43% of Registered GOP Voters Believe Trump has the Greatest Chance of Winning the Nomination; Polls Show Both Sanders and Clinton Would Defeat Trump
Sen. Bernie Sanders
runs far behind Hillary Clinton in the Democratic nomination fight, but
the socialist from Vermont would defeat New York real estate mogul and
Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in a presidential general election, a poll suggests. A Quinnipiac University poll
released on July 30, 2015, shows that in a hypothetical general election
match-up, Sanders tops Trump 44% to 39%. The data point shows that
although Trump is leading the GOP pack now, he could prove to be a
disaster for Republicans in a broader presidential contest next year. Trump also trails Democratic Party frontrunner Hillary Clinton
by a margin of 12 percentage points in the poll and to Vice President
Joe Biden by 13 percentage points should he join the race and win the
party nomination. In contrast, the survey found that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker to be in a tight race with Clinton. [Source]
A Washington Post/ABC poll released Sunday released on September 13, 2015 shows that Trump would trail Clinton 46% to 43% among registered voters if the general election were held today. The poll comes as Clinton has seen her support shrink among large swaths of likely primary and general-election voters. For example, Trump leads her by five points among self-identified Independent voters. Clinton is currently trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) in New Hampshire, the crucial first-in-the-nation primary state. Sanders is also surging in the first-caucus state of Iowa while continuing to rise in national polls of Democratic primary voters. A new CNN poll also showed Clinton losing hypothetical match-ups with several Republican rivals, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. She was also virtually tied with Trump in that poll. [Source]
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson just achieved a milestone in the Republican presidential primary: edging front-runner Donald Trump in a notable poll. Quinnipiac University released a new Iowa survey on Thursday that found Carson leading Trump 28% to 20% among likely caucus-goers. "Those who know Ben Carson seem to like him," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown on October 22, 2015. "He has an almost unheard of 84-10 percent favorability rating among likely Republican caucus-goers, compared to Trump's 53-43 percent rating. To borrow the line from Madison Avenue, 'Almost no one doesn't like Ben Carson.'" [Source] Get ready for a smear campaign by the traditional news media/political environment!
Donald Trump is involved in another campaign which involves the UK Supreme Court: to sue Scotland over its wind farms that are two miles from his golf course. Watch "You've Been Trumped" and read the comment section of "Donald Trump Buys Irish Golf Course After Losing" at The Guardian. Traditional media outlets have said nothing about this, perhaps saving it for the last minute to ensure a Sanders or Clinton victory in 2016.
A Washington Post/ABC poll released Sunday released on September 13, 2015 shows that Trump would trail Clinton 46% to 43% among registered voters if the general election were held today. The poll comes as Clinton has seen her support shrink among large swaths of likely primary and general-election voters. For example, Trump leads her by five points among self-identified Independent voters. Clinton is currently trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) in New Hampshire, the crucial first-in-the-nation primary state. Sanders is also surging in the first-caucus state of Iowa while continuing to rise in national polls of Democratic primary voters. A new CNN poll also showed Clinton losing hypothetical match-ups with several Republican rivals, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. She was also virtually tied with Trump in that poll. [Source]
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson just achieved a milestone in the Republican presidential primary: edging front-runner Donald Trump in a notable poll. Quinnipiac University released a new Iowa survey on Thursday that found Carson leading Trump 28% to 20% among likely caucus-goers. "Those who know Ben Carson seem to like him," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown on October 22, 2015. "He has an almost unheard of 84-10 percent favorability rating among likely Republican caucus-goers, compared to Trump's 53-43 percent rating. To borrow the line from Madison Avenue, 'Almost no one doesn't like Ben Carson.'" [Source] Get ready for a smear campaign by the traditional news media/political environment!
Donald Trump is involved in another campaign which involves the UK Supreme Court: to sue Scotland over its wind farms that are two miles from his golf course. Watch "You've Been Trumped" and read the comment section of "Donald Trump Buys Irish Golf Course After Losing" at The Guardian. Traditional media outlets have said nothing about this, perhaps saving it for the last minute to ensure a Sanders or Clinton victory in 2016.
Donald Trump has experienced a major shift in one of the most significant predictors of electoral success
October 20, 2015Yahoo! Politics - An interesting data point from a new poll Wednesday suggests that Donald Trump's presidential campaign arc is now more closely mirroring that of a traditional front-runner, rather than that of an insurgent fad.
The ABC/Washington Post poll found that a plurality of likely Republican primary voters now believe Trump will be their party's nominee.
According to the poll, 43% of registered GOP voters nationally believe that Trump has the greatest chance of winning the nomination. His closest competitors in the poll are retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who was the choice of 16% of GOP voters, and former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, who had 12%.
When the Post/ABC survey last asked the question, in March, Trump did not register. Bush received 35% of the vote then, 25 points ahead of his next-closest competitor, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
The shift could be significant. A 2012 study, pointed to by The New York Times' David Leonhardt, found that measuring who voters think will win is actually a much better indicator of the eventual winner of an election than gauging who has the most voter support.
Most polling experts and political pundits have written off Trump's consistently large leads among Republicans in every major poll for more than three months.
Analysts have cited historical precedents that show that unconventional presidential candidates like Trump, who lacks the backing of the party establishment and experience running in national political contests, struggle to win even if they experience a groundswell of support in the early stages of the nomination process.
Some of the consistent warning signs pointed to by these analysts remain. Trump still loses
in most head-to-head matchups with other major candidates, according to
a recent Economist/YouGov poll. And 100 days still remain until the
first caucuses in Iowa and the first primary in New Hampshire, where many voters are still undecided.
Princeton University polling expert Sam Wang suggested that Trump's still-high unfavorable rating among GOP voters may prevent him from rising beyond the fervent base of support he has built within the party.
"It can be hard to tell from polls alone who has staying power," Wang told Business Insider last week. "As a speculation, I think he might persist in the 20-30% range for some time, and that another candidate could pull ahead of that objectively low number."
But there are still growing
signs that even if Republicans don't support Trump, they still think he
is a legitimate candidate who is the best to handle certain issues.
A CNN poll released last week found that Trump was by far the most popular candidate among Republican primary voters in two key states — Nevada and South Carolina — on numerous issues. That CNN poll showed Republicans trusted Trump over any other candidate to handle the economy, foreign policy, dealing with the militant group ISIS, "changing" Washington, and illegal immigration.
The CNN poll also revealed that 47% of Republican voters in those states believed Trump had the best chance of winning a general election in November, almost three times the level of the next-closest candidate, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
And an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released this week also showed Trump's remarkable rise in another area. Almost 60% support of likely Republican voters nationally said they could see themselves supporting Trump, putting him behind only Carson and Rubio in that field. In June, only 32% of Republican voters said they could see themselves supporting Trump.
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