Collapse of the U.S. Economy

Let's Hope These 4 Things Don't Happen

January 13, 2010

U.S. News & World Report - In the cast of corporate characters, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are A-list villains, thanks to the central role they played in the 2008 financial meltdown. The two mortgage-finance firms failed as spectacularly as AIG, the poster child for finance-gone-wrong, with the combined Fannie-Freddie rescue totaling about $111 billion so far—the biggest bailout of all. Both firms are effectively nationalized, and the government would probably wind them down except for one thing: They underwrite about three quarters of all the mortgages issued in the United States.

You've probably heard that the economy is recovering, that consumers are more optimistic, and that companies might soon begin hiring more workers than they're firing. Hooray. We'll all be thrilled when the economy stops quivering. The only problem with an upbeat prognosis is that large chunks of the U.S. economy remain addicted to financial painkillers or dependent upon dysfunctional institutions like Fannie and Freddie, and we've never gone through the kind of withdrawal that's set to take place this year.

If all goes well, we'll avoid messy complications, such as these:
Housing tanks all over again. It's hard to believe the housing market could get any worse, with prices already down by more than 30 percent from their 2007 peak. On the other hand, it's astounding that housing is as bad as it is, considering the massive amounts of government aid that have been transfused into this comatose market. In addition to subsidizing the entire mortgage market via Fannie and Freddie, the government has also stepped in to buy billions in mortgage-backed securities—replacing private investors who are sitting on the sidelines—to keep money flowing to consumers. Then there are the tax breaks meant to spur demand for homes and other programs to reduce foreclosures and arrest the plunge in prices.

The tax breaks expire this year, and the government probably can't afford to extend them (again). The Federal Reserve and other agencies have also said they'll begin an orderly withdrawal from housing finance in 2010. Most forecasts call for a spike in foreclosures and further price declines in the first half of the year, with a possible bottom and tepid recovery in the second half. But it's far from clear what will happen when the government aid dissipates. Will that remove one leg from the chair? Two? Three? If the private markets don't fill the void left when the government backs out, it could trigger a fresh crisis that inflicts more collateral damage on the rest of the economy.

Stocks crash. An epic bull rally since the lows of March 2009 has probably been the single biggest contributor to the so-called recovery. Though stocks are still down from their October 2007 peak, the rebound has eased a sense of panic and helped restore some of the household wealth lost in the housing bust (for those lucky enough to have stock-market investments and to have stuck with them through the bottom). And that's probably been a big factor helping consumer spending to recover. But while stocks have been surging, jobs have continued to disappear, and this divergence between Wall Street and Main Street must end. The conventional view is that stocks foretell a pickup in the "real economy," which will follow the market's recovery after a lag of some length. But what if it's the moribund job market that exerts the stronger gravitational pull, dragging down stocks? If so, buckle in for a double-dip.
There's a U.S. debt crisis. Assuming the economy stabilizes, this is also the year that President Obama will start to talk tough about reducing America's $8 trillion public debt, which amounts to more than half of our total economic output. There will be careful efforts to make sure that no deserving American feels any pain (the rich don't count as deserving) and that Congress passes no unpopular measures that would get anybody unelected. The financial markets might buy this, allowing our government to keep borrowing and keep spending beyond its means. Or the markets might decide that America is heading toward bankruptcy and dump the dollar, forcing the world's biggest debtor nation to pay higher rates on its securities, slash spending, and hike taxes. We should probably just relax, confident that Washington politicians always rally to head off devastating problems before they explode.

Consumers become rational. Given the painful transformation of the U.S. economy, Americans ought to be saving like crazy and buying nothing they don't need. Some are, but it's not clear yet if Americans as a whole will save more over the long term or go back to spending nearly everything they have. The savings rate has crept up to about 5 percent, but that's still lower than the long-term average and far lower than you might expect after a collapse like the one we've endured. If savings continue to go up—a prudent move for most households—consumer spending will come down, leaving a hole in the growth of our gross domestic product, with little else to fill it. So hopes for a vigorous rebound rest on spendthrift consumers being as materialistic as ever. Now there's a strong foundation for success.

