Swine Flu & Other Pandemics

U.S. Estimates 22 Million Had Swine Flu, 3,900 Dead

November 12, 2009

Reuters - New estimates suggest the pandemic of H1N1 flu is far worse than an average influenza season, with at least 22 million infections and 3,900 deaths, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The new estimates are extrapolations based on detailed data for April-October from 10 states and do not reflect a worsening of the pandemic, the CDC stressed. Following are the figures released by the agency, with the median number of cases followed by the full potential range:

ESTIMATED CASES BY AGE

* 0-17 years - 8 million estimated cases, with a range of 5 million to 13 million
* 18-64 years - 12 million estimated cases, range 7 million to 18 million
* 65 and older - 2 million estimated cases, range 1 million to 3 million
* Total cases - 22 million, range 14 million to 34 million

ESTIMATED HOSPITALIZATIONS

* 0-17 years - 36,000 hospitalizations, with an estimated range from 23,000 to 57,000
* 18-64 years - 53,000 hospitalizations, range 34,000 to 83,000
* 65 and older - 9,000 hospitalizations, range 6,000 to 14,000
* Total hospitalizations - 98,000, range 63,000 to 153,000

ESTIMATED DEATHS

* 0-17 years - 540 deaths with a potential range of 300 to 800
* 18-64 years - 2,920 deaths, range 1,900 to 4,600
* 65 years and older - 440 deaths, range 300 to 700
* Total deaths - 3,900 deaths, range 2,500 to 6,100

A Day in the Life of a Pandemic

On Thursday it was 63,500 swine flu doses, and hundreds of thousands in need. So who will get the vaccine? Inside the world of the state officials and doctors who must make that sobering choice, and of the worried people clamoring to be next in line.

November 8, 2009

Boston Globe - The e-mail landed at 9:35 Thursday morning on a computer screen deep inside an austere state building perched above the Forest Hills transit station:

Variety of vaccines “Subject: H1N1 Vaccine Allocation Balance Report.’’

The news, this day, was good. A bumper supply of the season’s most precious commodity, swine flu vaccine, was bound for Massachusetts. To be precise, 63,500 doses.

But who would get it?

Never before have public health agencies, scientists, and drug makers attempted to brew so much vaccine - 250 million doses nationally - and deliver it in so little time. In the race between virus and vaccine, the virus has the head start, fostering a demand for flu shots and spray with few parallels in medical history.

In a drab office crammed with steel desks, two state workers began to parcel out the vaccine like modern-day Solomons, making decisions that would reverberate through every doctor’s office, health center, and hospital in the state and help determine which patients, this week, would be lucky enough to get the vaccine.

“Can you bring everybody up to at least 7 percent?’’ Donna Lazorik plaintively asked a colleague glued to an Excel spreadsheet. That might be the best they could hope for on this day, to give every physician or clinic enough shots to ensure at least 7 percent of children under 3 would be vaccinated.

For the first time since the frenzied hunt for swine flu inoculations began last month, the state Department of Public Health agreed to let a reporter observe the divvying up of vaccine to health providers. It is a task that is equal parts science and art, supply and demand...

H1N1 Vaccine Production May Be Sped Up

November 6, 2009

UPI - U.S. health officials say they are working with vaccine producers to step up production speed and bring the H1N1 vaccine more quickly to targeted groups.

Public health officials who briefed Congress Wednesday said they believe there will not enough H1N1 vaccine to meet the needs of high-priority population groups until at least December, The Washington Post reported.

"Current projections show that 62 percent of Alabama's vaccine will not be available until after December 1," Donald E. Williamson, Alabama's health officer, said.

Vaccine makers have been able to tweak growth of the medicine, which grows slowly in fertilized chicken eggs, and say they expect to be able to produce two or three doses from each egg. In the summer, production was at 0.2 to 0.5 doses per egg, said Robin Robinson, director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Government officials said they have asked vaccine makers to put their production into multi-dose vials, which are five times quicker to fill than single does vials.

Targeted segments of the population are pregnant women, health workers, parents of newborns, those 6 months through 24 years old and those ages 25 to 64 who are chronically ill, the newspaper reported.

The federal government ordered 250 million doses of vaccine for the nation's 308 million residents. The targeted groups include 159 million people.

The government has made 32.3 million doses of pandemic vaccine available to states and cities.

WHO: H1N1 Differs from Seasonal Flu

November 5, 2009

UPI - The H1N1 influenza virus should not be treated like a seasonal flu strain, a World Health Organization doctor said Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland.

Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the U.N. health agency's point man on H1N1, said it is now the dominant flu strain around the world, CNN reported. He said it is spreading quickly in many regions.

Also Thursday, an advocacy organization said at least seven members of a remote tribe living in the Amazon rainforest have died of H1N1.

