Copenhagen Climate Treaty & Climategate

Obama, Hu Climate Talk Could Spur Copenhagen

November 13, 2009

Reuters - When President Barack Obama sits down with his Chinese counterpart next week to talk climate change, it is highly unlikely they will craft a definitive plan to tackle global warming.

But the summit between the world's two biggest spewers of carbon dioxide will probably set the tone for next month's U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen.

Any progress in bridging the North-South climate divide would help lift the shroud of pessimism enveloping Copenhagen and Obama told Reuters this week he was optimistic of progress.

Conversely, a failure to advance, or any sign the big two could conspire to effectively let each other off the hook in Denmark, would probably condemn the talks to failure...

The United States has emitted more carbon into the atmosphere than any country on earth but China has since taken up the mantle as top producer of the gases blamed for warming the Earth's atmosphere. Together, they account for 40 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

So there can be little progress without cooperation between the two countries at the December 7-18 meeting in Copenhagen that is designed to succeed the Kyoto climate protocol.

"You are not only talking about the two greatest emitters but the two emitters that are iconic of the whole divide between developed and developing countries," said Julian L. Wong, Senior Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress in Washington.

Wong thinks the international climate talks are far too complicated for Obama and President Hu Jintao to hammer out a definitive agreement on climate change when they meet next week. But the two sides are expected to make announcements showing how they are engaging on renewable energy projects and research into things like electric cars and capturing carbon at power plants for storage underground. The two leaders will pledge greater cooperation on climate but specifics of any bilateral plan might be sparse.

"There will also be discussion of how to achieve some sort of agreement in Copenhagen -- something to boost global confidence -- but no major breakthroughs," said Wang Ke, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

Obama told Reuters in an interview prior to the trip that it was key the two countries reach a framework agreement other nations could buy into.

"I remain optimistic that between now and Copenhagen that we can arrive at that framework," he said, adding he would travel to Denmark next month if he saw a chance of progress.

Jennifer Morgan, director of the World Resources Institute Climate and Energy Program, said the two leaders need to show they want to go to Copenhagen to seal the deal.

"The signal President Obama and Hu Jintao sends is very vital for hopefully inspiring others to come to Copenhagen with a high level of ambition," she told a journalists' briefing.

But both leaders will also be constrained by domestic issues and policies.

Obama must be careful not to preempt Congress, or risk a backlash.

"The Senate needs to feel like it's beginning to tackle climate change itself, not because Obama boxed them in after visiting Beijing," said Michael Levi, a director at the Council on Foreign Relations.

A sweeping climate bill that would seek to reduce U.S. emissions is struggling through the congressional maze in Washington and it faces opposition across the political divide on concerns about costs for industry. But the Chinese could help Obama if they recognize Obama's domestic constraints...

Obama Urges All Nations to Fight Climate Change

November 13, 2009

The Associated Press - President Barack Obama is calling on all nations to accept responsibility for fighting climate change.

But he says he's not expecting that it will be easy to reach an agreement at a climate change summit next month in Copenhagen.

Speaking in Tokyo, Obama said nations that are the biggest emitters must set clear targets for reducing those emissions. And he said developing countries will need to take substantial actions of their own.

Obama said that since he took office, the United States has done more than it had before to fight climate change, by investing in new energy, raising efficiency standards and taking advantage of the latest scientific advances.

But he says America knows there's more work to do.

Denmark Invites 191 Leaders to UN Climate Talks

November 12, 2009

Tri-City Herald - Copenhagen, Denmark sent invitations Thursday to 191 world leaders to attend next month's U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen, officials said.

The invitations, signed by Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen, were dispatched through diplomatic channels.

"Your personal attendance is a pivotal contribution to a successful outcome" of the Dec. 7-18 conference, said the letter from Loekke Rasmussen, who will chair the talks aimed at reaching a new global accord to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to curb emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warming.

The high-level meeting of leaders at Copenhagen is expected to start Dec. 16.

