December 10, 2015

WIU Has Accurately Predicted the Next President Since 1975: Mock Election Predicts Sen. Bernie Sanders as President and Martin O'Malley as Vice President

According to a Tyndal report, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, unsurprisingly, is the most-covered candidate in the race. In fact, he alone has gotten more airtime (234 minutes) than the entire Democratic field (226 minutes). What is remarkable, according to the report, is that Democrat Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who actually is running and polled well for much of the summer and fall, has gotten the least airtime among all candidates (10 minutes), making it only around 4% of the coverage. The report uncovered that CBS and NBC made up over nine of those minutes, while ABC News devoted less than one minute of coverage to Bernie Sanders for all of 2015. Trump is currently polling at 34% among GOP, Sanders is currently polling at 33% among Democrats. The percentage of Americans who identify as Democrats is 32% compared to only 23% of Republicans, which means Bernie has many more supporters than Trump. The GOP needs 40% of the Latino vote to win. Over three-fourths of Hispanic Americans have an unfavorable opinion of the outspoken billionaire, according to the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) survey. [Source]

This University Already Knows Our Next President

December 9, 2015

Refinery29 - Though there's no way to know exactly how Americans will vote in the 2016 elections, one university has a perfect record when it comes to predicting presidential outcomes.

Western Illinois University (WIU) has correctly prognosticated each president since 1975, and it's got some ideas about next year's contest, too. According to the university's mock election, the 45th president of the United States will be Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who's running as a Democrat in 2016. The university also predicted that former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley will be Sanders' vice president.

So how did the university reach its conclusion about Sanders? While his main opponent in the Democratic field, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, is leading in many polls, Sanders has managed to raise support from small donors at an unprecedented pace. The senator has supporters from a variety of demographics, explains Liberal America, which makes him a highly electable candidate. And a recent Quinnipiac poll found that Sanders is polling better than all of the GOP's 2016 presidential candidates, including Donald Trump.

In WIU's mock presidential election, Sanders garnered more than 400 Electoral College votes. A proposed Jeb Bush/Marco Rubio ticket, meanwhile, earned just 114 Electoral College votes in the mock election. As for the popular vote in WIU's mock election, Sanders beat Clinton in 22 out of 26 primary states there, too.

Thousands of students at the university simulated the election process, including Iowa Caucuses, state primaries, nominating conventions, and the Electoral College vote, from October 20 to November 2, in order to determine the results.

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