U.S. is Prepared to Invoke Military Option if Nuclear Deal with Iran is Not Reached
President Obama has consistently said that “all options remain on the table” to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon—diplomatic-speak for the use of military force. Yet Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu has been far more blunt and straightforward, going so far as to order Israeli military planners in 2010 to begin preparing for a unilateral air campaign against Iran’s nuclear-enrichment facilities. It’s conceivable, if not entirely possible, given Netanyahu’s strong disagreement with the Obama administration on how to manage the Iranian nuclear portfolio, that Netanyahu will give a similar order in the future. [
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June 30, 2015
CNN - Gathered
around conference tables in Vienna, diplomats are working feverishly to
hammer out the terms of a long-elusive nuclear deal with Iran.
The
official deadline for an agreement is Tuesday, but the parties have all
but declared that talks will not be concluded by the stroke of
midnight. Though the negotiations are likely to continue for at least
several more days in search of an agreement, the remaining obstacles and
dragging timeline are raising questions about whether a deal will be
reached.
Even as officials from the
United States and its allies emphasize their commitment to the
diplomatic process, there's a heightened awareness that failure to reach
a deal could increase the pressure for U.S. military action against
Iranian nuclear sites.
In
an interview in April, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told CNN's Erin
Burnett that while the U.S. is focused on the talks, it is also prepared
to invoke the military option if they fall through.
"We
have the capability to shut down, set back and destroy the Iranian
nuclear program and I believe the Iranians know that and understand
that," Carter said.
Critical
to that capability is the powerful ground-penetrating bomb known as the
Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) -- a 15-ton behemoth that can explode
200 feet underground and is designed specifically to destroy deeply
buried and fortified targets.
The
MOP is the weapon of choice for underground sites such as the ones at
Fordow and Natanz in Iran, which house some of that country's largest
nuclear reactors.
And the bomb is ready for use if needed, Carter said.
A deterrent now, or in the future
Even
if a deal is reached this week, the military's contingency plans could
act as a further deterrent. Iran has a history of conducting nuclear
work in secret, and many in the international community question whether
its government can be trusted to fully roll back the military
dimensions of the nuclear program.
The
very existence of the site at Fordow, buried deep under a mountain near
the city of Qom, was kept hidden from the international community until
2009.
And
Iran's reluctance to provide international inspectors access to nuclear
sites remains a sticking point in the talks, particularly after Iran's
Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted by Iran's official
state news agency last month
as saying his country would not allow inspectors into military facilities.
This
could keep inspectors from the UN nuclear watchdog, the International
Atomic Energy Agency, out of facilities like Parchin, where Iran is
believed to be conducting high explosives testing.
The
U.S. military already maintains targeting folders on thousands of sites
around the world, including all known Iranian nuclear sites.
Plans
for these sites include detailed analysis of target structure, geology,
proximity to civilian populations, air defense and potential risk.
Risks in an attack
There
are also vulnerabilities. The military would have to determine how many
bombs to drop in order to guarantee each site's destruction; the more
sorties required, the easier it is to lose the element of surprise.
Iran also maintains significant coastal air defenses, which would have to be successfully jammed.
At
a congressional hearing last week, Carter told lawmakers he has a
"responsibility to make sure that the military option is real."
"It's not part of the negotiation," he said, "but it's a very, very big role, and we take it very seriously."
Chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey added that he is in
active consultations with regional allies, including Israel.
"If there's a deal," Dempsey said, "I've got work to do with them. And if there's not a deal, I've got work to do with them."
He added, "We're committed to doing that work."
Israeli military action?
Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been one of the most vocal
critics of the negotiations with Iran and has vowed that Israel will act
alone if necessary to stop Tehran from getting a nuclear weapon.
But the Israelis are more limited than the United States in their military capabilities.
Absent
U.S. involvement, they would have to rely heavily on non-stealth F-15s,
which would need to be re-fueled en route to their targets in Iran.
They
also lack the kind of bombs that can reach the low depths of the
Massive Ordinance Penetrator, presumably putting sites like Fordow and
Natanz out of reach.
Israel also risks incurring the ire of the international community if it acts alone.
And
any military strike is unlikely to end Iran's nuclear efforts. As
President Barack Obama told Israel's Channel 2 in May:
"A military
solution will not fix it, even if the United States participates. It
would temporarily slow down an Iranian nuclear program, but it will not
eliminate it."
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