"Many countries have already announced or passed significant legislation to reduce emission levels and adapt to the negative effects of climate change," Loekke Rasmussen said in the letter.

At least 40 leaders have said they plan to attend the conference, which follows two years of tough U.N.-led negotiations to draft a new climate change agreement.

Among leaders attending are British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende.

President Barack Obama has said he may come if it a deal appears possible and his presence would help clinch it. A U.S. delegate to the climate talks, Jane Lubchenco, said Thursday in Copenhagen that Obama believes an agreement next month is "critically important" and that he is "actively considering" attending the meeting.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil has indicated he might come to the conference, and a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she is keeping the date open.

Meanwhile, the European Union - which has said it hopes to lead global climate policy - said it will meet or exceed its target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 8 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2012.

One World Government? Globe May Not Be Big Enough

November 11, 2009

Washington Post - The New World Order came into being at 4:25 Tuesday afternoon.

It arrived at the Capitol (until that moment, the seat of American government) in the form of the stooped and bespectacled figure of Ban Ki-moon, who as U.N. secretary general is the de facto leader of what conspiracy theorists call the One World Government. One floor beneath the Senate chamber, Ban, a South Korean national, took his place behind a lectern bearing the Senate seal and spelled out his demands.

"I would certainly expect the Senate to take the necessary action; that's what I have encouraged the senators," he told reporters as a trio of lawmakers stood at his side. He added an admonition for the chamber to deliver "as soon as possible."

The One World Government has specific requirements, Ban added, namely a "legally binding" commitment to "25 to 40 percent greenhouse gas reduction . . . as recommended by the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."

Uh-oh. A U.N. official standing in the Capitol telling U.S. lawmakers what binding commitments intergovernmental authorities expect from them? Glenn Beck was going to burst a blood vessel.

But the man who orchestrated this putsch by the New World Order, Senate Foreign Relations Chairman John Kerry (D-Switzerland), did not appear concerned by the imagery.

He called the secretary general "Your Excellency." Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana (a Republican, but he drives a Prius) was equally deferential as he spoke of "the privilege of this distinguished visitor."

And Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) hailed Ban for "the accelerated leadership role" that the United Nations has taken. "Your vision, that in Copenhagen there can be a politically binding agreement that will lead to a legally binding agreement to follow . . . is a very reasonable, sensible and hopeful course."

Somewhere in Manhattan, Sean Hannity was tearing up his script for the night's broadcast.

Kerry invited Ban to lecture the Foreign Relations Committee, but it's not clear what the chairman hoped to gain from the photos of him standing with Ban in the Capitol's Brumidi Corridors. Indeed, it seemed quite possible that a U.N. endorsement of Kerry's climate efforts would embolden its foes, who like the world body even less than they like cap-and-trade. In the pantheon of conspiracy theories, the United Nations is right up there with the Illuminati, the Trilateral Commission, the Federal Reserve and the Council on Foreign Relations -- which, as it happens, Kerry addressed a couple of weeks ago.

Even Americans who don't come from the grassy-knoll tradition tend not to regard the United Nations with great confidence. A Gallup poll earlier this year found that 65 percent of respondents thought it was doing a bad job, compared with 26 percent who think it is doing a good job.

Ban himself is not terribly nefarious, if only because he is unknown. A Wall Street Journal poll found that 81 percent of those surveyed didn't know who he was. The others may have confused him with the Unification Church's Rev. Sun Myung Moon.

Ban's profile could become much higher, and not in a good way, if Americans start to perceive him as meddling in Senate consideration of climate legislation. Even before he stormed the Capitol, Fox News was drawing a connection between global warming talks in Copenhagen next month and One World Government.

"America, if you believe this country is great but you're not really into that whole One World Government thing, watch out," Fox News Channel's Beck warned a couple of weeks ago.

His guest, Lord Christopher Monckton of Britain, told Beck that "at Copenhagen, a treaty will be signed that will, for the first time, create a world government with powers to intervene directly in the economy and in the environmental affairs of individual nations."