While H1N1, commonly known as swine flu, has much in common with seasonal flu -- including the quick recovery of most of those who become sick -- there are important differences, Fukuda warned.

H1N1 continues to be transmitted during the summer. Younger healthy adults are also more likely to become seriously ill and to die, while seasonal flu tends to kill the elderly, the very young and people with other health problems.

The H1N1 strain first appeared in Mexico in April.

H1N1 to Cause More Deaths in Northern Winter: WHO

November 5, 2009

Reuters - The H1N1 swine flu virus has picked up steam in the northern hemisphere and is expected to cause more serious infections and deaths as cold weather sets in, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday.

But the virus is not known to have mutated, including in people infected in a large outbreak in Ukraine, meaning that the current pandemic vaccines are expected to confer "good protection," it said in a statement.

Mexico is reporting more H1N1 cases than early in the pandemic, which began in April, and the United States shows higher levels of flu-like illness than in past years, top WHO flu expert Keiji Fukuda said. Swine flu is also on the rise in Europe and Central Asia.

"We anticipate seeing continued or increased activity during the winter period in the northern hemisphere. This also means that we expect to see continued reports of serious cases and deaths," Fukuda told a news conference. "At WHO we remain quite concerned about the pattern that we are seeing."

Most people recover without specialized medical care for symptoms such as fever, cough and sore throat, but pregnant women and people with underlying chronic conditions like asthma are at higher risk of potentially fatal complications, he said.

At least 5,712 people worldwide have died from swine flu, which is now present in virtually every country, according to the United Nations agency. Most serious illness and fatalities occur in patients younger than 65, a different pattern to seasonal influenza, which traditionally strikes the elderly.

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control said that as of Wednesday, some 500,000 cases of acute respiratory illness and 86 related deaths had been reported in Ukraine.

Pandemic vaccines given to millions of people in some 20 countries in recent weeks have shown them to be "very safe," providing protection with no unusual side effects, Fukuda said.

However, the WHO has yet to receive some 200 million vaccine doses donated by 11 countries, which are intended for distribution in 95 poor countries lacking supplies, he said.

"Vaccine companies out there are producing as much vaccine as quickly as possible. Much of the vaccine has been allocated to different countries on the basis of contracts," he added, referring to deals between drugmakers and governments.

GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi-Aventis are among some 25 companies producing pandemic vaccine.

The known cases of resistance to antiviral drugs have been "isolated and infrequent," according to Fukuda.

"We see no evidence at all that there is widespread occurrence of antiviral resistance," he said.

Antiviral drugs such as oseltamivir, marketed by Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding as Tamiflu, are considered the frontline drug against the H1N1 virus...

Iowa Cat Is First to Get Swine Flu

November 4, 2009

UPI - A cat in Iowa has become the first feline known to be diagnosed with H1N1, The American Veterinary Medical Association said Wednesday.

The 13-year-old cat tested positive for the H1N1 virus at the Lloyd Veterinary Medical Center at Iowa State University's College of Veterinary Medicine, the state health department said. The cat, which has recovered, is believed to have contracted it from people in the house where it lives.

"Two of the three members of the family that owns the pet had suffered from influenza-like illness before the cat became ill," Dr. Ann Garvey, the state's public health veterinarian, said. "This is not completely unexpected, as other strains of influenza have been found in cats in the past."

The department would not say where the family lives.

Experts say people can help keep pets healthy by washing hands, covering coughs and sneezes and staying away from the pets while ill with flu-like symptoms. If your pet shows signs of respiratory illness, you should contact your veterinarian.

Polly Carver-Kimm, a health department spokeswoman, told The Des Moines Register it is not likely a person would get H1N1 from a pet.

"Animal-to-human transmission is very rare," she said. "It's much more likely for an animal to catch it from a human."

H1N1 has also been found in pigs, birds and ferrets.

Pregnant Women Should Get Flu Shot as Winter Bites: WHO

November 3, 2009

Reuters - Pregnant women and other people at high risk should be vaccinated against the H1N1 swine flu virus as the cold weather begins to bite in the northern hemisphere, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Tuesday.

It voiced concern that some vulnerable people are shying away from the pandemic vaccine, which the WHO stressed had not caused any unusual side effects in hundreds of thousands of people to have received it worldwide so far.

"Certainly the fact that the vaccine isn't being used by those who would have access to it and who would be in priority risk groups is of concern, yes," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl told a news briefing.

At least 5,712 people have died from the swine flu virus, according to the United Nations agency. Health workers, pregnant women and people with conditions such as asthma are deemed at greatest risk and should be top priority for getting the shot.

