had not done what they could have done to avoid this senseless sanctions policy, in my opinion, amid tensions in Ukraine,” he said.
http://tass.ru/en/world/786024
8th Paragraph6) At the following Natural Gas Europe article, titled “SYRIZA Sees Greek Hub For Russian Gas a Great Opportunity”, January 2015, you can read that according to Athanasios Petrakos, who is one of SYRIZA’s specialists on energy issues, the Turkish Stream is a great opportunity for Greece.
So Putin has more to gain from Tsipras’s visit than the Greek leader does. It will be another demonstration of European divisions, and a good chance to showcase pro-Kremlin networks within the EU. Russia’s financing of France’s far-right National Front was a comparable PR stunt for Putin last year. Tsipras will be seen as joining the ranks of those, like the Hungarian prime minister Victor Orbán or the Serbian government, who are readily available to applaud Putin. Tsipras has already shown himself to be a “useful” partner to Putin by saying European sanctions against Russia are “a road to nowhere”. In fact, they are a serious concern for the Kremlin and currently represent Europe’s only leverage of soft power.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/02/tsipras-moscow-risks-putin-useful-idiot?CMP=share_btn_fb
“The 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year, that will be accumulated in Turkey’s border with Greece are a great opportunity for Greece to upgrade its geopolitical role”, said Athanasios Petrakos, who is also in charge of Eurosceptic party’s energy policy.7) At the following Guardian article, titled “Athens plays Russian card, eyes Turkish Stream”, April 2015, you can read that the newly-elected Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, wishes to upgrade the Greek-Russian relations by opposing European sanctions against Russia. As you can read in the 9th paragraph, the new Energy Minister of Greece, Panagiotis Lafazanis, said that the EU is not the uncontrolled boss of the European national governments.
Greece will go to the polls in a national election on January 25th following the country’s parliament failed to elect a president in the third and final round of voting on December 29, 2014. Several recent polls indicate that Syriza holds a lead of over 3 percentage points over Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy party.
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/syriza-sees-greek-hub-for-russian-gas?utm_source=Natural+Gas+Europe+Newsletter&utm_campaign=ecfc73bb72-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c95c702d4c-ecfc73bb72-307785513
1st Paragraph8) At the following Euroactiv article, titled “Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary discuss Turkish Stream”, April 2015, you can read that the foreign ministers of Greece, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary, would meet in Hungary to discuss a Russian plan for the new Turkish Stream pipeline. Actually the pipeline that these countries are considering is the Balkan Pipeline, which will connect the Turk Stream to Hungary through Greece, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Serbia.
Preparing the ground for a much-discussed visit in Moscow (8-9 April), Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras reiterated his opposition to EU sanctions against Moscow, adding that debt-ridden country’s ambition is to upgrade its relations with Russia.
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In an interview with the state-owned Russian news agency Tass, Tsipras said that Greek-Russian relations received a blow last year, “as the previous Greek governments didn’t do their best to avoid the sanctions [against Moscow] due to Ukraine crisis”.
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Lafazanis also announced the expansion of Russia-driven Turkish Stream pipeline to Greece, saying that the final decision on the issue will be taken by the Greek Prime Minister, based on the national interests of Athens and not the European Commission, which according to him, “is not an uncontrolled boss of EU national governments”.
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Greece imports 65% of its annual gas needs from Russia. Despite a deal for a gas price reduction by 15% last year between natural gas importer and distributor (DEPA) and Gazprom, Greeks keep on paying the highest bill in Europe, due to the state monopoly that has dominated the Greek energy market.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/athens-plays-russian-card-eyes-turkish-stream-313533
1st Paragraph9) A very good article about the newly-elected Greek government and the Southern Energy Corridor is Natural Gas Europe’s “The New Greek Government: Implications for Azerbaijan’s DESFA Purchase”, March 2015. You can read that SYRIZA’s victory was welcomed by Russia, even though SYRIZA is not radically pro-Russian, but because it opposes many European Union policies. In this sense, according to the article, SYRIZA is similar to other European parties like Jobbik (Hungary), the National Front (France) and the National Democratic Party (Germany).
The foreign ministers of Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary are due today (7 April) to meet in Budapest to explore their potential participation in Russian plans for the new Turkish Stream pipeline.
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Russia has said that it’s up to the EU to decide how to move the gas from there. Over a recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Hungary, his host, the Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has drawn a map for he planned pipeline through the territories of Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/greece-macedonia-serbia-and-hungary-discuss-turkish-stream-313567
According to the article, the newly-elected Greek government destabilized the energy market, because the new Greek Energy Minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, immediately announced that the Greek Public Power Corporation (DEH) and the Public Gas Corporation (DEPA) would not be privatized as it was agreed by the previous government. The decision on DEPA affects the sale of its subsidiary, DESFA, a Greek public natural gas company, which was supposed to be sold to SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state owned energy company.
SOCAR would buy 66% of DESFA, and the only thing missing for the deal to be finalized was a decision by the European Commission, because SOCAR is also a producer of natural gas, and the European anti-monopolistic rules do not allow producers of natural gas to also own the pipeline networks distributing this gas in the European Union. However the EU can make exceptions to pipeline networks that do not comply to the EU regulations, if they are improving the overall energy security of the EU, or if they increase competition in the EU.
An exception was granted for Gazprom’s Nord Stream pipeline, which connected Russia and Germany through the Baltic Sea. It was believed that the Nord Stream was increasing the energy security of the EU, because it was bypassing Ukraine. European countries cannot count on Ukraine for their gas imports, due to the famous Russian-Ukrainian conflicts over gas prices. Therefore I guess that an exception could be also granted to SOCAR, since SOCAR’s network will increase competition for other natural gas providers. Maybe for an exception to be granted, SOCAR will also have to sell some of the shares of its projects.
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