Earlier on Fox News, Dick Morris informed Hannity that President Obama "believes in One World Government." And author Jerome Corsi went on Hannity's show to warn about a One World Government in which "our sovereignty would be subject to the dictates" of the United Nations and other international organizations.

The One World Government was on open display at the Capitol on Tuesday, as international U.N. staffers waited outside the room where Ban spoke to the senators. The secretary general had come with his own world government (armed?) security detail, who stood alongside the Capitol police.

Ban, wearing a gold U.N. lapel pin, unfolded his speech.

"Less than a month from now, the leaders of the world will gather in Copenhagen," he said. "They must conclude a robust global agreement," that is "comprehensive, binding, equitable and fair."

Speaking softly but firmly, the South Korean cautioned the Americans that "the world is not standing still," and that "all the eyes of the world are looking to the United States."

After a few minutes, Kerry cut off questioning.

"Folks, the secretary general has to get to the airport."

Ban needed to catch the U.S. Airways shuttle to New York. The One World Government Air Force isn't what it's cracked up to be.

Cost of Extra Year's Climate Inaction $500 Billion: IEA

November 11, 2009

Reuters - The world will have to spend an extra $500 billion to cut carbon emissions for each year it delays implementing a major assault on global warming, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

At United Nations climate talks in Barcelona last week negotiators from developed countries said the world would need an extra six to 12 months to agree a legally binding, global deal to cut carbon emissions beyond a planned December deadline.

The IEA, energy adviser to 28 industrialized countries, said the world must act urgently to put greenhouse gases on a track to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius...

Climate Takes Back Seat at APEC

November 11, 2009

Reuters - With little prospect of any new climate change initiatives emerging at an APEC meeting in Singapore this weekend, the climate agenda might instead focus on liberalizing trade in green goods and services.

Keeping the fragile global economic recovery on track will dominate the talks at the 21-member Pacific rim group meeting, but climate change is also expected to feature prominently with just weeks to go before a major U.N. climate gathering.

Analysts, however, say the leaders will offer no major initiatives to give the Copenhagen talks a much needed push.

The United Nations wants the December 7-18 Copenhagen meeting to yield a broader, and tougher, legally binding agreement by all nations to fight climate change but negotiations have largely stalled, dimming hopes of success.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum gathering represents one of the final opportunities ahead of Copenhagen for world leaders to try to overcome differences on the shape of a broader climate pact to fight rising seas, more chaotic weather and threats to crops and livelihoods.

APEC, which ranges from economic giants the United States, Japan and China to oil-rich Brunei, accounts for more than 40 percent of world trade and over 60 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

"I wouldn't really expect major progress. I think it's going to be overwhelmed by trade, financing," said Changhua Wu, Greater China Director for think tank The Climate Group.

She pointed to the depressing mood that had settled over the Copenhagen talks process and the huge range of unresolved issues.

"I think we could see greater emphasis on macroeconomic stability in general this year," said Leong Wai Ho, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore.

But he pointed to the region being prone to costly climate disasters such as typhoons and storm surges and the predicted greater intensity of such disasters as the planet warms.

Recent storms in Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines have killed hundreds, destroyed roads, bridges, farms and homes, lowered farm output and pushed up food prices.

"This link suggests that, despite the distraction from the global economic crisis, APEC leaders are widely expected to call for further cuts in energy consumption amongst themselves at the Singapore meeting," Leong told Reuters.

Wu and other analysts said APEC might try to boost regional trade in clean-energy products and services.

"Our argument would be if you want to push the economy into gear again a very good way to do that would be through green investments because they normally imply a lot of jobs," said Kim Carstensen, the head of conservation group WWF's global climate initiative.

China, South Korea and Japan have large spending plans to boost the clean-energy sector and are keen to boost global market share. The United States is also pushing for greater market access for its green goods...

Energy Watchdog Urges Deal on Climate

November 11, 2009

Wall Street Journal - The International Energy Agency used its annual World Energy Outlook as a platform to argue the case for a major international agreement on stemming global warming, saying it is needed to avoid sharply higher oil and gas importing costs as well as climate change.