"We have seen many, many instances of people in high risk groups such as pregnant women who have very severe disease or outcomes. These outcomes could be in all likelihood avoided if one were to get vaccinated," Hartl said.

A flu epidemic in Ukraine -- with more than 250,000 cases and 70 deaths from acute respiratory illness reported so far by national authorities on Tuesday -- may be an "early warning signal" as winter sets in, the WHO said.

"The outbreak in Ukraine may be indicative of how the virus can behave in the northern hemisphere during the winter season, particularly in health care settings typically found in Eastern Europe," the WHO said in a statement.

The former Soviet republic closed schools, banned public meetings and restricted travel last Friday for three weeks.

HITTING THE YOUNG

Unlike seasonal flu, which is most dangerous to the elderly, H1N1 is hitting younger adults and children especially hard.

The WHO recommends a single vaccine dose for protecting adults against H1N1. It has also urged governments to consider giving a single dose to as many children under age 10 as possible, but says more research is needed into child dosages.

In the United States, studies show that children under the age of 9 will need two doses of the vaccine to be fully protected, officials there said on Monday [ID:nN02462530].

Parts of North America and Europe have already crossed the epidemic threshold, ahead of the normal influenza season which peaks in January-February for the northern hemisphere, WHO says.

"There is substantial influenza activity and we would expect to see more. Certainly the indications are that this will become something quite widespread across the northern hemisphere temperate zones as we go forward through the late autumn and winter," Hartl said.

But the WHO is reluctant to speak of a "second wave" of outbreaks, as the virus may have just been less active in the summer months, he said. Colder weather favours its spread.

Countries from China to the United States have rolled out vaccination campaigns and the rare side effects have been mild, in line with those caused by seasonal flu vaccines, Hartl said.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) and Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) are among some 25 drugmakers companies producing pandemic vaccine.

The Reversal of Reality: Publicizing H1N1 Vaccine Facts as Myths and Myths as Facts

November 4, 2009

Prevent Disease - There are literally hundreds of mainline reports on a weekly basis which are reversing the reality of facts and myths on the pandemic.

How deflating it must be, for conventional medicine and public health officials to feel the noose tightening around their unscientific balloon of unfounded vaccine principles. Dovetailing media reports which attempt to counter H1N1 vaccine opposition are exploding across the mainstream media in a frantic effort to stabilize criticism.

In the past few months, it has been difficult to come across any H1N1 vaccine "facts list" or FAQs that does not attempt to dispel supposed myths and conspiracy theories about the vaccine. Ironically, the majority of myths and theories they attempt to dispel are usually facts and scientific truths which public health officials refuse to acknowledge. In addition, they ensure that their version of "facts" are filled with blatant lies and disinformation.

For example, after a quick review of flu.gov myths, we find they don't waste any time in stating facts as myths and vice-versa. "It is safe for children and pregnant women to receive a flu vaccine that contains thimerosal," they claim.

Thimerosal has damaging effects on cells of the nervous and immune systems.

The flu.gov website also states that "there is no convincing evidence of harm caused by the low doses of thimerosal in vaccines, except for minor reactions like redness and swelling at the injection site." Micromolar and even nanomolar concentrations have been found to cause significant damage.

Is a nanomolar dose low enough for flu.gov? Perhaps all 76 of these studies which document the adverse effects of thimerosal would also be myths according to government officials. Notice flu.gov provides no links to any scientific evidence to justify their claims.

In a interview below on "The Doctors" show, Assistant Surgeon General, Anne Schuchat's fails to properly address the reality of H1N1 vaccinations and instead focuses on supposed "myths"...

Poll: Almost Half of Americans Reject Swine Flu Vaccine

November 4, 2009

McClatchy Newspapers - Despite a rising nationwide toll of sickness caused by the H1N1 flu virus and an intensive push by the government to have people vaccinated for it, almost half of Americans say they aren't likely to get the vaccine, according to a new McClatchy-Ipsos poll...

10 Million H1N1 Doses Due Next Week

November 1, 2009

UPI - H1N1 vaccine shortages could be eased next week with the arrival of 10 million new doses of vaccine, U.S. officials said.

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said Saturday that manufacturers are shipping vaccine seven days a week. Top White House adviser David Axelrod said Sunday that the United States will have an ample supply of vaccine "in very short order," the Los Angeles Times reported Sunday.

Administration officials had said 40 million doses of H1N1 vaccine would be available and vaccine makers would be shipping 20 million doses each week by the end of October. Sebelius said Saturday that the estimates were based on "overly optimistic" projections by vaccine makers.

She reiterated the United States intends to give 10 percent of its vaccine supply to developing countries but not until people identified as belong to priority groups in the United States have been vaccinated.

"The first priority is to get the vaccine to the American people," she told CNN.