February 20, 2011

The Problem Is Not Public Employee Wages (Federal Civil Servants and Public School Systems Being the Exception), It Is the Pensions and Benefits

As the stock market bubbled ever higher in the 1990s, managers of pension plans ratcheted up their expectations of future "permanent" growth, giving politicos the go-ahead to ramp up pension pay-outs. In essence, pension plans, which were once constructed on the long-term expectation of 4-5% returns on capital, now based future earnings and pay-outs on the stock market's "average return" of 8% annually. As any reasonable person might have foreseen, the bubblicious stock market of the 1990s was not a "new permanent plateau" but, in fact, a bubble which imploded. Real returns in the past decade have been literally half what was anticipated and, as a result, state and local governments are having to make up the difference with cash out of general fund tax receipts. As tax receipts plummet in the "slow-growth," jobless recession, then state and local governments are forced to gut their programs to fund the oligarchy / fiefdom's pension promises. - Blame the Fed for the Pension Crisis Because They Engineered It, Seeking Alpha, May 24, 2010

Having public pensions being so superior and far better than private retirement savings — and the inevitable backlash this would produce — is one of the unavoidable adjustments similar to falling house prices. This huge gap of public employees being so much better compensated than private employees became visible about a year ago even in just ordinary news reports in the papers, for those that read widely. Just like falling house prices, this will be adjusted, sometimes by drastic action (similar to a foreclosure being drastic). The bottom line is that taxpayers cannot be expected to make public employees far more comfortable than themselves. - Hal Horvath, Pension Envy, Pension Crisis, On Point Radio, July 28, 2010

Poor Pension Math

Despite public pension lobbyists' claims to the contrary, here's the true cost of pension plans to taxpayers.

February 17, 2011

Governing.com - One of the major public pension funds' spin-meisters recently wrote a letter to The Wall Street Journal, seeking to counter the claims that taxpayers bear the brunt of costs of public pension funds.

The argument, which has made the rounds through the public pension community, is that public employers — and hence the taxpayers — only contribute about 20 percent of the cost of public pensions. The rest, she claimed, is paid for by the employees and investment income. It's as if investment income grew from some kind of magic beans that are peculiar only to public pension funds, and simply wouldn't exist if we didn't have pension funds to create money out of thin air.

This idea started circulating several years ago, and it has oddly gained a life of its own despite its intellectual dishonesty. Following the old adage that repeating the same lie enough times will make people believe it, labor union and pension plan spin-doctors have taken long-term accounting information and added up the numbers using second-grade math. But they completely ignored the time value of money as well as the fiduciary concept that interest (and investment income) follows principal.

Time value of money. The second-grade math works like this: Take all the contributions made by public employers since their pension plans were started 100 years ago, then ignore inflation, discount rates and the time value of money. Add up the historical employee contributions in nominal dollars. Add up the cumulative investment income. Voila! It turns out that Einstein's "miracle of compound interest" works: That darned investment income grew in value. My gosh! It would seem that the magic beans are what pay for pensions, and apparently this has no relationship to who bought the beans and who planted, watered and cultivated them — and most importantly, who insured the crop.

The logical corollary of this line of thinking is that today's dollar of employer contributions is worth no more and no less than yesterday's. If that is the case, then the rational approach of all public employers would be to revert to pay-as-you-go financing so that they can optimize the value of their tax receipts which can be put to better work almost anywhere else but in a pension fund where they apparently get no credit for the employer.

Interest follows principal. Third-graders know that principal (their money) earns interest. That's why we take them to the bank to open a savings account, right? That's why we open 529 college savings plans for them, right? So it follows that interest is directly related to the contributions made by the respective donors, the employer and the employees.

Employers could invest elsewhere. It’s not as if pension funds are the only place a public employer could invest its money. Although the investment returns of pension funds should earn more over time than a state or municipal general fund that invests only in government bonds, a risk-free rate in U.S. treasuries (just like their bond sinking funds and debt service reserves) would earn over half the investment yield of a diversified pension fund, so the idea that employer contributions earn zero is ludicrous.

If pension funds want to take credit for their contribution to investment income, it would be fair and informative for them to separate out and analyze the portion of their cumulative earnings that exceeds the risk-free rate. Over the past 20, 30 and 84 years, this would be a substantial accumulation that exceeds what most government employers would have earned otherwise. Since 2000, however, the risk-adjusted returns from the public pension portfolios have been negative, which accounts for much of today's unfunded liabilities for irrevocable benefits awarded in that era.

Dual discount rates are hypocritical. Pension advocates lobby the Governmental Accounting Standards Board to use the expected return on investments to discount liabilities for reporting employers' liabilities. How can they then turn around and suggest that we discount previous contributions by employers at zero when calculating the share of costs paid by employers? These are the same people who scream loudly when academic financial economists suggest a lower discount rate of 4 or 5 percent rather than today's 7 or 8 percent actuarial conventions. Try discounting tomorrow's pension costs using a zero percent discount rate! You'll see national unfunded liabilities that make the "risk-free" projections look like small change.