The IEA suggested a strong agreement at a summit in Copenhagen next month could help make the difference between the Earth's temperatures rising as much as six degrees Celsius -- a figure at the high end of most experts' estimates -- and as little as two degrees. A deal on emissions could reduce world oil demand by 16 million barrels a day by 2030, the agency projects.

Failure to reach such a deal could raise the U.S.'s cost to import oil and gas from 1% to 2% of its gross domestic product, it said.

The IEA's energy-related forecasts generally carry weight with industrialized nations. But a grand agreement to slash global greenhouse-gas emissions to the extent the IEA is calling for appears unlikely. Countries from the U.S. to China are fighting over who should foot what share of the cleanup bill.

In the report, the IEA also scaled back its near-term forecast for global oil consumption, predicting it would grow to just 88 million barrels a day over the next five years instead of the 94 million barrels it was forecasting a year ago. That partly reflects increased energy-efficiency measures as well as the effects of the global recession.

IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said the agency expects oil prices to climb to more than $100 a barrel by 2015 and to $190 a barrel by 2030 because of the challenges the oil industry faces in finding new resources to meet rising demand.

The energy industry, responsible for two-thirds of all emissions, is divided over a climate-change pact. Some companies want to remove regulatory uncertainty that has slowed the shift to low-carbon technologies, while others say new mandates would prove too expensive.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D., Mass), said Tuesday that Democrats are planning to send a climate-legislation framework to Copenhagen to assure negotiators of Washington's commitment to a treaty.

The IEA's forecast on the effect of a deal depends on it limiting the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million of CO2 equivalent -- the "450 scenario." A number of climate-change activists say even that figure is too high -- because it is higher than the current level of about 380 parts per million. Countries including the U.S. back the 450 scenario on paper, but few analysts expect an agreement in Copenhagen to be that strict -- if agreement is reached at all.

To achieve that standard, demand for fossil fuels would have to peak by 2020, and a "revolution" occur in electricity generation, with a shift away from coal to natural gas and renewables, the IEA said. It said the price of carbon in Western countries would also have to rise -- to $50 for the right to emit one ton of carbon dioxide by 2020 and to $110 a ton by 2030, compared to less than $20 in the current European cap-and-trade market.

Big change would also be needed in transportation: The number of electric or hybrid cars would have to rise to 60 of every 100 sold by 2030, from just one in 100 currently, the IEA said.

Obama Will Go to Copenhagen to Clinch Deal

November 9, 2009

Reuters - U.S. President Barack Obama said on Monday he would travel to Copenhagen next month if a climate summit is on the verge of a framework deal and his presence there will make a difference in clinching it.

It was Obama's strongest assertion yet he may go to Denmark in mid-December to help secure a new global compact in the fight against climate change, a process clouded by disputes between rich countries and big developing nations.

"If I am confident that all of the countries involved are bargaining in good faith and we are on the brink of a meaningful agreement and my presence in Copenhagen will make a difference in tipping us over edge, then certainly that's something that I will do," Obama told Reuters in an interview.

Obama, who has faced resistance from opposition Republicans and even some fellow Democrats to setting caps on greenhouse gas emissions, acknowledged that the U.S. Senate would not pass climate change legislation before Copenhagen.

Delays in the U.S. Congress have rankled European allies and added to questions about how significant the deal that emerges from Copenhagen will ultimately be.

But Obama insisted he remained optimistic that the December 7-18 summit could yield a "framework" agreement.

"I think the question is can we create a set of principles, building blocks, that allow for ongoing and continuing progress on the issue and that's something I'm confident we can achieve," he said.

Obama made clear he considers his talks with Chinese leaders during an Asia tour later this month to be crucial in clearing remaining obstacles to some kind of accord.

"The key now is for the United States and China, the two largest emitters in the world, is to be able to come up with a framework that, along with other big emitters like the Europeans and those countries that are projected to be large emitters in the future, like India, can all buy into," he said.