The Collapse of the U.S. Economy

Key Indicators of a New Depression

June 5, 2010

Neeraj Chaudhary, Euro Pacific Capital - With the mainstream media focusing on the country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. But I will argue that a look under the proverbial hood reveals a very different picture. I believe the data shows that the US economy is badly damaged, and a modern-day depression has begun. In fact, just as World War I was originally called The Great War (and was retroactively renamed after World War II), Peter Schiff has said that one day the world will refer to the 1929-41 era as Great Depression I, and the current period as Great Depression II.

For starters, look at unemployment. During Great Depression I, unemployment broke 25%. If government statistics are taken at face value, the current unemployment rate is 9.9%, but a closer look reveals that the broadest measure of unemployment is currently at 20% — and rising. So, today’s numbers are in the same ballpark as the ’30s even though the federal government is using unprecedented measures to keep the economy afloat. Remember, in Great Depression I, FDR never ran a deficit nearly as large as President Obama’s. Moreover, the Federal Reserve of the 1930s still had a gold standard with which to contend, while today’s Fed has increased the monetary base with impunity. Yet even with all that intervention, unemployment figures still indicate that we have entered depression territory.

What is demoralizing to an unemployed person is not simply being let go, it is being unable to find a new job for an extended period of time. And this is where Great Depression II really rears its ugly head. According to the US federal government's own data, the median duration of unemployment is now over five months — and rising. This is the highest it's been since the BLS started compiling this statistic in 1965. As workers start to go this long without jobs, they eat into their savings. Eventually — and especially in a country with a savings rate as low as ours and debt as high as ours — they run out of cushion and hit the street. Formerly middle-class people have to make decisions never thought possible: do I eat in a shelter or go hungry in my home?

It's no surprise, then, that about 40 million people — or one out of every eight Americans — are receiving food stamps in Great Depression II. During the height of Great Depression I, the rate was just one out of thirty-five Americans. Even with the stimulus programs, Great Depression II is actually worse on this measure than Great Depression I — and the USDA estimates that the program could grow by another 50%. Soon, out of ten people you know, one may depend on federal assistance for daily survival.

Despite tax credits that have created a rush of purchases this spring, housing is in just as bad shape. During Great Depression I, home prices dropped some 15% from their pre-depression peak (achieved in 1925). In Great Depression II, housing is down at least 30% from the pre-depression peak (achieved in 2005), with some markets down more than 50%.

So, many of the people expected to keep making mortgage payments as they eat tuna fish to stay alive will be paying double their home's resale value. This is a tremendous incentive to walk away, with disastrous consequences for the country's social fabric in these trying times. Empty homes breed crime and vandalism, encouraging more to flee in a negative feedback loop. Moreover, the many 'walkaways' may create a class of Americans with ruined credit — right when many employers have started checking credit scores before hiring.

Even more worrisome, the present drop in home prices is against a backdrop of price inflation. In Great Depression I, our grandparents may have lost value in their home, but everyday goods (milk, diapers, automobiles, etc.) got cheaper at the same time. That made their savings 'cushion' deeper when they needed it most. Today, as home equity (now our main store of savings) declines, prices for consumer goods are rising. It's a tight squeeze indeed.

From jobs to food to the roofs over our heads, the current period of economic turmoil is at least as bad as the First Great Depression, whether or not the financial media wishes to acknowledge it. The main difference is that unlike in the '30s, the US dollar is now the world's fiat reserve currency, so we are able to push our problems overseas for awhile. The plight of the rural Chinese is really our plight — we are living lavishly on the wealth they create. Were they to quit this dastardly arrangement, the full effects of Great Depression II would be felt in America.

By contrast, in Great Depression I, the US was on the gold standard like everyone else, which forced us to live within our means. This, in turn, made it easier to recognize that the economy was in decline and changes had to be made.

Unfortunately, because of the responses of the Administration and the Federal Reserve, which I believe to be deeply misguided, I remain concerned that Great Depression II could develop into something far more devastating than its predecessor, something that other countries in the world have experienced but was thought impossible in the United States: a hyperinflationary depression. As bad as the current downturn has been, inflation would make it immeasurably worse. It would require an honest accounting of the problems we face today to avert the disaster we see coming tomorrow.

Neeraj Chaudhary is an Investment Consultant in the Los Angeles branch of Euro Pacific Capital. He shares Peter Schiff's views on the US dollar, the importance of the gold standard, and the rise of Asia as an economic power. He holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.

Stocks Fall Sharply Following Disappointing Employment Report

Stock fall sharply following disappointing employment report; euro falls to 4-year low

June 4, 2010

AP - Investors went back to selling stocks sharply lower Friday after the Labor Department's disappointing news that hiring remains weak. Interest rates fell sharply as investors moved their money into the safety of Treasury bonds and notes.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped nearly 260 points and fell below 10,000. All the major indexes were down more than 2 percent. Losses were exacerbated by new concerns about Europe's debt problems.

Retailers were among the hardest hit stocks as investors bet that a weak job market would discourage consumers from spending. Financial stocks also fell sharply on concerns that borrowers would continue having problems paying their bills. Banks were further hurt by worries about their vulnerability to Europe's increasing troubles.

The government's May jobs report was an unpleasant surprise for the market. The Labor Department said private employers hired just 41,000 jobs in May, down dramatically from 218,000 in April and the lowest number since January. The news made it clear that the economic recovery isn't picking up the momentum that investors have been looking for.

The government also said 431,000 jobs overall were created last month, but most of those jobs, 411,000, came from the government's hiring of temporary census workers. The overall number also fell short of expectations. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast employers would add 513,000 jobs.

"People are looking for one turning point," Daniel Penrod, senior industry analyst for the California Credit Union League, said of the monthly jobs report. "That's not realistic. This growth will be much slower and more gradual than in the past."

The unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent in April. That was slightly better than the 9.8 percent unemployment rate economists had forecast.

The jobs report was the latest in a series of reports this week that show the economy isn't as robust as hoped. But investors had become a little more optimistic in the past few days and had sent stocks higher as they bet on stronger job growth in May.

The reality of the report erased that optimism.

"It's almost as if the worst fears of the market were realized, at least in this one report," said Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

The jobs report and a string of other economic numbers that were unimpressive have made investors more tentative about the economy, Sparks said.

Investors were worried that employers' reluctance to hire would further hurt consumers. Investors were already nervous about consumer spending after retailers reported Thursday that their sales were sluggish during May. Clothing retailer stocks were among the big losers after the jobs report Friday as investors bet that shoppers would stick to buying only necessities.

Credit card companies and regional banks also fell sharply ...

Oil prices fell sharply as investors pulled out of commodities, which like stocks are seen as risky assets. Investors were also wondering whether demand might fall if the economy is weaker than expected. Benchmark crude dropped $2.49 to $72.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.