Unfunded liabilities don't lie. To see how flimsy this line of logic is, ask yourself who will pay for the unfunded liabilities now that the investment returns of the pension funds failed to meet their actuarial expectations? Will the investment portfolio managers write checks to the retirees? Will the current employees? Has the pension fund asserting this claim sent bills for its unfunded liabilities to these parties? No, it will be the public employers and ultimately the taxpayers who will either face higher taxes or reduced services. Today, taxpayers nationwide are on the hook for around $700 billion, and that's just for unfunded pension liabilities of state and local pension plans, if my calculations using today's prevailing pension portfolio valuations and conventional discount rates are reasonably accurate.

The 20 percent VEBA solution. If unions want to start a plan in which public employers can limit their contributions and obligations to 20 percent of the total cost, that can easily be done through a VEBA (voluntary employee beneficiary association) that adjusts benefits downward when markets underperform and funding ratios are substandard. Every public employer and taxpayer group in America would jump at the chance to limit their financial exposure to that level, and the pension crisis would end tomorrow. That's just what happened when General Motors declared bankruptcy and left employees holding the investment and retirement risks in their VEBA plan.

The honest approach. Public pension plans should differentiate themselves from the private sector by calling attention to the much-higher share of real costs that public employees bear. On average, public employees pay a significant share of the "normal cost" of their pensions, unlike their counterparts in the private sector whose plans are "non-contributory" for employees. They don't pay much if anything toward the unfunded liabilities which remain the taxpayers' obligation, but that may change quickly as the bills come due and financially stretched public employers begin to demand cost-sharing of the unfunded liabilities. Instead of stretching their facts, the pension proponents should work harder to require public employees to bear one half of the total costs of their pensions and retiree medical benefits. That would put an end to the debate about who foots the bills.

Click to Enlarge
  • In 2009, the average wage for the nation's 108 million private sector workers was $50,082.

  • In 2009, the average wage for the nation's two million federal civilian workers was $79,197.

  • In 2008, the average salary for federal civilian workers in Frederick County was $73,060

  • In 2008, the average salary for local government workers in Frederick County was $45,344.

  • In 2008, the average salary for state government workers in Frederick County was $42,120.

  • In 2008, the average salary for private sector workers in Frederick County was $42,380.

  • In 2009, the average salary for public teachers in Frederick County was $67,150.

What is the average teacher salary in each state?
Salaries for Faculty of State Universities Roughly $1 out of every $8 Maryland pays in pension benefits will go to Montgomery County teachers in fiscal 2011, as promised increases in salary and benefits have almost tripled teacher pension costs in the past decade. Ballooning teacher pensions will cost Maryland roughly $924 million in fiscal 2011, up 165% from $348 million in 2002. Maryland's total pension contributions -- including state employees, police, judges, lawmakers and teachers -- will add up to $1.4 billion for fiscal 2011, with Montgomery teachers getting roughly $181 million of that. - Montgomery teacher pensions cost Md. $181 million, Examiner.com, November 23, 2010

NOTICE THE SIMILARITY IN THE PAY SCALES ABOVE AND BELOW.

2011 Federal Pay Scale Tables (GS)

Saving to Inve$t - Following President Obama’s Federal employee pay freeze, 2011 GS tables remain the same as 2010. This includes the special base rates for GS law enforcement officers (GL) at GS grades 3 through 10. Unfortunately this means that the proposed raises discussed in previous updates below will not come to pass in 2011. The latest table is shown below, with rates effective from January 2011.

2011 Federal GS Pay table by Grade

In 1953, about 75 percent of Federal employees had a GS level of 7 or below. By 2009, in contrast, more than 70 percent of the workforce was GS 8 or higher.

The General Schedule consists of 15 pay grades and 10 steps within those pay grades. GS grades 1 through 7 denote entry-level positions, while grades 8 through 12 mark mid-level positions and grades 13 through 15 are top-level and management positions. The General Schedule also incorporates locality pay adjustments to account for cost-of-living differences across the country and overseas.


Pay Scales at TSA (2010)

From the Transportation Security Agency Website

We are unique among our fellow Federal employees because we do not use the standard GS grading system you may be familiar with. We use an "SV" grading system, which is a system of discrete grades with pay ranges that differ from GS pay ranges. These discrete grades, which are identified by letters rather than numbers, have minimum and maximum rates.

In the table below, we show the ranges for each pay band.

Pay Band Minimum Maximum
A $17,083 $24,977
B $19,570 $28,546
C $22,167 $33,303
D $25,518 $38,277
E $29,302 $44,007
F $33,627 $50,494
G $39,358 $60,982
H $48,007 $74,390
I $58,495 $90,717
J $71,364 $110,612
K $85,311 $132,237
L $101,962 $155,500
M $120,236 $155,500

The above rates are basic pay rates and do not include locality pay. 2010 basic pay rates are limited to $155,500. 2010 adjusted pay rates (base pay plus locality) are limited to $172,550.

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