11 Clear Signs That the U.S. Economy is Headed into the Toilet

January 15, 2010

The Economic Collapse - The vast majority of the talking heads on television are still speaking of the current economic collapse as if it is a temporary "recession" that will soon be over. So far, the vast majority of the American people seem to believe this as well, although for many Americans there is a very deep gnawing in the pit of their stomachs that is telling them that there is something very, very wrong this time around.

The truth is that the foundations of the U.S. economy have been destroyed by an orgy of government, corporate and individual debt that has gone on for decades. It was the greatest party in the history of the world, but now the party is over.

The following are 11 signs from just this past month that show that the U.S. economy is headed into the toilet and will not be recovering....

#1) When even Wal-Mart is closing stores you know things are bad. Wal-Mart announced on Monday that it will close 10 money-losing Sam's Club stores and will cut 1,500 jobs in order to reduce costs. So if even Wal-Mart has to shut down stores, what chance do other retailers have?

#2) Americans are going broke at a staggering pace. 1.41 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009 -- a 32 percent increase over 2008.

#3) American workers are working harder than ever and yet making less. After adjusting for inflation, pay for production and non-supervisory workers (80 percent of the private workforce) is 9% lower than it was in 1973. But those Americans who do still have jobs are the fortunate ones.

#4) Unemployment is absolutely exploding all over the United States. Minority groups have been hit particularly hard. For example, unemployment on many U.S. Indian reservations is over 80 percent.

#5) Unfortunately the employment situation is showing no signs of turning around. December was actually the worst month for U.S. unemployment since the so-called "Great Recession" began.

#6) So just how bad are things when compared to past recessions? During the 2001 recession, the U.S. economy lost 2% of its jobs, and it took four years to get them back. This time the U.S. economy has lost more than 5% of its jobs, and there is no sign that the bleeding of jobs will stop any time soon.

#7) Can you imagine trying to get your first job in this economic climate? Our young men and women either can't get work or have given up on work altogether. The percentage of Americans 16 to 24 who have jobs is 13 percent lower than ten years ago.

#8) So where did all the jobs go? Over the past few decades we have allowed the corporate giants to ship mountains of American jobs overseas, and there are signs that this trend is only going to get worse. In fact, Princeton University economist Alan S. Blinder estimates that 22% to 29% of all current U.S. jobs will be offshorable within two decades. So get ready for even more of our jobs to be shipped off to Mexico, China and India.

#9) All of these job losses are leading to defaults on mortgages. Over the past couple of years we have seen the American Dream in reverse. According to a report that was just released, delinquent home loans at government-controlled mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac surged 20 percent from July through September.

#10) But that is nothing compared to what is coming. A massive "second wave" of mortgage defaults is getting ready to hit the U.S. economy starting in 2010. In fact, this "second wave" is so frightening that even 60 Minutes is reporting on it.

#11) Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has announced that it made a record profit of $46.1 billion in 2009. Apparently during this economic crisis it is a very good time to be a bankster.

Retail Sales Take a Fall in December

January 14, 2010

CNNMoney.com - Retail sales fell in December, the government reported Thursday, putting a damper on hopes that the holiday shopping season would boost figures.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales fell 0.3% to $353 billion last month, compared with November's upwardly revised 1.8% jump. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had anticipated that December sales would grow 0.5%.

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and related reports such as retail sales are closely watched to determine whether a recovery is underway.

Sales excluding autos and auto parts fell by 0.2% from November. Analysts expected sales ex-autos to jump 0.3%.

The December might have been even lower without a stronger-than-expected holiday shopping season. A separate Thursday report from the National Retail Foundation said year-end holiday sales rose unexpectedly by 1.1% to $446.8 billion.

Given that the economy was so weak 12 months ago, the year-to-year increase was strong. December 2009 retail sales jumped 5.4% compared to the same month in 2008.

"[It's not] clear how much of this reflects a catch-up from the fantastically depressed post-Lehman period ... and how much represents a sustainable, if very modest, upturn," said Ian Shepherdson, economist at High-Frequency Economics, in a research note. "We suspect more of the latter."

The December data are not enough "to reach a definitive verdict" on the holiday sales season, Shepherdson said. The January report will be "hugely important" as well because it reflects holiday gift card spending and post-holiday sales.

Total sales for 2009 retreated 6.2% from 2008.